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David Shortte’s AFL Preview: Round 21

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Collingwood v Geelong, MCG, 5.30pm

The Pies made it 6 wins on the trot and produced one of their most impressive performances of the season when coming from behind to defeat Adelaide by 34 points at the Adelaide Oval last week. The victory sees them sitting in 8th spot on the ladder.

Geelong made it 2 wins on the trot when beating Melbourne by 20 points at the MCG last Friday night. They sit in 9th spot on the table, just half a win behind the Pies.

These two sides met back in round 9 at this venue when Geelong were far superior winning by 54 points. Bailey Smith was dominant with 40 disposals and Oli Henry kicked 4 goals.

Geelong bring in Jack Martin for Patrick Dangerfield who is being managed while Lachie Schultz comes in for Brayden Maynard for the Black and Whites.

There is a strong possibility that Oisin Mullin will be paying very close attention to Nick Daicos and Ed Allen has shown himself to be a headache for opposition ball magnets – his match-up on Bailey Smith is a huge contest within this contest.

This match shapes up as a ripper with both teams very comfortable on the big stage. The Cats are missing some of their top end talent but have good depth to cover and the Pies have built up some real momentum late in this season. I have this going right down to the wire and nothing would surprise.

VERDICT: Geelong by 3 points.

Same Game Multi:  Either team to win by 29 points or less, Oli Dempsey and Jhye Clark to both get 15 or more disposals and Scott Pendlebury and Lawson Humphries to both get 20 or more disposals @ $3.15*

FRIDAY

Fremantle v Western Bulldogs, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

Fremantle made it 17 wins from 19 attempts for the season when defeating cross town rivals West Coast by 70 points last Friday night. They remain on top of the table with a 3 game buffer and percentage advantage over the 2nd placed Sydney.

The Doggies were far too classy for Richmond last weekend winning by 57 points. It leaves them in 7th spot on the table with a 12 win, 7 loss record.

The last 3 games between these sides have seen Fremantle prevail by margins of 16 points, 15 points and 12 points.

The Dogs look likely to be without their spearhead Aaron Naughton here and he is a tough man to replace.

Meanwhile Fremantle continue to get it done and competition for spots means that they are not taking their foot off the gas.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 29 points.

Same Game Multi : Murphy Reid to get 20 or more disposals, Andrew Brayshaw and Marcus Bontempelli to both get 25 or more disposals and Josh Treacy to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.15*

SATURDAY

St Kilda v Sydney, Marvel Stadium, 11.05am

Saint Kilda made it 3 wins from their last 4 matches when accounting for the Kangaroos by 31 points last weekend. The match was dominated by Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera who had 46 disposals and kicked 4 majors. The Saints occupy 10th spot on the AFL Table.

Sydney were completely dominant in the Sydney Derby smashing GWS by 51 points and reinforcing why they sit 2nd on the Ladder.

Saint Kilda really need a top eight scalp but Sydney remain a very disciplined and dangerous outfit and should get the job done.

VERDICT: Sydney by 17 points.

Same Game Multi: Sydney to win and Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden, Max Hall, Nick Blakey and Darcy Wilson to all get 20 or more disposals @ $3.80.*

Hawthorn v North Melbourne, UTAS Stadium, 11.35am

The Hawks have filled their boots over the last 3 weeks handing out beltings to beat Carlton by 64 points, Richmond by 70 points and Essendon by 93 points. They remain in 3rd spot on the AFL Table.

Conversely the Kangaroos have had a month to forget losing their last 4 straight matches and dropping to 13th spot on the ladder.

Hawthorn are tuning up for finals and have a magnificent record at this venue. The last 2 times these sides have met have resulted in Hawthorn wins by 124 points and 85 points. I expect Hawthorn to win by a margin.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 63 points.

Same Game Multi: Hawthorn to win by 40 points or more, Luke Parker to get 20 or more disposals, Harry Sheezel to get 25 or more disposals and Jarman Impey to get 25 or more disposals @ $3.35*

Port Adelaide v GWS, Adelaide Oval, 4.35pm

A banged up Port Adelaide brought up their 3rd loss in a row when going down to Brisbane at the GABBA by 59 points last weekend. They sit in 15th spot.

The enigmatic GWS Giants were simply outplayed by their cross town rivals Sydney last weekend going down by 51 points.

This will go down as one of the toughest matches of the season to predict. Port give it everything they’ve got with a banged up roster while the Giants continue to take their fans on roller coaster rides on almost a weekly basis. Maybe Port with the home ground favours.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 7 points.

Same Game Multi: Clayton Oliver, Jason Horne-Francis and Lachie Whitfield to all get 25 or more disposals and Mitch Georgiades to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.20*

Carlton v Brisbane, Marvel Stadium, 5.40pm

The Blues produced one of their wins of the season last week knocking off the Suns by 13 points and in the process moved themselves in to 11th spot, within striking distance of a Wild Card opportunity.

Brisbane have really hit their straps and are starting to look menacing. Their 59 point win over Port was commanding and they now find themselves in 4th spot on the AFL table.

The back to back Premiers Brisbane are firing at the right time of the season and look hard to beat.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 17 points.

Same Game Multi: Sam Walsh, Jagga Smith and Lachie Neale to all get 25 or more disposals and Kai Lohmann to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.45*

SUNDAY

Richmond v West Coast, MCG, 11.10am

The Tigers have lost their last 8 in a row and their last three by margins of 46 points, 70 points and 57 points. They sit in last position on the ladder.

The Eagles have lost their last 7 in a row including a hefty 70 point loss to the Dockers last week but there have certainly been some encouraging signs from some of their younger talent base. They sit in 16th place.

Richmond will take heart from the fact they defeated West Coast when these two sides met at Optus Stadium in round 8 but I have been more impressed with West Coast over the course of the season and I will tip them to get the 4 points here.

VERDICT: West Coast by 8 points.

Same Game Multi: Tim Kelly, Marcus Herbert and Jack Ross to all get 20 or more disposals, Harley Reid to get 25 or more disposals and Jake Waterman to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.70*

Gold Coast v Melbourne, People First Stadium, 1.15pm

Gold Coast are in a horror stretch of form dropping their last 9 games in a row. They have seen their season evaporate in front of their very eyes and now sit in 14th place on the table.

Melbourne lost to Geelong by 20 points last weekend but they remain in 6th spot and have plenty left to play for in season 2026.

It’s crazy to think that a team with as much raw talent as the Suns possess could lose 9 straight but they have and until they win again I can’t bring myself to tip them.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 7 points.

Same Game Multi: Jack Steele, Tom Sparrow and Touk Miller to all get 20 or more disposals and John Noble to get 25 or more disposals @ $3.30*

Essendon v Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 2.40pm

Essendon pulled off one of the upsets of the season a fortnight ago defeating GWS by 3 points but all around it are losses by 67 points, 90 points and 93 points. They are in 17th spot on the Ladder.

Adelaide will be looking to bounce back after losing to Collingwood by 34 points last weekend. They have finals well and truly on the radar sitting in 5th place on the table.

The Crows have lots to play for here and look the goods.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 49 points.

Same Game Multi: Sam Berry and Izak Rankine to both get 20 or more disposals, Jordan Dawson to get 25 or more disposals and Riley Thilthorpe and Taylor Walker to both kick 2 or more goals @ $3.85*

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