Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

Everest day at Randwick on Saturday plus the Group 1 King Charles, there’s also a cracking support card. Keep an eye on the weather as a storm is possible on Friday night, hopefully it hits somewhere else! No Midway’s or Highway’s today where we kick the day off with a Group 3 for the 3yo Fillies. No Saturday form, it’s basically midweek & provincial, I’ll lean to (6) CHATTERLEY who we saw in Brisbane during the carnival beating all bar the smart filly Sunrays in a Listed race. She resumed at Newcastle sticking on well (1400m) & stays at the same trip here with a very soft trial in between that & this outing. Suggest she’ll park handy & from there get her chance. (8) MILES OF GLORY wound up well to win at Kembla, will relish the longer trip & maps better than midfield. (3) SNITZEL DANCER next best.

Numbers: 6 – 8 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet: CHATTERLEY EACH-WAY/BOX EXACTA TOP 2 SELECTIONS.

RACE 2

Judging by his finishing effort in the Metrop (6) MORE FELONS is ready to win & this looks very suitable. Off the scene for 17 months he’s now had 3 runs back & the latest was clearly his best clocking some very slick sectionals to finish up right on the heels of the placegetters. A winner up to 3381m overseas the additional 200m today is ideal. Master trainer William Haggis brings (9) SAM HAWKENS to Australia having won his past 3 in the UK (2500-2800). No trials & 77 days between runs, cannot underestimate. (3) ETNA ROSSO didn’t fire in the Metrop, prior form sound, include him & the flying (2) SOUL OF SPAIN.

Numbers: 6 – 9 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: MORE FELONS TO WIN.

RACE 3

Open looking race the ‘Big Dance Wild Card’ with the uncatchable (5) SWIFT FALCON sure to have his admirers & without doubt he can win it however is just becoming too costly for me. (6) VIVY AIR is a little similar, she’s won 2 of 24 with 11 placings along the way. Can see her closer in the run than SWIFT FALCON & although he can run slick sectionals, she’s no slouch either. It’s really that sort of race where a surprise result wouldn’t shock.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 10 – 11

Suggested Bet: VIVY AIR EACH-WAY.

RACE 4

(7) PERFUMIST & (10) IDLE FLYER ran the quinella here 2 weeks ago & according to the early markets can do so again, I’m inclined to agree. I was keen on the latter on that occasion however she gave away too much start & although closing late ground (7) PERFUMIST had kicked clear with too much of a break to be any chance of being run down. (10) IDLE FLYER draws out here, suggest the tactic will be to push on though & not let (7) PERFUMIST get things so much to suit herself. At the odds available I’ll be backing both. Third run back up to the mile (14) DOMINETTA can feature from the pole draw.

Numbers: 7 – 10 – 14 – 2

Suggested Bet: PERFUMIST & IDLE FLYER TO WIN.

RACE 5

The Kosciuszko is always a highlight on Everest Day & that’s going to be the case again with a classy field assembled. Tempo looks strong, hopefully that is the case as I’m going with (11) CLEAR THINKING who will definitely settle no better than midfield although the blinkers do go on for the first time which may sharpen her up early? Very good fresh record she’s got the light weight & can have the last crack. (1) FRONT PAGE holds an amazing record in this race winning two years in succession before beating all bar the winner Far Too Easy last year, first up second in the Galaxy at Rosehill last prep suggests he’s the hardest to beat. Throwing (13) CHIDIAC in exotics at a price.

Numbers: 11 – 1 – 13 – 12

Suggested Bet: Box up top 2 selections in Exacta/Quinella.

RACE 6

Group 3 Sydney Stakes maps to be run at around a genuine tempo, wouldn’t mind a little more speed as I’m keen on the chances of (15) GENEROSITY however am well aware her pattern is to get back & from the wide draw today that’s a given. She comes out of a couple of Everest lead-ups being held-up in the Concorde with something to offer before just over 2 lengths from Joliestar in the Shorts, that’s very strong form. (8) OSTRAKA comes out of the same races & didn’t have a lot of luck the latest when posted wide. (7) WITH YOUR BLESSING likely leads & on current form will take running down.

Numbers: 15 – 8 – 7 – 10

Suggested Bet: GENEROSITY TO WIN ($3.00 or better).

RACE 7

Well, we reach the $20 million dollar Everest, will the Hong Kong Champ (1) KA YING RISING measure up or will he find the local opposition a lot tougher than he’s beaten up back home? Whatever happens, his inclusion in the race has certainly generated plenty of publicity along the way. I’ll probably make no sense here however I am putting him on top after weeks of saying I wouldn’t. The key for me is the map, Overpass leads whilst he & Mazu park behind with all the rest off speed, now should he show the same turn of foot he’s displayed at home then he’ll skip clear, that closing bunch will be charging late, can they make up the ground? So, on top he goes purely on the favourable map & what he’s displayed at home, however when taking short odds you don’t want unknowns & he has a couple (trial was a pass mark nothing more, how has he settled in?). I’m suggesting playing a few who are likely overs due to his price & should he not turn up on the day could prove a good result. (2) BRIASA – sits fourth on my map, perfect trip. (8) ANGEL CAPITAL – terrific 1200m record on DRY ground only. (9) JOLIESTAR – big finishing mare who is still fresh & she races best that way. (12) TEMPTED – no weight, could be the surprise packet. Box those all up with the favourite & enjoy the spectacle.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet: Something small on 2, 8, 9 & 12/Same numbers in exotics plus the 1.

RACE 8

(7) LORD PENMAN has put in three very good runs since crossing the ditch & joining the Chris Waller stable. Strong to the line fresh he was then held-up at a crucial stage second-up before closing off nicely in the Group 1 Epsom which wasn’t run to suit at all. Can’t say I’m wrapped in the drop back to 1300m however when it comes to training winners Chris Waller has a few more under his belt than I do! We all know how good (1) LINEBACKER looked in the Ka Ying Rising trial & that form obviously will go under the microscope in the previous race, dare say should KYR finish out of the money this one’s price will go south. Respect for the lightly raced (9) SABAJ who resumes with a good strike rate & is unbeaten fresh.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 9 – 11

Suggested Bet: LORD PENMAN EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

The 5-million-dollar King Charles will see Pride Of Jenni ripping along out front looking to run her rivals into the ground, I’ve got Mr Brightside & Royal Patronage doing the chasing. Drawn wide & certain to give away a big start I’ll stick with (10) FANGIRL who will appreciate the strong speed up front, she’s just going to need those leaders to feel the pinch late & to be close enough to run them down. (1) MR BRIGHTSIDE is a weight for age star; he’s won at the top level on 10 occasions & ticks a lot of boxes here. (4) LAKE FOREST is the unknown, he won the rich Golden Eagle at his only run in the country, form back home is sound & the stable have a great strike rate here.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 4 – 11

Suggested Bet: FANGIRL TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 10

We get to the last & it’s not an easy task, I’d like to be well in front beforehand! (3) LORD OF BISCAY closed off strongly first up before putting in a shocker second-up however he was found to be lame plus also other vet issues suggesting the run should be completely overlooked. With J. Mac on top & a good draw he can bounce back. (7) KERGUELEN continues to race consistently on any type of ground these days, gate not ideal however sill be storming home. (15) WAIMARIE has some decent form down south & should be kept safe first run for Team Archibald.

Numbers: 3 – 7 – 15 – 14

Suggested Bet: LORD OF BISCAY EACH-WAY.

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