Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

We race at Randwick on Saturday where the track will be close enough to good with fine weather forecast. An 1100m Midway gets things underway & new season 3yo (10) BANKOK HOTTIE is all the rage in early markets. She’s won 2 of 3 with a valid excuse at the defeat, what worries me about her is we haven’t seen her in a trial & she is over 3 months between runs, she also draws wide & is likely to give away a decent start. She may well be a level above these however at the odds on offer I’d want less concerns. (6) ZARAGOZA should be primed third up & draws a decent gate which likely sees him closer in the run, I’ll lean his way at the much longer odds. (3) CENTURY SONG looks a good chance also.

Numbers: 6 – 10 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 2

The Highway is up next. Happy to follow any market support for the resuming (4) ZUMBO who is only lightly raced & had short, sharp preps to date. No trial leading in however best runs to date have been when on the fresh side, only subpar efforts have come in a Listed race behind Marhoona whilst lame the other. (3) LADY OLENNA can run a race first -up & gets J. Mac to steer, looms as the main danger. Take your pick the rest!

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 16 – 17

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 3

Open race on paper, market has the J. Mac tax in full swing with (5) AVISTA nice & short. She’s won 3 of 4, all provincial though & whilst the latest was dominant/arrogant she had very little in the way of opposition. I’ve tried to find one to beat her however can’t, so on top she goes however I won’t be backing at those odds. (3) PERSIAN WONDER & (8) MAGENTA SKIES can provide the opposition as both have form in stronger races, the formers first up win was a slog though & the latter’s most recent trial just ok.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 4

Suggest Chris Waller’s import (1) MASOUN is close to a breakthrough & this race looks a very suitable assignment. Solid placing two-back behind Grafton Cup winner King Pedro he then made good ground at Rosehill to beat all bar the winner. Stays at this trip once again & with the claim for Siena Grima will carry 1.5kg less than the latest. Stablemate (5) LA TROISIR could well end up the main threat off a last start strong to the line win. (4) AMPLIFY & (6) TRAPALANDA have accepted here & at Eagle Farm, the former is a complete unknown at this trip & is better suited up north. (6) TRAPALANDA luckless two back had his chance last start, he has won up to 2414m however is rising 600m on the latest run so queries on both of those.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 6 – 8

Suggested Bet:  MASOUN TO WIN.

Race 5

(6) PERFECT JUSTICE broke through in maiden grade two starts back before tackling stronger company here last start when going down narrowly after sitting 3 deep throughout. That’s not going to be the case this time around from a good draw & he only rises 1 kilo in weight with the claim for Siena Grima. (7) WARRIOR FOR PEACE has won right up to 2100m & as expected hit the line well first up here over 1300, the step up in distance is a definite plus. (14) LEOVANNI is flying & cannot be overlooked.

Numbers: 6 – 7 – 14 – 4

Suggested Bet: PERFECT JUSTICE TO WIN.

Race 6

No recent trial for (8) AMAZING EAGLE which might be a good thing as he’s likely to be very fresh & hopefully sharp. Not raced for 2 months market moves will be all important however his best runs have been when on the fresh side & he won’t know himself with the big weight drop. (7) PRIMA BELLA comes into the race in top form having won at Flemington last start, her previous 3 outings resulted in a win & placing here over this 1000m trip. (11) ZOURIPPER right in the hunt on form however note he is going around for the third consecutive Saturday.

Numbers: 8 – 7 – 11 – 10

Suggested Bet: AMAZING EAGLE EACH-WAY.

Race 7

Interesting race the Cup Prelude. We have a mix of in-form fit runners, stayers resuming plus a few who are struggling for consistency. (5) TAZIMA is flying this prep having won 4 of his past 5, yes this is a step up in class however he drops 1.5kg, draws softly & is certainly right at his peak fitness wise. J. Mac jumps on however on this occasion that’s not a gamechanger as Siena Grima has been riding this horse so well & has been aboard the past 3 wins. (14) BONIFACE chased him m last start, does get a weight advantage however I’m not of the opinion that’s enough to turn the tables. (4) BELVEDERE BOYS is always thereabouts, seems to have plenty of excuses though, my patience is wearing thin.

Numbers: 5 – 14 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet: TAZIMA TO WIN ($2.50 or better).

Race 8

The day’s highlight is the Group 2 Missile Stakes which signals the spring carnival is almost upon us. (1) ANGEL CAPITAL has been a heartbreaker; things rarely pan out & more often than not he’s the hard luck story. You’d have to think he’s got a bit on these though & under the race conditions is weighted to win which I’m suggesting he will, minus bad luck of course! (7) GANGSTA GRANNY will give a big sight off the rails gate; she ticks a lot of boxes here. (2) NINJA, (3) NAPOLEONIC & (4) MIDNIGHT DYNAMITE in the mix also.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: IT’S A KNOCKOUT EACH-WAY.

Race 9

Doubt many horses would have experienced a campaign as unlucky as (3) SCRIPTED did when last in work having placed 5 of her 6 starts without a win, there’s no doubt she should have won on multiple occasions however things just didn’t pan out. She’s trialled well & should she not drift in the market should prove hard to beat. I’m a fan of (1) MARETH who almost got the money at good odds before spelling, liked her recent trial just draws awkwardly, definitely having a saver though. Suggest one of the two will win the race.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 13 – 2

Suggested Bet: Backing top 2 selections to win.

Race 10

Found this closing race a tough one to sort. (3) COLUMBIA BLUE & (4) WATSON come into the race off last start wins & are only lightly raced with plenty of upside. I’ll lean to the former who draws the better gate draws a little better & won’t get involved in any early possible speed duels. (4) WATSON showed typical Waterhouse/Bott strength to fight off Clear Proof at Canterbury, that one came out & won midweek. (1) READY TO SHINE & (7) MAFIA in the mix as well.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Market Market



Recent Articles