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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 24

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Essendon v Carlton, MCG, 5.30pm

In a match that matters little, how Carlton fans react to Tom De Koning in game 100 is going to attract considerable interest … and so it should. De Koning seems certain to head to St Kilda on a multi-year deal worth around $1.7 million a season.

He will leave a significant hole in the Blues’ following division, although the raw numbers suggest Carlton aren’t that much inferior inside the centre square when Marc Pittonet is their No.1 ruck option. Talking of the centre square, surely it is where Zach Merrett is stationed for most of the night in his 250th appearance.

Merrett is a prolific ball winner and an excellent user, key attributes in a side that has been riddled by injuries and is currently on a losing streak that has reached double figures. If Harry McKay replicates what he did against Port Adelaide last Saturday, the sequence will be extended.

VERDICT: Carlton by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Zach Merrett, George Hewett and Archie Roberts to have 25+ disposals @ $2.50*

FRIDAY

Collingwood v Melbourne, MCG, 5.10pm

Collingwood’s late-season freefall will surely end here. The Magpies did a lot of things right in hostile territory against Adelaide, the premiership favourites. However, they were left to rue their inability to capitalise on a mountain of forward-50 entries.

A similar effort, with a tweaking of their execution forward of centre, will guarantee Melbourne’s wretched season has a predictable finish. The Demons were really poor against Hawthorn, looking every bit a divided outfit they swear they are not.

With a top-four berth on the line and percentage extremely important, it’s safe to assume the Magpies will be dialed in from the outset.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 25 points or more

Same Game Multi: Nick Daicos and Josh Daicos to have 30+ disposals @ $2.80*

Port Adelaide v Gold Coast, Adelaide Oval, 6.10pm

The long goodbye — Ken Hinkley’s final season at the helm as part of a succession plan that saw him effectively moved to one side back in summer — finally ends. And it won’t be a happy ending.

Gold Coast surge into town needing to take care of business in this match and against Essendon at home next week to give themselves a look at a precious double chance. The Power is a long way removed from the sides we have become accustomed to seeing in previous years under Hinkley.

Port would dearly love to send off Hinkley and the retiring Travis Boak in style, but the absence of Ollie Wines (suspension) from the already injury-hit midfield leaves them facing a very tall order.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 25 points or more

Same Game Multi: John Noble and Zak Butters to have 25+ disposals and Noah Anderson to have 30+ disposals @ $3.15*

SATURDAY

North Melbourne v Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 11.20am

Adelaide have dealt with a gigantic distraction this week, something they wouldn’t have been expecting in the aftermath of taking down Collingwood before a sold-out crowd last weekend.

Fortunately, they are now entrenched in the top two and know full well that a win here would deliver them a minor premiership and seemingly easier way through to a home preliminary final. The Kangaroos won’t be able to call upon Cam Zurhaar due to injury, leaving them short-handed in attack considering the absence of Nick Larkey.

It would be a massive shock if the North midfield is afforded as much freedom as it enjoyed last Sunday against Richmond, in particular Harry Sheezel.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 25 points or more

Same Game Multi: Adelaide to win and game total over 178.5 points @ $1.94*

Richmond v Geelong, MCG, 2.15pm

Geelong and getting it done through the home-and-away campaign. It is a combination which has stood the test of time in the Chris Scott era. The Cats bank wins early, manage their list superbly and give themselves every chance to peak in September.

That spells trouble for Richmond, fresh off a mauling from North Melbourne and entering this clash without a key plank in their defensive half, Nick Vlastuin (broken leg).

Taking into account the Tigers had issues quelling Harry Sheezel and Luke Davies-Uniacke, it is frightening to think how much footy Bailey Smith and Max Holmes will have.

VERDICT: Geelong by 40 points or more

Same Game Multi: Tyson Stengle to kick 2+ goals and Jeremy Cameron to kick 5+ goals @ $4*

West Coast v Sydney, Optus Stadium, 5.35pm

The end of 2025 can’t come quick enough for West Coast. Barring a miracle, the Eagles will finish the year with a solitary victory.

It is hard to believe that this once mighty club is enduring as much pain as it has for the past few years. And it’s unlikely Sydney will provide them with a great deal of sympathy. The Swans were outclassed by Geelong last round, a rare disappointment in what has been a buoyant back half to the campaign.

The Swans’ overall class fair outweighs that of West Coast and the return of Brodie Grundy from suspension gives them a huge  advantage in the centre square and at stoppages.

VERDICT: Sydney by 40 points or more

Same Game Multi: Sydney to win and Errol Gulden and Brodie Grundy to have 25+ disposals @ $3.10*

SUNDAY

GWS v St Kilda, ENGIE Stadium, 10.20am

Can St Kilda ride the wave of momentum following the seismic news of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera’s signing? Or will there be a sense of “job done” and the slightest of dips in attitude and intensity?

It is impossible to know for sure. What we do know is if GWS bring their A-game, it is at a level that the Saints cannot match at this point in time, even factoring in their four straight victories. The Giants were ridiculously slick against Gold Coast to secure a finals berth and will use this clash as an opportunity to finetune their game.

The Saints would need to improve lengths on their display opposed to Essendon to compete with the hosts.

VERDICT: GWS by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Tom Green, Lachie Ash and Lachie Whitfield to have 25+ disposals @ $2.08*

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle, Marvel Stadium, 1.15pm

Finals have come early for Fremantle. They best be ready because the Western Bulldogs have been playing virtual elimination finals for about a month now as they zero in on a top-eight position.

The Dockers fluffed their lines against Brisbane. Badly. The inability to defend the Lions’ ball movement was poor, as was their finishing in front of goal. They need to be better obviously in both areas, but also proficient at stoppages given how elite the Bulldogs’ midfield is.

Fremantle got the Bulldogs over here earlier in the year and we know Luke Beveridge’s side hasn’t enjoyed much success against the better teams in the league. This is an opportunity they can’t afford to let slip.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs to win

Same Game Multi: Western Bulldogs 1-39 points and Ed Richards to have 25+ disposals @ $3.45*

Brisbane v Hawthorn, Gabba, 5.20pm

Fresh off a stirring backs-to-the-wall win over Fremantle, Brisbane return home for a match of undeniable significance on two fronts — an opportunity to secure a top-four spot with a win in Dayne Zorko’s 300th appearance.

The Lions have been a little basic in games they’ve been expected to win in the back half of year, yet their record in big matches is hard to fault. This contest against a surging Hawthorn surely slides into the “big match” category.

The Hawks are building and will feel their crisp ball use and potency forward of the ball gives them a huge chance of causing an upset.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win

Same Game Multi: Brisbane to win and game total over 168.5 points @ $2.75*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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