Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Summer Carnival racing continues at Eagle Farm on Saturday with a dry surface assured. The meeting gets underway with a very open looking 3yo affair with runners rising & dropping in grade. I’m going to lean to the Sunshine Coast trained (5) SMEXY who goes to the 1400m for the first time. Finishing 3rd in a four-horse field first up is no great recommendation however she was clearly doing her best work late in a race not run to suit. Her final two runs last prep also suggest she’s going to appreciate the additional 200m. (3) HA’PENNY HATCH is a model of consistency, she mixes her distances between 12 & 1400m well, gets another chance to break through. (1) MIDNIGHT SPIRIT drops plenty in class/rises in weight.

Tips: 5 – 3 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet: SMEXY EACH-WAY.

RACE 2

2200m is the distance of this week’s distance affair with the usual suspects going around, most rising plenty in weight also, who will handle that best? (1) SUN WORSHIPPER, (3) KALUAKOI & (4) NAVAL COMMISION are the main players who jump plenty on their last start efforts however they still do appear the main winning chances. I’ll lean to (4) NAVAL COMMISION who should be right at his peak now fifth run back from a break. (1) SUN WORSHIPPER backs up from a strong win last Saturday at Doomben, the rise to 2200m is a definite positive.

Tips: 4 – 3 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet:  Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

More 2yo’s hopefully Magic Millions bound. Debutantes from very strong stables who have trialled well suggest this race will be guided by the close to race time market fluctuations. The obvious is the race experienced (7) ONE DAY AT A TIME who was well supported in the Maribyrnong Trial at Flemington back in early October, she clocked in third there giving the impression further will suit. She doesn’t get that today however this looks an easier task & the form from that Flemington race has been franked. (8) EVANTA is on debut for the Waller yard, given a soft recent Gold Coast trial as was the top tip, both should be ready. (4) STAR OF JAMIACA led throughout to win his trial, draws well here & may take catching.

Tips: 7 – 8 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet: Market the best guide.

RACE 4

Good competitive looking race this one. I’ll lean to the second-up (7) BARBERRY SPUR however keep in mind he’s had a break of almost 2 months between this & his first-up outing suggesting he’s almost first up once again! He’s promising with a good record to date though & draws ideally to just park behind the speed which does look quite strong on paper. (10) YOYO YEEZY had valid excuses when failing on debut, given a month or so to recover he quickly bounced back with a dominant all the way win at this venue. (2) HEARTS ARE BETTER much more at home in this lower grade, can bounce back hard. (6) MOULIN MISS has first Balance The Books form lines, that’s a big positive.

Tips: 7 – 10 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet:  BARBERRY SPUR EACH-WAY.

RACE 5

The unbeaten (16) BALANCE THE BOOKS gets the nod here. Yes, she takes on stronger opposition today however she can only win & she’s been doing that in very impressive fashion. All three victories have been strong finishing efforts & her latest was in a race not at all run to suit yet there she was rounding up her rivals from clear last. Way down in the weights she draws to park around midfield, look for her to be cutting loose in the straight. (6) SER JOH hit form last start running down the leader with 62kg, that was a terrific performance & here he is fourth up suggesting there’s more improvement likely. The consistent (2) CASPERNOVA must be included once again, claim a big help.

Tips: 16 – 6 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: BALANCE THE BOOKS TO WIN.

RACE 6

Super competitive Bribie for the sprinters, the one given is there’s going to be no shortage of speed with many leaders/on pacers engaged. I’m defaulting to one of my favourite mares in (13) SHALAA’S MOMENT who resumes today for a new yard joining the Peter Robl camp. Liked the recent trial win & she’s very good fresh, market?? (5) METALART will be ridden off speed looking for the gaps off that inside draw once they hit the straight, keeping very safe. Cannot overlook (1) GOLDEN BOOM who is the class runner in the race, freshened up ran well in a couple of early spring features down south when last fresh. Chances certainly don’t end there!

Tips: 13 – 5 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet: Something small each-way SHALAA’S MOMENT if not a drifter.

RACE 7

I’m either loyal or just a complete sucker however here I go again tipping the super-consistent, however not currently winning (11) WARBY on top. Placed his past 3 he’s had valid excuses on each occasion, all things being equal he should have won two back, arguably won three back & last start copped a smack on the nose with a rivals whip right near the line which just has to be a momentum killer. Up in grade, way down in the weights. (3) MISS JOELENE the hardest to beat, two good runs this time in she should be almost peaking here. (10) TORABELLA can improve & likely rolls forward up to this trip, on paper that’s a definite plus as the speed appears below average.

Tips: 11 – 3 – 10 – 6

Suggested Bet: WARBY EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

The all-important Gateway where the winner’s connections land a Golden ticket into next year’s Group 1 Stradbroke so plenty to play for here. Leading trainer Tony Gollan has targeted this race strongly in recent times & he’s sending (1) BOOMTOWN BOSS around this year who will be very well fancied & gets the tick from me. Impressed winning first up before clear too late last time out just missing stablemate Rockribbed in a head bobbing finish which goes his way in another stride. He can make amends today. (11) READY TO SCHIPP backs up from a strong Doomben win last Saturday, harder here, no weight relief however is trending in the right direction with good upside & a favourable draw. (7) EL MORZILLO an improver, she needs to show something today as she’s well up to this on her best form.

Tips: 1 – 11 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet: BOOMTOWN BOSS TO WIN.

RACE 9

(2) MIDNIGHT IN TOYKO beat home (6) LONHRO’S QUEEN in the Tatt’s Classic at Doomben 2 weeks ago. They ran 1st & 2nd with the margin being 1.7L, this time around the latter gets a weight turnaround of 5.5kg for the defeat & with this track likely to be bordering on firm is much better placed. Therefore, I’m confident the tables will be turned & (6) LONHRO’S QUEEN will come out on top. (1) ZASZOU next best however will need a touch of luck from the wide alley.

Tips: 6 – 2 – 1 – 14

Suggested Bet: LONHRO’S QUEEN TO WIN.

RACE 10

Suggesting something on (15) TRAPEDO in this closing race who placed here in stronger company two back before running a lot better than it may appear on paper at the Sunshine Coast last start when racing wide yet still able to find the line well clocking the second-fastest final 200m split in the race. Same weight, same class, same jockey, better gate! (5) FLYING AURELIUS resumes, won 3 of 4 is in a good yard & trialling well, wide gate the concern. Not sure where (14) WAKU WAKU is heading, accepted for races here & down south.

Tips: 15 – 5 – 14 – 10

Suggested Bet: TRAPEDO EACH-WAY.

Market Market



Recent Articles