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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 1

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Richmond v Carlton, MCG, 4.25pm

If there was one club which had the capacity to get ahead of itself over summer, it would have been Richmond. Having witnessed the Tigers in the pre-season, that clearly hasn’t happened.

Damien Hardwick’s charges look fit, engaged and eager to pick up where they left off in stirring fashion against Adelaide. And that spells trouble for Carlton, who have shown positive signs themselves entering a third year under Brenton Bolton, but will get to work here minus Bryce Gibbs (Adelaide) and Sam Docherty (knee reconstruction).

The Tigers will be missing several key members of their premiership side, yet it’s fair to assume their elite talent in Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt and Alex Rance will set a standard that is beyond Carlton’s reach.

VERDICT: Richmond by 31 points

FRIDAY

Essendon v Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 4.50pm

Having endured two compromised seasons at the helm of Essendon, coach John Worsfold finally gets clean air in 2018. Indeed, the recruitment of Jake Stringer, Adam Saad and Devon Smith suggests the Bombers believe their premiership window is wide open.

So too, it must be said, do Adelaide — and for good reason. Their excellent 2017 campaign was soured by a shoddy display in the grand final. Even taking into account that disappointment and the loss of Jake Lever (Melbourne) and Charlie Cameron (Brisbane), they are still a formidable outfit.

The addition of Bryce Gibbs to strengthen a midfield perceived to be lacking depth is significant, for no other reason than he helps offset the absence of Brad Crouch (groin), who could be missing for the first two months of the year. And with captain Taylor Walker (foot) also sidelined, the Bombers get an opportunity to make a bright start before their home fans.

VERDICT: Essendon by 11 points

SATURDAY

St Kilda v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium, 12.35pm

The time is now for St Kilda. Regarded as one of the sides capable of forcing their way into the top eight in 2017, the Saints came up short. Another September of leisure, as opposed to activity, wouldn’t go down well with the people that matter at the club.

The retirements of Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna, on top of Sean Dempster, deprive coach Alan Richardson plenty of experience, but his next wave of talent has enjoyed sufficient exposure to propel the Saints back into finals calculations.

Brisbane are a fair way removed from that stage and their pre-season, No.2 under Chris Fagan, was more patchy than purposeful. Decorated Hawk Luke Hodge has arrived and had an enormous influence off-field, but how he performs on-field will be intriguing.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 32 points

Port Adelaide v Fremantle, Adelaide Oval, 1.35pm

There are two schools of thought with Port Adelaide. On one hand they have topped up well enough to make a serious run at the premiership. On the other their additions are seen as solid, but not likely to have the desired effect given the profile of their list.

What we do know for sure, is they will be tested by Fremantle. The absence of Robbie Gray (suspension) and the interrupted pre-seasons of Travis Boak and Tom Rockliff, on top of what we have seen from the Dockers over the summer, suggests this game will be a lot closer than many would have envisaged when the fixtures were released.

Fremantle are relatively healthy and again being powered by captain Nat Fyfe, who looks a far more complete and comfortable player than he did 12 months ago. The return of Alex Pearce in defence is a huge boost, while Matt Taberner could finally be the dominant marking forward the club has been chasing.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 19 points

Gold Coast v North Melbourne, Cazalys Stadium, 4.25pm

Those outside the four walls of both Gold Coast and North Melbourne are not anticipating either side will have a lot of joy in 2018. As such, this match takes on considerable importance for both teams, with the Suns in particular looking to rebound from a dreadful 2017 that led to Rodney Eade’s resignation and the appointment of Stuart Dew.

The long-time Sydney assistant coach is clearly working overtime in a bid to make Gold Coast a harder side to score against and such an approach is long overdue. If Dew can have a better run with injury than his predecessor, his cause will be assisted enormously.

The Kangaroos, it seems, have come to terms that they are now in rebuild mode and will be eager to pump as many games into their young talent as they can. However, Luke Davies-Uniacke aside, it could be argued their emerging crop aren’t at the level required.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 19 points

Hawthorn v Collingwood, MCG, 4.25pm

In the ruthless world of professional sport, you are not entitled to anything. You have to earn everything. The harder you work, the luckier you get, they say.

But even the most fierce Nathan Buckley critic would think he is entitled some good fortune, especially on the injury front. Jamie Elliott, Daniel Wells, Alex Fasolo, Tyson Goldsack, Levi Greenwood, Adam Oxley and Jordan De Goey have all had their issues over summer, placing Buckley at a disadvantage in his bid to hit the ground running and keep the wolves from the door.

And the fact the Magpies run headlong into a Hawthorn outfit determined to rebound quickly from an indifferent 2017, only complicates matters for Buckley. The Hawks are a difficult side to get a handle on, but the chatter on the east coast suggests they believe they are well placed to again play finals.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 13 points

SUNDAY

GWS v Western Bulldogs, UNSW, 10.10am

These two sides have developed an intense rivalry in a short space of time, with the defections of Callan Ward, Ryan Griffen and Tom Boyd ensuring the contests contain more than their share of physicality and verbal jousting.

With Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge publicly stating that he is fully expecting his charges to regain their hard-nosed approach which was a feature of their 2016 premiership run, it wouldn’t be a shock if the sparks fly here in the nation’s capital.

But injuries to key personnel leaves the Bulldogs short-changed in the back half and if the Giants are able to win enough ball midfield, the quality of Toby Greene, Jeremy Cameron and Jonathon Patton could well come to the fore.

VERDICT: GWS by 23 points

Melbourne v Geelong, MCG, 12.20pm

The second coming of Gary Ablett to his spiritual home is finally here. Just what impact Ablett is able to have is unknown. As is his durability and ability to navigate a long season in his advancing years.

Certainly the Cats will be hoping he can run amok alongside captain Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield and Mitch Duncan, a high-class quartet that will no doubt trouble many opposition sides. As will the on-ball division of Melbourne in 2018, even though it starts the campaign minus Jack Viney (foot).

The Demons have a history of getting comfortable with themselves far too easily, but the addition of Jake Lever in their defence is massive. Likewise, the summers of Max Gawn and Jesse Hogan would suggest they are well placed to rebound from frustrating 2017 campaigns.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 17 points

West Coast v Sydney, Optus Stadium, 4.20pm

West Coast are of the belief those forecasting their demise are well off the mark. They are adamant there is no reason to suggest they will slide outside the top eight, having not only played finals in 2017, but boasting an extra-time elimination final success against Port Adelaide on the road.

The absence of dual Coleman medallist Josh Kennedy (ankle/knee) robs the forward line of genuine star power, paving the way for Jake Waterman to make his AFL debut. Waterman is a talent, but he and his fellow forwards, including Liam Ryan, are likely to find it hard to kick a bag against the disciplined Swans defence.

At the other end of the ground, the Swans boast none other than Lance Franklin, who looks in super nick. Sydney have had their issues health-wise over summer with San Naismith (knee), Dan Hannebery (calf) and Jarrad McVeigh (calf), but still look a little more settled than the Eagles.

VERDICT: Sydney by 28 points

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