Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

We kick off another big Saturday of racing in Sydney with a 1500m Midway, track likely to be rain affected to some degree, I’ll base tips in the soft range. SMART LEGEND looks well placed third run back from a break, only lightly raced he’s been in the placings both runs this time in & will appreciate the step up in distance. Both PHAROAH’S REIGN & DECADENT TALE tick the form & going boxes whilst GLAD YOU THINK SO draws well & strips fitter, beaten less than a length in G3 company three runs back.

Numbers: 14 – 7 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

Happy to stick with BELVEDERE BOYS in the Highway. He’s a lightly raced, promising type who after a slow getaway gave away too much ground at Randwick before closing strongly late. He gets an additional 200m today & meets the winner of that race 2.5kg better at the weights. VINOLASS gets a start & is promising, fitter for the good return run. ATMOSPHERIC ROCK not hopeless even off the wide alley.

Numbers: 2 – 21 – 4 – 12

Suggested Bet: BELVEDERE BOYS TO WIN.

RACE 3

DIPSY DOODLE will be looking to get across from the wide draw as soon as possible here & not be posted, J. Mac just the man to get that done! She resumed here 3 weeks back & went very hard in the lead over 1200m, stalked by the in-form Our Kobison she was unable to hold him off & ended up running 3rd. Fitter & back 100m suits today. SHEZANALISTER is flying, 3 from 3 this prep got the bob in over Tintookie last start & that one also has Our Kobison form lines.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet: DIPSY DOODLE EACH-WAY

RACE 4

Silver Slipper, another cracking 2yo affair. We all know how highly Storm Boy is rated however here’s a couple from the same yard who might be just as good being ESPIONAGE & STRAIGHT CHARGE. Both have been to the trials winning comfortably in slick time without being pushed out, how do you split them? Well ESPIONAGE did beat STRAIGHT CHARGE in the Breeders after sitting wide & does draw the better gate, that’s all I can come up with & I could easily change my mind… Liked CELERITY’s trial & first up run, not out of this.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 9 – 3

Suggested Bet: Quinella/Box Exacta nos.1 & 2.

RACE 5

Wide open Parramatta Cup where I’ll lean to the second-up DIAMIL should $4 or better be available. Beat all bar Alligator Blood in a trial prior to an impressive race day return at Randwick a fortnight back running on well over 1600m. 1900m today is ideal & the likely give in the ground is definitely in his favour. Freshened up ZENZELLA is only lightly raced & with plenty of upside, unlucky not to win at the Gold Coast. SO UNITED will be up on speed, racing well this prep.

Numbers: 6 – 13 – 11 – 7

Suggested Bet: DIAMIL TO WIN ($4 or better).

RACE 6

MARQUESS looks tough to beat here second-up. The mile first up was always going to be a bit of a task when resuming yet she ran well behind the in-form Amore Victorious & again will carry no weight today, back to 1400m looks ok & his second up record is a good one. ROBUSTO has been a model of consistency this prep & gets a tidy weight drop here, will be finding the line. LITTLE MIX is better suited out over further however fresh she can run a race.

Numbers: 13 – 11 – 8 – 5

Suggested Bet: MARQUESS TO WIN.

RACE 7

LADY LAGUNA gets the nod here. She’s racing in career best form & holds a huge advantage over the bulk of her rivals fitness wise. She handles any type of going & I can’t see any reason as to why she can’t win once again. ZOUGOTCHA just didn’t fire a shot in the spring, when on song she’s better than most if not all of these, she gets J. Mac from an inside draw plus her wet track record is better than her dry. VIENNA PRINCESS has a good fresh record & a strong finish, if close enough at the 200m she’ll be hard to hold out.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

I went with TOM KITTEN first up in the Eskimo Prince however the 1200m & lack of any decent tempo gave him no hope, he was only warming up late doing his best work over the final 100m of the race. Today he gets to 1400m & draws a good alley where he’ll park closer in the run, if handy enough he’s a big chance of mowing down those leaders, I’ll stick! ENCAP comes out of the same race & can also improve, wide gate not great though. Can FUKUBANA measure up? The booking of J. Mac suggests he can.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 11 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

Interesting race, BRUDENELL won at Randwick 2 weeks back in a 4-horse thriller narrowly defeating DERRY GROVE, FRILLED & RENOSU., there was nothing between the lot of them on the line & here they are meeting again. Thought FRILLED was open to the most improvement, she suffered her first defeat in 6 outings that day when leading & giving plenty to the line, fitter this time. RENOSU has a terrific second up record, gate not ideal however has to be included. DERRY GROVE has a liking for wet ground, new to this track though.

Numbers: 11 – 7 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: FRILLED EACH-WAY

RACE 10

DAKOTA VROOM is racing in terrific form this prep, beaten by GENTLY ROLLED last start they lock horns again here with the Waller mare 2kg better off at the weights. She came wide with her run in that race whereas GENTLY ROLLED took the shortcuts, reverse those runs & the result is likely also reversed. HIGH BLUE SEA didn’t fire second up off a long break after winning fresh, not raced since 27/1 can improve.

Numbers: 6 – 19 – 3 – 15

Suggested Bet: DAKOTA VROOM EACH-WAY

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