Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Hawkesbury Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

First of 3 consecutive weeks away from the big smoke, Hawkesbury is first on the list & we can expect a soft track, possibly worse? The meeting gets underway with a 1500m Midway where I’ll lean to (4) PRINCE OF SORTS who although drawn out does map to get across ok. He ran a good third this level last start & holds a good record on the track which is key. (3) VINTAGE CHOICE & (11) STARBOARD in the mix..

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 11 – 5

Suggested Bet: PRINCE OF SORTS EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 2

Murwillumbah trainer Matt Dun has an outstanding record in these Highway races & he may send (3) MOSCOW CIRCUS around here who note has also accepted at Eagle Farm. She’s a lightly raced filly building a good record who likes to settle on speed, importantly she’s only raced on wet & synthetic ground to date with all the wet track runs resulting in wins or placings. (8) STRAIGHT FIRE is up to this level & ran well fresh, wet track no issue either. The consistent (1) CANADIAN RULER must be included.

Numbers: 3 – 8 – 1 – 14

Suggested Bet: MOSCOW CIRCUS TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 3

(1) AERODROME does look the horse to beat here having recorded a grinding win on debut at Warwick Farm last month. He & the second placed Hidden Motive paired out a long way from home eventually hitting the line 5L in front of the third placed runner. Hidden Motive placed at Randwick last Saturday suggesting the form line will stack up. (3) FORTISSIMO has shown good consistency to date & has the wet track form. (8) ZEBRA FINCH a likely improver.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

Locally trained (3) IRON MAN appears well placed to win second up. He finished right on the heels of the placegetters first-up & did race quite tight over the final 200m or so. Wet track record is a good one & he is a second up winner. No knock whatsoever on the resuming (1) SPANISH FOX who lines up for his sixth straight victory, trials have been good, may find this a little short however is fresh enough to cope. Another first upper (5) ABLE WILLIE is capable of running a good race fresh.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet: IRON MAN TO WIN.

RACE 5

(5) BLACK RUN is an interesting runner here. She’s a former European mare who was heavily backed at her local debut running on solidly at Warwick Farm over the mile trip. The step up in distance is a strong positive & that level of supports suggests she’s doing something right off the track. (3) PHILLIPSBURG has really found his form up north, this is definitely tougher & he’s back in trip, the plus is his wet track form. (2) JAMBEROO ran well fresh & should at least figure in the placings here.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: BLACK RUN EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

First of the feature races is the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas. (1) PISCES should be ready to show up third run back from a break, too far back first up, again well back second-up running on he draws a lot more favourably this afternoon & importantly handles any type of going. BIG watch on the resuming (2) SNITZANOVA who went from a maiden win to a G2 win within 3 starts at her initial prep. Trialled well enough to be a force in this. (16) ALABAMA FOX was stiff at Randwick, should have finished much closer, no favours with the barrier draw here though.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 16 – 5

Suggested Bet: PISCES EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

The G3 Hawkesbury Crown does appear a very competitive affair on paper. (2) LADY LAGUNA should be hitting her straps third run back from a break, she hasn’t exactly savaged the line both runs this prep however they were in stronger company & note third run back last campaign she placed behind Bella Nipotina & Sunshine In Paris. (1) BELCLARE is the other notable class-dropper & she drops further from a trio of successive G1 starts, she’s a leader drawn wide however on the map should get across ok. (11) WRITTEN IN CODE is racing in peak form & can measure up to the stronger grade.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 11 – 7

Suggested Bet: LADY LAGUNA EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

The G3 Hawkesbury Gold Cup, once again very competitive looking. I’m sticking with last Saturdays dominant Randwick winner (5) PUNCH LANE who ran his rivals into the ground. In my opinion the track that day was worse than the official soft (6) rating & this one is a swimmer which adds merit to my thoughts. He ran super quick time & should this track remain damp he’s the one to beat. Don’t be the least surprised to see (1) MY OBERON improve plenty second-up, he’s got some cracking mile form last prep behind the likes of Fangirl & Ceolwulf. (12) MATCHA LATTE definitely goes in as could many others.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 12 – 3

Suggested Bet: PUNCH LANE TO WIN (if wet).

RACE 9

The Listed Gold Rush sees many of the ‘usual suspects’ in these races going around, very tough looking assignment. (4) BUBBA’S BAY can take a run however her two lead-up trials suggest she’s well forward enough, she holds a good record here on the track & draws to hold an ideal spot up on the speed, market leads? If they’re making ground from the back & we’ll know the answer to that by this race (1) DRAGONSTONE & (10) KIN will get their chance whilst (2) TAMERLANE although this trip is short of his best isn’t without a chance off the rails gate.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 10 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 10

Should (18) WRITTEN IN CODE go around in this race & not the earlier one she looks tough to beat. In peak career form this prep she’s won both starts the latest by a good margin & does appear well placed after the claim. Wide gate for (6) STEP ASIDE who is on the back-up, there’s a couple of negatives now for the positive, he wasn’t entitled to win last week tempo wise however was too strong, must include. (7) GALLANT STAR holds a good overall record, not far away in the feature last start ticks the wet track box.

Numbers: 18 – 6 – 7 – 13

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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