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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 16

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

SATURDAY

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide, Metricon Stadium, 5.40pm

For football fans desperately looking for a fix of Australian Rules on a Saturday, this can’t come quick enough. For North Melbourne supporters wondering how the backside has fallen out of their team’s season, this might be hard to watch.

Port Adelaide are within touching distance of a minor premiership and know very well what is on offer if they can continue on their winning ways. Given what the Kangaroos have dished up in recent weeks, it would be a shock if that didn’t occur.

Robbie Gray’s performance against Sydney last weekend further underlined his class and gave us all another glimpse of his rare skill set.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 34 points

SUNDAY

St Kilda v Hawthorn, Metricon Stadium, 11.05am

St Kilda had their finals aspirations boosted this week when Melbourne butchered their assignment opposed to Sydney in Cairns. But the Saints don’t have the luxury of resting on their laurels after narrow losses to Brisbane and Melbourne.

Reinforcements are on the horizon, although Brett Ratten will probably have to make do with the bulk of his squad he has had access to of late. That should be sufficient to account for Hawthorn, who were listless against Adelaide and paid a high price.

The Hawks selected an experienced team to see off the threat posed by the Crows. Now that round has passed, Alastair Clarkson’s response will be fascinating.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 25 points

Geelong v Essendon, Gabba, 1.35pm

Geelong could be excused for taking their eye off the ball here, peek into the future and think about what lies ahead against Richmond in round 17.

But you sense Chris Scott and his players are very much focused on the present and that means taking down Essendon before girding the loins for next Friday night’s showdown with Richmond, a clash that could decide premiership favouritism.

The Bombers’ finals hopes dissipated with their loss to West Coast, a defeat compounded by a serious ankle injury to Andrew McGrath. His absence will be felt here against a quality Cats outfit.

VERDICT: Geelong by 28 points

Western Bulldogs v West Coast, Metricon Stadium, 4.10pm

West Coast haven’t fired on all cylinders in their second stint in the Queensland hub. To say though that their displays are a marked improvement on what we saw early doors however, is an understatement of some note.

A competitive effort against Richmond was followed by a crucial victory over Essendon. Yet the loss of Luke Shuey with twin hamstring injuries in that game, coupled with the unavailability of Elliot Yeo, could well be felt here against a Western Bulldogs line-up stacked with on-ball options.

The Bulldogs had Geelong on the ropes at quarter-time last Friday night, only to be run down late. With so much at stake, it would be a shock if Luke Beveridge’s troops didn’t come out snarling.

VERDICT: West Coast by 3 points

MONDAY

Melbourne v Fremantle, Cazaly’s Stadium, 5.10pm

Melbourne fluffed their top-eight lines last week when stunned by Sydney at a windy Cazaly’s Stadium. They simply cannot afford to come up short again tonight opposed to Fremantle if they want to be active beyond the home-and-away season.

The Demons made a host of changes at selection and while the likes of Angus Brayshaw, James Harmes and Nathan Jones will be missed, the key planks of their campaign, chiefly Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Max Gawn, Steven May and Jake Lever remain in place.

Fremantle stretched the neck of Richmond last Wednesday, but again their inability to kick a large total worked against them. It is an area Justin Longmuir knows needs addressing. Seeing if adjustments have been made in preparation for this match will be intriguing.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 12 points

SAME GAME COMBO: Dees Win + Oliver / Petracca / Langdon all get 20+ disposals @ $2.90

TUESDAY

Adelaide v GWS, Adelaide Oval, 3.40pm

Greater Western Sydney averted disaster last week against Carlton to remain in the top-eight conversation. It was a result that came on the back of an instinctive last-term surge, a platform Leon Cameron will be looking to build on.

Adelaide have improved noticeably over the past month and were finally rewarded for their toil with a thumping victory against Hawthorn last round. Their ability to win the football at the coalface and then link up with the forwards was a marked improvement on what we saw earlier in the year.

The Giants, for all their faults however, can be efficient defensively and will be harder to score against than the Hawks.

VERDICT: GWS by 17 points

Carlton v Sydney, Metricon Stadium, 6.10pm

When two sides who are going to miss finals meet at this stage of the season, there is normally a more relaxed nature to the contest.

For Carlton though, that does not apply. The Blues have slipped from post-season calculations on the back of defeats to Collingwood and Greater Western Sydney after being in control at key stages of both. David Teague needs to extract another win from his troops.

It won’t be easy. Sydney stunned Melbourne in Cairns last week and the challenge for John Longmire’s young side is to follow it up to further reinforce the rebuild is taking shape.

VERDICT: Carlton by 10 points

WEDNESDAY

Brisbane v Gold Coast, Gabba, 5.10pm

Life at Brisbane for the next six weeks without the hamstrung Harris Andrews starts tonight against Gold Coast in what presents as a real banana-skin game for Chris Fagan’s team.

Brisbane had to work overtime to get past Collingwood last week and on ladder positions, should enjoy a smoother run here. But the Suns are as well rested as you can be in this compressed season and have the overall talent to stretch the necks of Brisbane.

There is very little to separate the sides in key statistics this year, including disposals, clearances, contested possessions and inside 50s. Brisbane are perhaps a little more efficient in general play, although their lack of finishing in front of goal remains a concern.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 13 points

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