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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 15

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Geelong v Melbourne, GMHBA Stadium, 5.20pm

Geelong couldn’t have done any more early in their clash with Port Adelaide last week. However, by the time the final siren sounded, they had been opened up behind the ball, lost captain Patrick Dangerfield to injury and fell a game and percentage behind eighth-placed Adelaide.

To say that raises the stakes for this clash is an understatement of note. The Cats have very little wriggle room left to mount a proper finals assault and will be stretched to the limit by a rested and confident Melbourne side, which took down Collingwood before the bye.

The Demons might not be in a position to cash in on Geelong’s defensive shortcomings, but their experience and plethora of big bodies should hold them in good stead.

VERDICT: Melbourne to win

FRIDAY

St Kilda v Brisbane, Marvel Stadium, 5.50pm

St Kilda had a golden opportunity to thumb the nose at the doubters in their round-14 match against Richmond. Having established a four-goal lead in the first term, it seemed Ross Lyon’s men were poised to do exactly that.

But they couldn’t maintain the rage and, not for the first time in Lyon’s second coming at the Saints, their inability to defend stoutly proved costly. It is significant as Brisbane, their opponents this round, can score heavily and quickly.

The Lions amassed a heap of scoring shots in the win over Sydney and are far more content at Marvel Stadium than the MCG when venturing south.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win

SATURDAY

Sydney v West Coast, SCG, 2,35pm

Fingers crossed for all concerned at West Coast that the second half of 2023 is more prosperous than the first part of the year. Those with links to Sydney would be hoping the same.

The Swans, like the Eagles, have struggled to field their best available 22 because of injuries and as such, shape as spectators in September. They are no longer a feared opponent at the SCG, but this assignment is kinder than ones they have been exposed to previously.

The Swans showed flashes against Brisbane, but were unable to sustain it. The prospect of key personnel returning is also hugely beneficial to John Longmire.

VERDICT: Sydney to win by 40 points or more 

Fremantle v Essendon, Optus Stadium, 5.25pm

Fremantle have reached the point of no return. Back-to-back losses post-bye to Richmond and GWS, leaves their finals aspirations on life-support. They won’t survive if they go under to Essendon.

The Bombers will look to defy the alarming trend that isn’t kind to teams the week after some R&R when they visit WA for the second time in quick succession, with the availability of Darcy Parish a welcome return. Alarmingly though, doubts surround Sam Draper.

Conversely, the Dockers are expected to welcome back Sean Darcy, who has missed the past two weeks with a hamstring strain. He is critically important to his team’s flow.

VERDICT: Fremantle to win

SUNDAY

Collingwood v Adelaide, MCG, 11.10am

The Collingwood bubble burst in their King’s Birthday stoush with Melbourne. If you are all-in with the Magpies to win the premiership, don’t be alarmed.

They were not only missing a host of quality players, notably Jordan De Goey, Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe, but illness had gone through the group. Refreshed and ready to welcome back Howe, this assignment against an interstate rival suspect away from its home ground sets up beautifully.

Adelaide have taken giant strides this year. The challenge now is to not only build on that, but become far more robust outside of SA. What better challenge than Collingwood at the MCG?

VERDICT: Collingwood by 1-39 points

Gold Coast v Hawthorn, Heritage Bank Stadium, 2.40pm

Expect Gold Coast to bounce back big time here. Stuart Dew’s long-time post as senior coach of the Suns depends on it.

Flogged by Carlton last weekend after hitting the mid-season bye with momentum, the Suns are now likely to miss finals yet again, extending a post-season drought that is no laughing matter.

Hawthorn felt the same way last week and again this week when James Sicily’s tackle of Hugh McCluggage received no love at AFL House. The last time the Hawks were without their skipper, they were on the end of a hiding. Port Adelaide in SA is different than the Suns in Queensland, but Hawthorn’s defence is shaky without Sicily.

VERDICT: Gold Coast to win by 25 points or more 

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