Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Summer Carnival racing once again at Doomben on Saturday with Group 3 & Listed action under fine skies on a good rated surface. We get the meeting underway with an open handicap for the distance horses & I’ll admit I’m not bursting with confidence. (3) GALIFIANAKIS should be ready to peak at his third run back this afternoon, he’s been beaten less than 2 lengths all three starts this prep & rises to a suitable distance. Expecting (2) DIABLO BOLT to improve sharply second run back, he loses 2kg which will help & is twice a second up winner already. (6) SUN WORSHIPPER looks close however the drop back in distance looks negative, I’d rather see her rising in trip.

3 – 2 – 6 – 9

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

I’ll give (9) COSMO CENTAURUS another chance however I just cannot seem to catch him. Liked his first up win when nice & strong to the line at the end of 1000m, second up he went to 1200m however if anything looked to be chasing even further running on at the end of the race. Well, here he is up to 1350m which based on that run should be ideal. (16) ALECTRONA is a model of consistency who again will figure in the finish, sure a win is near coming off no less than 5 consecutive second placed finishes! (15) READY TO SCHIPP will need luck off the wide draw.

9 – 16 – 15 – 14

Suggested Bet:  COSMO CENTAURUS TO WIN ($3 or better).

RACE 3

The Country Stampede Final is expected to be run at a good tempo. (11) INVICTUS LAD looks well placed dropping in weight off recent runs and going in third-up; notably he won at the same stage of his previous campaign. (8) SMILING ZAC has also drawn well, stable are going well and gets Angela Jones to steer. (15) BUNGARRIBEE LAD lands a favourable draw and has previously placed here at Doomben. Place chance.

11 – 8 – 15 – 1

Suggested Bet: Go as wide as you can with exotics.

RACE 4

Keen to back (2) KEITEL who had no luck whatsoever in the recent Mooloolaba Cup on the Sunshine Coast. Although jumping from gate 3 he ended up wide throughout & in the end did a very good job to be beaten less than 3 lengths. This is an easier task & he raced consistently previous to that run winning & placing twice from 4 attempts. I don’t see a strong tempo likely which will suit the mostly front running (4) BLAZEN BOOTS who is in winning form, if left to his own devices could take some running down. (10) NAILS MURPHY is on the quick back up from last week when beating all bar the winner, he looks close should he handle the quick turnaround.

2 – 4 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet:  KEITEL EACH-WAY.

RACE 5

The Country Cups Challenge Final will be a spectacle however a very difficult race to sort. I’m leaning to the pair who ran the placings at Mackay last start: (11) JOURNALISM and (13) ODEGAARD. ODEGAARD had a dream run along the rail and found a clear path at just the right moment whilst JOURNALISM, who sat one off the fence, appeared to be under pressure before the home turn yet kept on coming right to the line, better effort than his main rival in my opinion. (4) FOR VALOUR also in with a chance should luck go his way from a wide barrier.

9 – 2 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: Go as wide as you can with exotics.

RACE 6

The Phelan Ready is an early Magic Millions lead-up & with a number of well trialled debutantes engaged market leads will be all important. The Chris Waller trained (6) SNITSKA faces the starter for the first time having had two lead-up trials. First of those was back in October when leading & winning with plenty in the tank, second was Tuesday of this week when ridden back & finishing nicely without threat. From the good gate I’d expect to see him forward from the get-go. (1) ITCHINTOGO was run down late on debut, all the wiser & in the right yard. Plenty of other chances, hard to rule out any runner to be honest.

6 – 1 – 9 – 10

Suggested Bet: Follow any market support for SNITSKA.

RACE 7

Very keen on the chances of (1) GRAFTERBURNERS to go 2 from 2 this time in. He surprised going forward taking up the lead first up which ended up being the right move on what was a firm surface, from there he was never going to be beaten. Don’t expect a similar scenario today as there’s a lot more speed engaged however he owns a big finish & can get home over the top of them late. The lightly raced (3) NINJA resumes with a good record to date, trialled well, drawn well, gets onto a good track for the first time. (6) LOCKYER may need the run however is one to follow as his prep continues on.

1 – 3 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet: GRAFTERBURNERS TO WIN.

RACE 8

The Group 3 George Moore is todays feature & we see a quality field of sprinters to go around. I’m with the very speedy (10) EPIC PROPORTIONS who has won 2 of his past 3 starts both here at Doomben around this 1200m trip with light weights. Drawn well with Tahlia Fenlon to steer it will be ‘handlebars down’ once again. (2) HIDDEN WEALTH drove home hard to get the money first up on the Sunshine Coast, will Angela Jones make use of drawing inside my top tip & try to keep him out? Perhaps, however not to the point of ruining her own winning chances. No knock on (1) CABALLUS however he can be hard to catch. (5) TAVS takes on stronger opposition & I map him back in the field, he’ll have a lot of ground to make up.

10 – 2 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet: EPIC PROPORTIONS EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

The Listed Mode Stakes is a wide-open affair & I’ve come up with one at value in (8) CHAMPAGNE LANE. Her & another engaged here Shadwell Lass both finished off well first up at the Sunshine Coast over 1000m & will appreciate 1200m, CHAMPAGNE LANE finished slightly closer on the line however in my opinion that margin should have been greater as she endured a chequered run in the latter part of the straight. Respecting the Sydney form of (7) ERNAUX & (10) PYROLYSIS who ran the quinella at Canterbury last start. (4) KICKUPHIGH may find this too short however I’d include in exotics as she looks promising.

8 – 7 – 10 – 4

Suggested Bet: CHAMPAGNE LANE EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 10

I’m with (14) KRUMAC in this closing race on an each-way basis. Solid running on here over this distance two starts back he then dropped back to 1400m at the Sunshine Coast again closing well however found the trip was too short. Definitely suited back up to the mile I’d love to see him closer in the run. (1) JOHN DORY is a lightly raced improver; he’ll race on speed & there doesn’t look to be a great amount of it. (4) NOTTINGTON PRINCE next best.

14 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: KRUMAC EACH-WAY.

BEST BET

RACE 7 # 1 GRAFTERBURNERS

BEST VALUE

RACE 4 # 2 KEITEL

RACE 8 # 10 EPIC PROPORTIONS

RACE 9 # 8 CHAMPAGNE LANE

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