Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

No less than two Group 1’s to be run at Eagle Farm later in the day. Warning, keep an eye on the weather with rain predicted on race day, knowing when it will fall is crystal ball stuff! TENZING beat home SUNSET SOIREE at Doomben a fortnight back however I’m going with the mare to turn the tables. She gave away a big start on that occasion & raced deep yet closed off very well & gets a handy swing her way in the weights (2.5kg) as they lock horns once again. POISON CHALICE the interesting runner, lightly raced with a good record in Victoria, wide gate no help however too good to overlook.

Numbers: 16 – 7 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet: SUNSET SOIREE EACH-WAY.

RACE 2

Sticking with the Gollan stable once again putting the local WARBY on top. I don’t fancy him on really wet ground suggesting should we stay in the soft range he’s a good chance to be either bursting home out wide or through the pack. The engagement of Blake Shinn to ride is a very positive one. HOLLYWOOD NORTH will appreciate plenty of rain, the wetter the better for him. STAR OF CHAOS could be an improver.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 13 – 3

Suggested Bet: WARBY TO WIN (on nothing worse than soft ground).

RACE 3

Sticking with the last start winner SPIRIT RIDGE who landed a perfect run in transit to win on that occasion getting the head down right where it counted. The horse he beat that day has since gone on to run 2nd in the Doomben Cup & the horse who beat him home first up at Wagga ran 3rd! Gate not kind however he generally rolls forward suggesting he’s a good chance to find a decent spot early. HEZASHOCKA comes out of that Doomben Cup where he wasn’t far away, Gosford Cup winner prior start is a better chance on wet than dry. DUNE FORTY FIVE was a much-improved effort his latest.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 10 – 2

Suggested Bet: SPIRIT RIDGE EACH-WAY.

RACE 4

Really looking forward to this race where the highly rated import ADELAIDE RIVER makes his Australian debut, his form overseas having run 2nd in an Irish Derby & another Group 1 in Paris is likely head & shoulders above anything going around here, how fit & ready to go is he though? Victorian visitor SHOCK ‘EM OVA resumed with a last to first Caulfield win aided by a strong tempo, the 1800m is ideal, he can really finish off. KNIGHT’S CHOICE in the place mix.

Numbers: 3 – 15 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet: ADELAIDE RIVER/SHOCK EM’ OVER TO WIN.

RACE 5

Terrific line up to go around in this years’ Sires Produce which features the Group 1 Champagne Stakes winner BROADSIDING who has been dealt a very unfortunate gate & will give away a big start. I’m with the local filly EL MORZILLO who just keeps on running good races & often without luck, she closed off well over 1200m at Doomben a fortnight back & will lap up 1400m today. BITTERCREEK brought his consistent Melbourne form to Doomben beating her last start, terrific chance once again. Wouldn’t sack ANGEL CAPITAL & can include SMASHING TIME.

Numbers: 16 – 1 – 2 – 12

Suggested Bet: EL MORZILLO EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

The winner of this race scores a ‘Golden Ticket’ into the Stradbroke in a fortnight’s time. I’m hoping that’s the Sydney colt SCHWARZ who was dominant winning the Hawkesbury Guineas a month back. Although yet to race on ‘officially’ wet ground that was rainy, deteriorating surface & he’s since trotted in a trial on a heavy (8). Very hard to beat here. STEFI MAGNETICA the clear danger who ran very well in the 10,000, she is yet to tick the 1400m box however wasn’t far away in the Surround, confident one of the pair will win. Don’t mind CORNICHE up to 1400m.

Numbers: 7 – 17 – 4 – 10

Suggested Bet: SCHWARZ TO WIN.

RACE 7

First of the Group 1’s is the Kingsford-Smith Cup & wow it’s a tough one. The map is the first issue as we only have nos.3 & 4 as on-pacers however I doubt that will end up being the case, others will push on, who they will be is anyone’s guess, maybe Antino off the wide alley? I’m taking the easy way out putting BELLA NIPOTINA on top of I WISH I WIN just as they finished in the 10,000. Both are top class & handle any wet ground. Can never underestimate THINK ABOUT IT, he’s an Everest & Stradbroke winner. Winning chances certainly don’t end there.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

The Group 1 Queensland Derby doesn’t look to hold too many winning chances in my opinion. I’m confident the favourites TANNHAUSER & AUTUMN ANGEL will fight out the finish & backing both looks a very good option. I’ll lean to the filly who has ticked the 2400m box & beaten some of the best in the land & across the ditch at her age & sex. She’ll benefit greatly from the Rough Habit run & maps around midfield which is close enough to strike in the straight. TANNHAUSER showed what he is capable of winning the Rough Habit, that was his first run as a gelding & he just trotted up to them on the turn, 2400m shouldn’t be a concern. Of the others WARIALDA WARRIOR & FIRST INNINGS rate best.

Numbers: 18 – 1 – 12 – 11

Suggested Bet: AUTUMN ANGEL/TANNHAUSER TO WIN.

RACE 9

We wind up the day with a very open fillies & mares feature where the likely track conditions will end up playing a big role in the result. COMRADE ROSA a perfect example, great chance if the track isn’t too wet however if it is then she’s got very little hope of winning. I’m going wide putting ENTERPRISE POMME on top, now in a new yard she settled back last start before really finding the line late, that’s not her usual pattern however it worked ok & she’ll handle any conditions. No knock COEUR VOLANTE who is lightly raced & already a group 2 & 3 winner from 5 starts!

Numbers: 13 – 4 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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