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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 22

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Sydney v Collingwood, MCG, 5.40pm

From seemingly being assured of a minor premiership and a saloon passage to the grand final, Sydney are now in the fight of their lives to remain inside the top four by the end of the home-and-away campaign.

The Swans have dropped five of their past six matches and been obliterated in their past two, with the lack of cut through from the midfield and glaring holes over the remainder of the ground proving stark. Now they face the prospect of subduing a re-energised Collingwood fresh off delivering Scott Pendlebury a moment he will cherish forever.

Swans coach John Longmire gave his shell-shocked players a couple of days off following the mauling from Port Adelaide to freshen up mentally and physically. His approach might be one of the last levers he can pull.

VERDICT: Sydney to win

SATURDAY

Brisbane v GWS, Gabba, 11.45am

In a season where the margin between success and failure is so small, back-to-back two-point wins achieved by GWS are like rolled gold. The victories have them in the frame to finish top four, perhaps even top two, at the end of round 24.

Talking of aiming high, Brisbane could finish this round in top spot with another win here and a Sydney defeat. A remarkable accomplishment considering they started 2-5 and were on the brink when smacked by the Giants in the nation’s capital earlier in the year.

Jesse Hogan has booted 22 goals in the past five weeks to stake a strong claim to win a maiden Coleman Medal. His tussle with Harris Andrews, the undeniably important Brisbane skipper, will have a huge bearing on the outcome.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 1-39 points

North Melbourne v West Coast, Blundstone Arena, 11.45am

Just 19 points have separated these two teams in their past three encounters, with the last-gasp win of North Melbourne in Perth mid-year ratcheting up the pressure on Adam Simpson.

Since his axing, the Eagles have been considerably more competitive, with last Friday night’s come-from-behind victory over Gold Coast validating the strides forward under Jarrad Schofield. North have also come along in leaps and bounds since the halfway mark of the season and posted their third win of 2024 when beating Richmond.

Luke Davies-Uniacke was sublime, tallying 33 disposals and three goals to further enhance his All-Australian claims, while Tristan Xerri has been a revelation.

VERDICT: North Melbourne to win

Fremantle v Geelong, Optus Stadium, 2.35pm

When you talk in-form key forwards, Josh Treacy, Jeremy Cameron, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Jesse Hogan quickly spring to mind. Sadly for Fremantle, they will not be able to call on the recently re-signed Treacy (knee) for a match that has massive implications on their finals hopes.

His absence places greater pressure on Jye Amiss and Luke Jackson forward of the ball against a backline that, at its best, is extremely effective. However, the Dockers’ team defence has befuddled Geelong in recent times and promises to be a stumbling block once more, even with skipper Alex  Pearce (broken arm) missing.

Fremantle’s work in and around stoppages is very sound, with the availability of Nat Fyfe after a week’s suspension timely opposed to a Patrick Dangerfield-led midfield.

VERDICT: Fremantle to win

Essendon v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium, 5.30pm

There will be a time when Gold Coast record a long-awaited win away from a home venue. They have dropped their past 17 “road” matches dating back to last year, a record that has seen fall out of finals calculations.

And while they are entitled to think they’re good enough to take the scalp of Essendon for the second time in 2024, the Bombers should be revitalised for this assignment after storming home to defeat Fremantle at the MCG last round.

The Bombers’ looked a different outfit with Darcy Parish back in the mix, while Jake Stringer and Jade Gresham combined for seven goals. If Essendon are to sneak into September, this is a must with Sydney and Brisbane waiting in the final fortnight of the year.

VERDICT: Essendon to win

Melbourne v Port Adelaide, MCG, 5.30pm

Port Adelaide have tested the patience of their supporters and neutrals alike for their inability to get it done at the pointy end of seasons under Ken Hinkley. It appeared mid-year that the hammer could even fall on Hinkley despite him being contracted for 2025.

But the Power have switched on over the past month and, like so many of their rivals, are entitled to think anything is possible right here, right now. Their past six quarters opposed to Carlton and Sydney have served as a timely reminder of their skillset.

Conversely, Melbourne look fatigued mentally and physically. The absence of Christian Petracca is being felt and Max Gawn’s workload, coupled with a recent leg injury, has taken its toll.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide to win

SUNDAY

Carlton v Hawthorn, MCG, 11.10am

If a body of work is a critical component to helping decide who you tip from week to week, it’s mighty hard to go past Hawthorn here. Forgiving their last quarter against GWS, the Hawks are one of the form sides of the league, winning 10 of their last 13 matches.

They have closed the gap on so many of their top-eight rivals, including Carlton. The Blues have dropped four of their last five and look anything but the team that produced one of the more dominant displays of the year when crushing Geelong in round 15.

An inability to produce four quarters is a huge Achilles Heel, as is the health of their squad. There is only so much Patrick Cripps can do.

VERDICT: Hawthorn to win

Richmond v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium, 1.20pm

The last person to leave Punt Road, please turn off the lights. If we are to be believe what we read and hear, Daniel Rioli, Liam Baker, Shai Bolton, Jack Graham and Nathan Broad could follow the lead of Dustin Martin and make this season their last at Richmond.

It would leave them with a stack of high draft selections, but short on experience and talent. Some would argue therein lies the Tigers’ issue this year due to an injury list that has no doubt caused rookie coach Adem Yze swag of sleepless nights.

St Kilda were exposed by Brisbane last weekend, but a banged-up Richmond at a venue the Tigers struggle at is a completely different proposition.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 1-39 points

Adelaide v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval, 2.10pm

There are a couple of ways to look at this game through a Western Bulldogs lens. Luke Beveridge’s side is low-level flying at present and enter round 22 bullish with six wins in their past seven outings. The only wrinkle in that time was a shoddy effort that led to a spanking from Port Adelaide … at Adelaide Oval.

If the Bulldogs hit the contest with more intensity early doors here as opposed to what they produced against Port, they should be fine. All facets of their game are in excellent order, with Rory Lobb’s shift to defence helping fix an area of concern.

Adelaide stretched the neck of Geelong last weekend and will be boosted by the return from suspension of Izak Rankine, who is jostling with the skipper Jordan Dawson for the title as the Crows’ best player.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points

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