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David Shortte’s AFL Preview: Qualifying & Elimination Finals

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Fremantle v Hawthorn, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

First placed Fremantle takes on fourth placed Hawthorn in the first of the Qualifying Finals and what an absolute belter of a match this promises to be.

Let’s first take a look at the two sides records over the season, over the last 10 rounds, over the last 4 weeks, and their last match.

Fremantle

Finishing Position : 1st

Season Record : 19 Wins 4 Losses

Last 10 Rounds : 7 Wins 3 Losses

Last 4 Rounds : 2 Wins 2 Losses

Last Match : Carlton 18.11 119 defeated Fremantle 12.10 82 by 37 points at Marvel Stadium

Hawthorn

Finishing Position : 4th

Season Record : 15 Wins 6 Losses 2 Draws

Last 10 Rounds : 7 Wins 2 Losses 1 Draw

Last 4 Rounds : 2 Wins 1 Loss 1 Draw

Last Match : Hawthorn 16.11 107 defeated West Coast 6.9 45 by 62 points at Optus Stadium

Fremantle have had a stellar season and had top spot pretty much sewn up with a month to go and took the opportunity to rest some key personnel over the last month. With nothing on the line in relation to their finishing position they did lose a bit of their hard edge and accordingly lost two of their final 4 games in the build up to finals. Some pundits have posed the question can the Dockers simply flick the switch to recapture their best for finals? We will find out on Thursday night.

Hawthorn have had another first class season and they rounded out their home and away season with a dominant 62 point win over West Coast at Optus Stadium in wet conditions.

These two sides have crossed paths just once this season – they met in Round 9 at Optus Stadium in an epic encounter where the Dockers were forced to press the go button on Wharfie Time in the final quarter and boy did it fizz up the contest.

Fremantle came from 19 points down at the 12 minute mark of the last quarter. They played some of their most potent football of the season over the concluding stages piling on five goals to win by 15 points

In their most recent meeting the top 8 key disposal winners and multiple goal scorers for both sides were as follows :

Fremantle : Serong 28, Brayshaw 24, Jackson 22, Bolton 22, Reid 20, Frederick 19, Clark 19, Ryan 18

Hawthorn : Amon 31, Newcombe 26, Battle 24, Sicily 22, Impey 22, Ward 21, Mackenzie 20, Nash 19

Fremantle : Frederick 3, Amiss 3, Treacy 2

Hawthorn : Gunston 6, Watson 3

Fremantle Player to Watch : Jye Amiss : Finished 5th on the League Goal kicking ladder with 58 goals in 22 matches at an average of more than 2 and a half per match. Has been running hot late in the season with goal tallies of 4 and three bags of 5 in his last handful of matches.

Hawthorn Player to Watch : Jack Gunston : The veteran goal sneak has had another awesome season kicking 59 goals in 17 matches at an average of 3.5 per match. Has bags of 7 and 5 in his last handful of matches and when these 2 sides met here in round 9 he was exceptional slotting 6 majors.

Fremantle have made five changes to their side for this contest with Murphy Reid, Jye Amiss, Sam Switkowski, Heath Chapman and Brandon Walker all coming in at the expense of Brennan Cox, Judd McVee, Tobyn Murray, Chris Scerri and Bailey Banfield.

The Hawks have just one change with Jack Ginnivan coming in for Jack Dalton.

Both sides will come in to this contest fresh and I am expecting a quality contest between two tremendous teams. The reward Fremantle receive for finishing on top of the ladder is home ground advantage for this Qualifying Final and their 12 win, zero loss record in the home and away season at Optus Stadium underlines just how much they enjoy playing on their home deck.

Fremantle have been spectacular for the vast majority of this season and now it is time to see how they measure up when it matters most. I think in front of a full house at Optus Stadium the Dockers will relish the opportunity to announce to the competition they are the real deal.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 17 points

Same Game Multi:  Shai Bolton and Luke Jackson to both get 15 or more disposals and Jack Gunston and Josh Treacy to both kick 2 or more goals @ $3.10*

FRIDAY

Geelong v Carlton, MCG, 5.40pm

Another fascinating final lies ahead here with the perennial contenders Geelong running in to the Wild Card winners Carlton.

Let’s first take a look at the two sides records over the season, over the last 10 rounds, over the last 4 weeks, and their last match.

Geelong

Finishing Position : 5th

Season Record : 15 Wins 8 Losses

Last 10 Rounds : 7 Wins 3 Losses

Last 4 Matches : 4 Wins

Last Match : Geelong 20.13 133 defeated Richmond 11.10 76 by 57 points at GMHBA Stadium

Carlton

Finishing Position : 10th

Season Record : 13 Wins 10 Losses 1 Draw

Last 10 Rounds : 7 Wins 2 Losses 1 Draw

Last 4 Weeks : 3 Wins 1 Draw

Last Week : Carlton 10.14 74 defeated Melbourne 7.13 55 by 19 points at the MCG

Both sides head in to this contest in very good recent form. Geelong are well rested after having the week off while Carlton passed yet another test in the Wild Card round defeating the sixth placed Melbourne.

These sides have played each other just once in the regular season, in round 12, where a late Patrick Cripps goal saw the Blues prevail by 4 points at the MCG.

In their most recent meeting the top 8 key disposal winners and multiple goal scorers for both sides were as follows :

Geelong : Smith 35, Holmes 25, Stewart 22, Miers 21, Humphries 21, Guthrie 21, O’Sullivan 18, Dempsey 18

Carlton : Walsh 30, Cripps 30, Smith 27, Newman 25, Ainsworth 25, Wilson 22, Hewett 22, Cowan 20, Acres 20

Geelong : Cameron 4, O Henry 2, J Henry 2, Dempsey 2

Carlton: Hayward 3, Young 2, Kemp 2

BAZ BALL : Bailey Smith has had another outstanding season averaging more than 32 disposals per match for the Cats. In 17 of his 22 matches he has managed more than 30 disposals, in 6 more than 35 and he has had 40 disposals on three separate occasions this season.

SMITH ON THE RISE : Rising Star winner Jagga Smith has fast become one of the most important players in the Blues outfit averaging 25 disposals per game over his 24 match season. He was superb in Carlton’s Wild Card win over Melbourne where he had 29 disposals and kicked 2 goals. The big question for this match will be who does Geelong Clamper Oisin Mullen focus his attention on? The trio of Smith, Walsh and Cripps can all hurt you in different ways but Smith is the youngest and perhaps most vulnerable to be affected by a heavy tag? I am thinking either Walsh or Smith likely get the attention so it may pay to be a little cautious with their disposal numbers here.

The MCG will be absolutely heaving on Friday night for a contest that has so much to offer. Can the Carlton Fairytale continue or is this the end of the line? Momentum is a powerful force and the Blues have plenty of it after what they have achieved in the second half of this season under Coach Josh Fraser but Geelong are so experienced in big finals and they are comfortable on the big stage.

This is the sort of game I can see going right down to the last few moments of the match. There was only 4 points separating them last time they met and I think this could be eerily similar. It has all the hallmarks of a nail biting classic!

VERDICT: Geelong by 5 points.

Same Game Multi:  Lawson Humphries and Ollie Dempsey to both get 15 or more disposals, Bailey Smith to get 30 or more disposals and Patrick Dangerfield and Ollie Dempsey to both kick one or more goals @ $3.40*

SATURDAY

Sydney v Brisbane, SCG, 1.15pm

Up until three weeks ago this match had all the makings of a finals classic but the club imposed suspension of five of the most important players on the Swans roster has left Sydney badly exposed against an opponent who are breathing fire.

Let’s take a look at the two sides records over the season, over the last 10 rounds, over the last 4 weeks, and last week.

Sydney

Finishing Position : 2nd

Season Record : 18 Wins 5 Losses

Last 10 Rounds : 7 Wins 3 Losses

Last 4 Weeks : 4 Wins

Last Match  : Sydney 17.21 123 defeated North Melbourne 10.10 70 by 53 points at the SCG

Brisbane

Finishing Position : 3rd

Season Record : 16 Wins 7 Losses

Last 10 Rounds : 9 Wins 1 Loss

Last 4 Weeks : 3 Wins 1 Loss

Last Match : Brisbane 25.9 159 defeated Collingwood 15.6 96 by 63 points at the MCG

These two sides have met twice this season with Sydney defeating Brisbane by 44 points in round 1 at the SCG before the Lions flipped the result at the GABBA in round 16 winning by 43 points.

In their most recent meeting the top 8 key disposal winners and multiple goal scorers for both sides were as follows :

Brisbane : W. Ashcroft 30, Neale 27, Dunkley 26, L Ashcroft 24, Fletcher 21, Bailey 20, Berry 18, Wilmot 16

Sydney : Mills 32, Heeney 30, Warner 28, Sheldrick 28, Rowbottom 23, Bice 23, Blakey 19, Gulden 18, Grundy 18

Brisbane : Rayner 3, Morris 3, McKenna 2, Lohmann 2, Bailey 2, Cameron 2

Sydney : Warner 4, Curnow 3, Rowbottom 2

OH ERROL : Errol Gulden may have missed a healthy portion of the 2026 season through injury but he sure has made up for lost time. Over the last 5 matches he has had disposal counts of 41, 34, 39, 47 and 41. With a stack of Sydney’s key ball winners not playing he will need to be getting plenty of it for them to be any chance.

MORRIS ANYTHING BUT MINOR : It has been another first class season for young gun Logan Morris who finished second on the Goal Scorer’s List with 63 majors from his 22 matches. It is his form over the last three matches that really sparks our interest though – 16 goals in 12 power packed quarters of football. He kicked 4 against Hawthorn and Gold Coast before putting Collingwood to the torch with 8 goals.

While Sydney will be digging deep in to their reserves to field their team Brisbane are the complete opposite. The Lions only 4 injuries are to players outside of their key 23 and the back to back premiers are fit and firing at the right time of the season.

Had Sydney not been in the position they are with the Pullman episode then this whole game would look very different but you have to face reality and quite simply there are no like for like replacements for Heeney, Warner, Blakey, Jordan and Bice.

Brisbane look to be peaking at exactly the right time and while everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for Sydney it has been smooth sailing for the Lions.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 44 points

Same Game Multi : Brisbane to win, Gulden to get 25 or more disposals, Logan Morris and Charlie Cameron to both kick 2 or more goals @ $3.20*

Adelaide v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval, 5.35pm

As DJ Khaled would say – Another One!  What a tremendous Elimination Final to finish off the Finals Week 2 with two of the finest Captains of their generation Jordan Dawson and Marcus Bontempelli crossing swords with Adelaide hosting the Western Bulldogs.

Let’s take a look at the two sides records over the season, over the last 10 rounds, over the last 4 rounds, and last round.

Adelaide

Finishing Position : 6th

Season Record : 15 Wins 8 Losses

Last 10 Rounds : 7 Wins 3 Losses

Last 4 Rounds : 3 Wins, 1 Loss

Last Match : Adelaide 24.13 157 defeated GWS 15.11 101 by 56 points at the Adelaide Oval

Western Bulldogs

Finishing Position : 8th

Season Record : 14 Wins 9 Losses 1 Draw

Last 10 Rounds : 6 Wins 3 Losses 1 Draw

Last 4 Weeks : 2 Wins 1 Loss 1 Draw

Last Week : Wildcard Match : Western Bulldogs 14.12 96 defeated Collingwood 14.9 93 by 3 points at the MCG

Adelaide had a slow start to their season losing 3 of their first 4 matches but since then they have been very good with a 14 win, 5 loss record.

Despite having some injuries to top end talent throughout the season the Doggies have found a way to dig in and their Wild Card win over the Pies last week was again gritty.

These two sides have met twice this season with the Bulldogs beating the Crows by 6 points in round 2 at the Adelaide Oval before Adelaide reversed the result in round 14 at Marvel Stadium winning by 57 points.

In their most recent meeting the top 8 key disposal winners and multiple goal scorers for both sides were as follows :

Adelaide : Laird 35, Dawson 32, Berry 29, Peatling 24, Milera 24, Keays 23, Hall-Kahan 23, Soligo 21

Western Bulldogs : Kennedy 29, Bontempelli 29, Richards 28, Dale 21, Bramble 21, Coffield 20, Budarick 20, Sanders 19

Adelaide : Rachele 4, Thilthorpe 3, Dawson 3, Taylor 2. Pedlar 2,

Western Bulldogs : Naughton 2, Jones 2

TOP RANK : Adelaide Star Izak Rankine looks to be hitting top gear at the pointy end of the season with his last three matches rating off the charts. His disposal counts of 36, 39 and 35 have included double digit clearance numbers and he also managed a cheeky 4 goals last match against the Giants. The Dogs tend not to tag so he should once again get the opportunity to get plenty of the football.

ART MAJOR : Doggies forward Arthur Jones has proven crucial over the past fortnight with 3 goals against Melbourne and a season best 4 goals in the Wild Card win over the Pies last week. He kicked 2 goals last time these two sides met and he is in career best form. He is full of confidence and looms as a danger man inside the Doggies forward 50.

Rotten luck for Doggies midfielder Matt Kennedy who will be missing here due to concussion protocols.

For Adelaide, former Lions Premiership player Callum Ah-Chee looks likely to return for Zac Taylor.

After finishing on top of the ladder and crashing out in straight sets last season Adelaide are eager to make amends here. There has been a lot of media pressure heaped on their Coach and playing group here but I think they can absorb that pressure and deliver the goods on their home turf. In what will be Taylor Walker’s final season I would love to see the Texan light it up at least one more time.

While the Doggies have been brave all season I think the Crows gun powder forward of the ball will be the difference. Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Walker, Rachele, Rankine, Keays and Dawson are all capable of kicking multiple goals and if they get their fair share of supply I expect them to put a healthy score on the board.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 33 points

Same Game Multi : Izak Rankine and Jordan Dawson to both get 25 or more disposals, Darcy Fogarty to kick 2 or more goals and Taylor Walker to kick a goal @ $3.85*

VALUE MULTI

I’ll also be taking a value Multi across three of the games with Luke Jackson to get 15 or more disposals, Izak Rankine to get 30 or more disposals, Josh Treacy and Charlie Cameron to both kick 2 or more goals and Logan Morris to kick 3 or more goals @ $15.22*

*Odds correct at time of publication.

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