Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

We race at Rosehill on Saturday where the track will be good. Another strong card with plenty of Group racing to get through. The opener is a 1500m Highway where I’ll lean to the lightly raced (4) BUENOS who makes his city debut. He’s won 3 of 4 all on his home Canberra circuit with excuses at the only defeat. (13) FAN HARDER is also lightly raced with plenty of upside, drawn well gets in nice & light. (2) CHRISTA also in the mix, has placed at this level in the past.

Numbers: 4 – 13 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

Midway time! (2) VETWELVE has raced very consistently of late & without doubt should have finished closer here last start when held up for a run in the straight. He gets his chance for revenge here with the claim & good draw, just needs a little more luck! (5) MODELLA drops back a mile in grade off her latest in Group 2 company when far from disgraced, logical danger. (1) ALABAMA STATE comes out of the same race as the top tip; beaten narrowly he hasn’t fired second up to date however that can all change here.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 1 – 12

Suggested Bet: VETWELVE EACH-WAY.

RACE 3

Tough race. (5) UNLIMITED is the horse in form & he’s of course coming out of the right yard (Waller). Strong from the back at Caulfield he just gave away too much start to the winner last time out. (3) POCKETING can certainly improve here, backs up off a forgivable run last start when closer & too keen, only run this trip resulted in a victory. (6) VEGA MAGNIFICO in the mix as are a few others.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

Golden Slipper winner (8) MARHOONA will start favourite here based on her overall record & first up win in the Heritage a fortnight back. I was keen on her that day & although she prevailed, I just expected her to be a little stronger through the line however I’d suggest she’s got a fair bit of improvement to come & will benefit greatly from the hit out. I’ll put her on top as she doesn’t meet anything stronger opposition wise however wouldn’t be taking red figures. (4) GRAND EAGLE finished that race off well whilst the highly spruiked (1) BEADMAN led & had tempo to suit, no doubt he too will improve fitness wise however it’s hard to see him turning the tables on (8) MARHOONA.

Numbers: 8 – 4 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet: MARHOONA TO WIN ($3 or better).

RACE 5

The two at the top here (1) ESTREMO & (2) FARNICLE head the market for this very competitive looking 3yo however I’m going a touch wider putting (6) OHOPE on top. Only lightly raced he took off a fair way from home last start & kept on coming nicely right to the line. The step up in distance looks very suitable based on that & although up in grade he does drop 3.5kg. (2) FARNICLE was good running home late behind Marhoona fresh, placed behind Cool Archie in the Sires up north in the winter over this trip. Although victorious in the Guineas Prelude (1) ESTREMO had a very soft run in a slowly run race, hard to line that form up.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet: OHOPE EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 6

The Group 3 Gloaming Stakes where all runners bar San Giovani step out to 1800m for the first time, who will be the strongest at the end? Poor alley for (14) WITHIN THE LAW however he is always running on, sound in a dash home last start he’s right in this should luck go his way. (5) PROVIDENCE hasn’t quite delivered as yet, by the same token hasn’t had a lot go his way, wouldn’t be the least surprised to see him put in a big run here at odds. The others all concern me stepping up in distance.

Numbers: 14 – 5 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

(6) GANGSTA GRANNY certainly has the right form lines to get away with this Group 3 for the fillies & mares. Beaten by the super mare Autumn Glow first up she gave the Group 1 winner a real run for her money before wide & without cover less than 2 lengths from Manaal second up, that mare has since won again. Her overall career form is very strong & from the good gate here she’ll be right up there in a striking position in the straight. Right down the bottom I’m giving (16) HUSK a knockout chance, unlucky first up, ran good time winning second up. Steps up plenty in class however only lightly raced in good hands could well be up to the task. Keeping the ex-USA mare (2) POUNCE safe, this trip is short of her best however she did show up at a recent trial & is in the right yard.

Numbers: 6 – 16 – 2 – 14

Suggested Bet: GANGSTA GRANNY TO WIN.

RACE 8

The Group 2 Hill Stakes is all about the Chris Waller trained (2) LINDERMANN who ticks basically all the right boxes bar the barrier. He comes up with a wide draw & may end up parking second, just how much early work he’ll do to slide across is the query however on the map likely not too much. He beat Sir Delius two back before being nailed right on the line by Fangirl his latest, there’s not many better form lines around than those. I’d expect improvement from (9) ELAMAZ who surprised when not going forward first up in the Chelmsford, I’d expect that will happen here. Victorian visitor (10) KINGSWOOD strips fitter for the first up run, must include.

Numbers: 2 – 9 – 10 – 5

Suggested Bet: LINDERMANN TO WIN.

RACE 9

Big field to go around here, max of 17 post scratchings. Very, very tough race to sort. I’m a (1) GRINGOTTS fan however the 61kg concerns me even allowing for the likely soft run. I’ve gone looking for something to beat him however I’m not finding it an easy task. (16) MCHALE is a first up specialist who ran well when resuming beating all bar the winner in an easier race. He did beat GRINGOTTS fresh last prep & gets a 4.5kg weight advantage in his favour which makes it hard for the topweight to turn the tables. I’ll go with him each-way. (12) MISS ROUMBINI was very good running home from last at Caulfield, wide gate, perhaps further? Chances certainly do not end there.

Numbers: 16 – 12 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: MCHALE EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 10

Should there be market support in this closing race for the first up (1) AMAZING EAGLE I’d suggest following it. Only lightly raced he’s had 3 lead-up trials with the latest being a one act affair romping in at Warwick Farm under no urgings. Well drawn he’ll land a favourable run which will help as he does have 60kg to lump. (3) ROSELYN’S STAR & (7) POLYGLOT have similar form lines; both are racing consistently & can figure in the finish.

Numbers: 7 – 5 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet: Follow any market support of for AMAZING EAGLE.

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