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Robbie Von’s F1 – Italian Grand Prix Preview

Posted on | Posted by Robbie Von

WELL, THAT FAIRYTALE DIDN’T LAST LONG. NOW TO MONZA FOR ANOTHER HARD LUCK STORY.

First up, let’s address the elephant in the room. Last week I told you Zandvoort had never seen Max Verstappen off the podium, and asked why the last ever Dutch Grand Prix would be any different.

Lap one. Final banked corner. Into the wall. Red flag. Race over.

Sorry Max. Sorry Holland. Sorry to everyone who fancied the fairytale. Sometimes the script writes itself… and sometimes it crashes and burns in front of 100,000 Dutch F1 fans!

ZANDVOORT IN BRIEF

Lando Norris won it. Back to back after Hungary, and suddenly McLaren look like the form team on the grid. He lost the lead to Antonelli at the standing restart, then hunted him down on fresher tyres and sailed around the outside on lap 54. The reigning champ has his mojo back. Antonelli second, Russell third. Russell had won Saturday’s Sprint, then got told to move aside so Antonelli could chase Norris. Team orders at their most brutal.

WHERE THE CHAMPIONSHIP STANDS

Antonelli: 242 points. Russell: 183. Hamilton: 183. Norris: 159. Leclerc: 155. Verstappen: 112. Piastri: 104.

Fifty-nine points clear with 11 races to go, and Russell and Hamilton are dead level fighting over second. Mercedes lead the Constructors by 87 points from Ferrari.

MONZA. AND A PENALTY NOBODY WANTED

This is the storyline of the weekend and it’s a heartbreaker!

Kimi Antonelli is Italian. He leads the World Championship. He arrives at Monza for his home Grand Prix in front of a crowd that would go absolutely berserk for him.

And Mercedes are giving him a grid penalty. Ruthless, but that’s a team fighting for a championship. Reliability problems mean they cannot get to the end of the season without taking a power unit penalty on both cars, so they have done the maths and decided Monza is the best place to wear it. Antonelli takes a full new power unit and starts towards the back. Toto Wolff didn’t sugarcoat the decision. He said the “algorithms do not take nationality into consideration” and that they are there to fight for a championship, not to get the most PR. Cold.

THE TIFOSI AND A TRIBUTE 30 YEARS IN THE MAKING

The Italian fans might be a bit torn this weekend, but you know where the noise is going. Monza is Ferrari country and always will be. And this year there is something extra. 2026 marks 30 years since Michael Schumacher joined Ferrari, and 20 years since his final win for the Scuderia, which came right here at Monza in 2006 on the day he announced his first retirement.

Ferrari have made special race suits for Hamilton and Leclerc carrying Schumacher’s logo and the seven stars from his helmet, one for each world title. If either of them wins this weekend wearing that, in front of that crowd, on that podium, the place will lose its mind.

THE TEAMS

McLaren

Norris is favourite at $2.50 to win and $1.25 Top 3 after back to back victories. Monza suits the McLaren too. Piastri at $15.00 to win and $3.75 Top 3 is still searching for a result to match his teammate.

Mercedes

Antonelli has drifted from $2.70 last week out to $11.00 to win, which tells you everything about that grid penalty. But hold on. He came from seventh to finish third in Hungary and from the restart at Zandvoort he was quick enough to lead. Antonelli Top 3 at $3.00 from the back of the grid is genuinely interesting.

Russell at $3.25 to win and $1.50 Top 3 becomes Mercedes’ main hope this weekend and he is level with Hamilton in the championship. Big motivation.

Ferrari

Both Ferraris sit at $8.00 to win and $1.75 Top 3. Home race, Schumacher tribute suits, the championship leader starting from the back, and the Tifosi in full voice. If ever there was a weekend for Ferrari to deliver, this is it. Those prices look generous to me.

Worth a look too, Ferrari Fastest Pit Stop at $4.25. They will be up for this one in every department.

Red Bull

Verstappen at $15.00 to win and $3.25 Top 3. Sixth in the championship with four podiums and no wins, which sums up his season perfectly. Best driver on the grid, nothing to show for it. Hadjar’s wrist is still in doubt so Lawson may keep the seat.

Season Bets

Have a look at what the last fortnight has done to the championship market. Norris was $26.00 before Hungary. He is now $9.00 after back to back wins. Antonelli is still a raging favourite at $1.30, with Russell and Hamilton both $8.00 and Leclerc $26.00. If McLaren keep this form going, that Norris price will keep shortening.

PLAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND

Charles Leclerc to Win – $8.00 (Ferrari home race, Schumacher tribute, surely)

Lewis Hamilton Top 3 – $1.75

Kimi Antonelli Top 3 – $3.00 (from the back, but this kid has no fear)

Lando Norris to Win – $2.50 (two on the trot and counting)

Ferrari Fastest Pit Stop – $4.25

Monza is the Temple of Speed. Add a Schumacher tribute, a Ferrari home race, a championship leader starting from the back and a McLaren driver on a two race heater. Very interesting!

Happy punting!

Odds correct at time of publication.

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