Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Another outstanding day of racing coming up on hopefully dry ground, there’s a shower or two about leading in however likely nothing major. We get under way with a Midway where I’m siding with the second-up LOVERO who has been doing her recent racing in midweek company. Doubt this is any harder & she drops 3kg jumping from a good gate. Happy to forgive the first up effort of TREIZE who looked to be on the worst going, lightly raced with a good overall record can bounce back today. LANCASTER BOMBER is generally around the mark in these races.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet: LOVERO EACH-WAY.

RACE 2

INTERVARSITY dominates the market here & I’d suggest that’s fair enough considering she just missed a placing beaten less than a length in Listed company last start & finds her way back to a Highway this afternoon. She did win at this level the run prior & although up in weight & drawn out she’s still got a bit on these. SPIRIT BURNS DEEP draws well & carries no weight; latest run was a good one. MEDINAH won’t be far away.

Numbers: 1 – 14 – 9 – 2

Suggested Bet: INTERVARSITY TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 3

4 acceptors from the Waterhouse/Bott yard amongst the 9 acceptors, they can’t all go forward, nos.1 & 5 the most likely. UNUSUAL LEGACY is only lightly raced with a very good record & did catch the eye running home well first up over 1500m. Did the same last prep before off to Scone at their carnival winning well, big chance history repeats here. FORECASTER comes out of Highway grade where he’s just busting to win a race, yes this is tougher however he gets a decent weight drop. Nos.2, 3 & 8 all in with a place chance, the latter UP AND UNDER was very disappointing last start, there were excuses though & he has been back to the trials & performed ok.

Numbers: 7 – 9 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet: UNUSUAL LEGACY TO WIN.

RACE 4

Just an average bunch to go around in the stayers race this week where CAMPALDINO has come up favourite & I suppose that’s fair however I’d want around $4.00 as he is coming into this race off midweek form. MATUSALEM has won 2 of his past 3 starts, note both have been when on dry ground, should we get that today he’s a chance again, if not I’d be wary, don’t think the major step up in trip will trouble him though. The Victorian visitor COMMANDO DRIFT has placed 3 of 4 attempts over this 2400m distance.

Numbers: 11 – 7 – 10 – 4

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

I’m a fan of the Waller trained MARE OF MT BULLER who resumes here & yes will definitely benefit from the run however she might be classy enough to run a very forward race even if not fully fit. She went around in Group & Listed races last prep placing twice, both lead up trials she’s parked & stayed back in the field going to the line untouched on each occasion, BIG market watch. Not a great gate for VIVY AIR however she’s improving with each run & with luck can win. HIGH DANDY & MISSYOU ELLA also in with chances however they too draw poorly.

Numbers: 4 – 13 – 17 – 9

Suggested Bet: MARE OF MT BULLER EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

Really looking forward to this race. Not only do we get to see JOLIESTAR again, but we also lay eyes on Group 1 winner SUNSHINE IN PARIS who takes her first steps towards The Everest. There is no way in the world I’ll tip against JOLIESTAR who in my opinion is very well named as she’s a star in the making. She toyed with her rivals winning with ease first up & will no doubt be improved fitness wise. SUNSHINE IN PARIS was an Everest slot holder last year before hit by injury, far from disgraced in the autumn on unsuitable heavy tracks, she’s trialled well. COMMEMORATIVE rounds out the trifecta, very promising & very good last start she’s been freshened up for this.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet: JOLIESTAR TO WIN.

RACE 7

LADY SHENANDOAH is a lightly raced filly who impressed earlier this year placing twice, firstly at Warwick Farm & then Doomben in Listed company behind the unbeaten Clean Energy. I marked her down as one to follow in the spring & her recent trial didn’t dull my confidence when going to the line just off the placings with the jock almost holding her back! Not sure about 1400m fresh however she’s well drawn & if not a market drifter is a chance to win fresh. CLEAR PROOF looks the one in the race highly likely to lap up 1400m whilst I can make cases for nos.3, 4, 5 & 10 however there’s a niggle or two for each also.

Numbers: 11 – 2 – 3 – 10

Suggested Bet: LADY SHENANDOAH EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

Run To The Rose for the 3yo’s, how good is this race? Class & potential all over the place. I’m going to stick with STORM BOY who was so dominant in the San Domenico leading from barrier to box, he’s a real beast of a horse now who should benefit from the run. He may not lead this time around as there’s other speed in the race drawn inside him, that’s not a must though. If there’s an upset I’m tipping it will be TROPICUS & I’d suggest to have something on him at the odds, good on debut he then ran very slick sectionals to place behind STORM BOY, 100m further this time around is definitely more suitable however may not be far enough, 1300/1400m would have been ideal. BUSTLING is one of only two Everest slot holders, trialled well, what will he bring to the table? The winning chances certainly don’t end there!

Numbers: 2 – 9 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

This is one tough race. I’m a huge CELESTIAL LEGEND fan however first up & watching his trials he may need the hit out? He’s just looked under pressure at both & didn’t hit his straps until second up last prep when rising to 1400m. 1300m fresh doesn’t look unsuitable on paper, I’m just not convinced though. I really liked the look of MOLLY BLOOM however fear she too will find this too short. Suggest REDIENER may be overs & worth an each way ‘throw at the stumps’. Absolutely nothing wrong with his form, he’s won 4 of his past 5 starts with the miss coming in the Group 1 King Charles at $31. He’s trialled well & is a good horse when fresh, hopefully the plan is to push forward, I’d be surprised if it wasn’t.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 6 – 11

Suggested Bet: REDIENER EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 10

On first glances the inside draw for BLANC DE BLANC doesn’t look ideal. Go back through her form & you’ll find she’s been the victim of wide gates almost her entire career having had little option than to go back early. Her two lead-up trials she began well, I’d suggest she can make a lot more use of the pole gate today than expected. Bad gate for BOOM TORQUE however should he be able to slot across & not go all the way back he’s a definite chance. THE BLACK CLOUD can improve, there were excuses first up.

Numbers: 14 – 2 – 11 – 6

Suggested Bet: BLANC DE BLANC TO WIN.

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