David Shortte’s Attack, Attack, Attack AFL Grand Final Preview

Posted on September 24, 2025September 24, 2025 | Posted by David Shortte

After another magnificent season of AFL action it all comes down to this – a Blockbuster encounter between The Cats and the Lions in the 2025 Grand Final.

It is one of the most popular punting days on the calendar and much the same as doing your form for a horse race I like to do my form for an AFL Grand Final with my own numbers.

I have done all of the homework looking at who have been the key goal scorers and first goal scorers for both teams, a historical look at the last 10 Grand Finals – who has polled the Norm Smith Medal Votes and why, and the recent match ups between these two sides.

I round it out with my Verdict and my personal AFL GF Bets.

It shapes as an epic Grand Final – good luck with your punts!

GOAL SCORING

2025 TOP GOALSCORERS (Grand Finalists)

Jeremy Cameron 88 Goals 41 Points (25 Games)

Logan Morris 52 Goals 19 Points (25 Games)

Shannon Neale 41 Goals 17 Points (22 Games)

Zac Bailey 39 Goals 33 Points (25 Games)

Cam Rayner 35 Goals 31 Points (26 Games)

Tyson Stengle 34 Goals 30 Points (23 Games)

Ollie Dempsey 31 Goals 19 Points (25 Games)

Shaun Mannagh 30 Goals 20 Points (22 Games)

Patrick Dangerfield 30 Goals 22 Points (22 Games)

Charlie Cameron 28 Goals 32 Points (24 Games)

2025 TOP GOAL AVERAGES (2 Goals per Game & Above) (Grand Finalists)

Jeremy Cameron 3.50

Logan Morris 2.10

2025 TOP FIRST GOALSCORER OF THE MATCH (Grand Finalists)

Jeremy Cameron – 5

Levi Ashcroft – 3

Shaun Mannagh – 3

Callum Ah Chee – 2

Charlie Cameron – 2

Shannon Neale – 2

2025 TOP FIRST GOALSCORERS FOR THEIR TEAM

Jeremy Cameron – 8

Logan Morris – 5

Shannon Neale – 4

Charlie Cameron – 4

Levi Ashcroft – 3

Shaun Mannagh – 3

Brad Close – 2

Callum Ah Chee – 2

Jarrod Berry – 2

Hugh McLuggage – 2

Josh Dunkley – 2

BRISBANE

2025

First Goal Scorer Match (13)

Levi Ashcroft – 3

Callum Ah Chee – 2

Charlie Cameron – 2

Lachie Neale – 1

Logan Morris – 1

Cam Rayner – 1

Jarrod Berry – 1

Josh Dunkley – 1

Zac Bailey – 1

First Goal Scorer Brisbane (26)

Logan Morris – 5

Charlie Cameron – 4

Levi Ashcroft – 3

Callum Ah Chee – 2

Jarrod Berry – 2

Hugh McLuggage – 2

Josh Dunkley – 2

Darcy Fort – 1

Oscar McInerney – 1

Lachie Neale – 1

Jaspa Fletcher – 1

Cam Rayner – 1

Zac Bailey – 1

GEELONG

2025

First Goal Scorer Match (16)

Jeremy Cameron – 5

Shaun Mannagh – 3

Shannon Neale – 2

Gryan Miers – 1

Oli Henry – 1

Ollie Dempsey – 1

Jack Bowes – 1

Tom Atkins – 1

Max Holmes – 1

First Goal Scorer Geelong (25)

Jeremy Cameron – 8

Shannon Neale – 4

Shaun Mannagh – 3

Brad Close – 2

Gryan Miers – 1

Tyson Stengle – 1

Oli Henry – 1

Ollie Dempsey – 1

Jack Bowes – 1

Tom Atkins – 1

Max Holmes – 1

Patrick Dangerfield – 1

KEY TAKE AWAYS

• Jeremy Cameron’s First Goal Scorer overall and First Goal Scorer Geelong are the best in the league. He is also clearly the best goal scorer for 2025 (averaging 3.5 goals per game). Put simply if you are a believer in statistics holding true he is your go to man for First Goal Scorer and Most Goals.
• If you are looking for alternatives to JC the other multiple first goal scorers for the season have been Levi Ashcroft and Shaun Mannagh (3 times each) and the trio of Callum Ah Chee, Charlie Cameron and Shannon Neale (2 times each). Logan Morris has kicked the first goal for Brisbane on 5 separate occasions and is also on watch.
• Logan Morris is the only other player averaging more than 2 goals per game over the season and looms as a very important player for the Lions.

2025 ENCOUNTERS

The two sides have met on 3 separate occasions in 2025 with Brisbane beating Geelong twice in the regular season before Geelong turned the tables in the Qualifying Final.

Round 3

GABBA

Brisbane 10.10 (70)

defeated

Geelong 9.7 (61)

Brisbane by 9 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Oli Henry

1^st Brisbane Goal Scorer : Charlie Cameron

Key Disposal Winners

W Ashcroft 33

H McLuggage 30

M Holmes 29

D Zorko 28

J Dunkley 26

B Smith 25

G Miers 22

L Neale 20

Multiple Goal Scorers

P Dangerfield 2

Round 15

GMHBA Stadium

Brisbane 14.8 (92)

defeated

Geelong 6.15 (51)

Brisbane by 41 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Levi Ashcroft

1^st Geelong Goal Scorer : Shannon Neale

Key Disposal Winners

D Zorko 33

J Dunkley 30

B Smith 28

W Ashcroft 28

J Berry 26

M Holmes 23

J Fletcher 23

L Ashcroft 23

T Stewart 22

H McLuggage 22

Multiple Goal Scorers

L Morris 5

J Cameron 4

C Rayner 3

K Lohmann 2

Qualifying Final

MCG

Geelong 16.16 (112)

defeated

Brisbane 11.8 (74)

Geelong by 38 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Charlie Cameron

1^st Geelong Goal Scorer : Jeremy Cameron

Key Disposal Winners

D Zorko 35

L Neale 32

J Dunkley 30

W Ashcroft 30

Z Bailey 27

O Dempsey 25

D Wilmot 24

M Holmes 23

T Stewart 22

B Smith 22

J Fletcher 20

M Blicavs 20

G Miers 19

Multiple Goal Scorers

C Rayner 3

O Dempsey 3

K Lohmann 2

J Cameron 2

GRAND FINAL & NORM SMITH HISTORY OVER THE LAST DECADE

Here is a Recap of the last 10 AFL Grand Finals and what we are looking for when it comes to the numbers that have won the Norm Smith Medal and the Premiership and my Verdict and personal AFL Grand Final Plays.

KEY TAKE AWAYS

• Over the last 10 Grand Finals the average Total Score is 166.2 points per game
• Over the last 10 Grand Finals there is an average of 5.1 multiple goal scorers per game
• Quite logically the Norm Smith Medallists have the recurring themes of either near game high disposals, most goals or near most goals, or a combination of strong disposals and goals scored.
• Of the last 10 Norm Smith Medallists only 1 has won the award without kicking a goal (Jason Johannisen in 2016).
• Of the last 10 Norm Smith Medallists 7 of the 10 winners have kicked 2 goals or more.
• Of the last 10 Norm Smith Medallists 3 of the 10 winners have kicked 4 goals.
• Of the last 10 Norm Smith Medallists 6 of the 10 have been in the top 2 disposal winners on the ground.

2024 Grand Final

Brisbane 18.12 (120)

defeated

Sydney 9.6 (60)

Brisbane by 60 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Will Hayward

1^st Brisbane Goal Scorer : Kai Lohmann

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Will Ashcroft – 14 votes (30 Disposals 1 Goal)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

W Ashcroft 14 votes (30 Disposals 1 Goal)

L Neale 8 votes (35 Disposals)

C Ah Chee 7 votes (14 Disposals 4 Goals)

K Lohmann 1 vote (15 Disposals 4 Goals)

Key Disposal Winners

L Neale 35

W Ashcroft 30

D Zorko 26

E Gulden 24

O Florent 24

B Grundy 22

C Warner 21

H McLuggage 21

R Fox 21

J Dunkley 21

Multiple Goal Scorers

K Lohmann 4

C Ah Chee 4

L Parker 3

L Morris 2

J Daniher 2

W Ashcroft 1

2023 Grand Final

Collingwood 12.18 (90)

defeated

Brisbane 13.8 (86)

Collingwood by 4 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Nick Daicos

1^st Brisbane Goal Scorer : Zac Bailey

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Bobby Hill – 15 votes (18 Disposals 4 Goals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

B Hill – 15 votes (18 Disposals 4 Goals)

K Coleman 5 votes (26 Disposals)

N Daicos 4 votes (29 Disposals 1 Goal)

T Mitchell 3 votes (24 Disposals)

J Crisp 2 votes (25 Disposals 2 Goals)

S Pendlebury 1 vote (24 Disposals 1 Goal)

Key Disposal Winners

N Daicos 29

K Coleman 26

J Crisp 25

S Pendlebury 24

T Mitchell 24

J Howe 24

L Neale 21

H McLuggage 21

J Dunkley 21

S Sidebottom 20

B Hill 18

Multiple Goal Scorers

B Hill 4

J Daniher 3

C Cameron 3

H McLuggage 2

L McCarthy 2

J De Goey 2

J Crisp 2

Z Bailey 2

2022 Grand Final

Geelong 20.13 (133)

defeated

Sydney 8.4 (52)

Geelong by 81 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Tom Hawkins

1^st Sydney Goal Scorer : Will Hayward

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Isaac Smith – 14 votes (32 Disposals 3 Goals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

I Smith – 14 votes (32 Disposals 3 Goals)

P Dangerfield 10 votes (27 Disposals)

T Stengle 4 votes (15 Disposals 4 Goals)

M Blicavs 1 vote (23 Disposals 1 Goal)

S De Koning 1 vote (16 Disposals 1 Goal)

Key Disposal Winners

I Smith 32

C Warner 29

M Duncan 27

P Dangerfield 27

J Selwood 26

R Fox 26

L Parker 23

M Blicavs 23

Z Tuohy 21

T Papley 20

Multiple Goal Scorers

T Stengle 4

I Smith 3

T Hawkins 3

C Warner 2

B Close 2

J Cameron 2

2021 Grand Final

Melbourne 21.14 (140)

defeated

Western Bulldogs 10.6 (66)

Melbourne by 74 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Christian Petracca

1^st WB Goal Scorer : Roarke Smith

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Christian Petracca – 15 votes (39 Disposals 2 Goals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

Christian Petracca – 15 votes (39 Disposals 2 Goals)

B Fritsch 10 votes (13 Disposals 6 Goals)

C Oliver 3 votes (33 Disposals 1 Goal)

M Blicavs 1 vote (23 Disposals 1 Goal)

C Salem 1 vote (27 Disposals 1 Goal)

Key Disposal Winners

C Petracca 29

C Daniel 37

C Oliver 33

A Treloar 27

C Salem 27

B Smith 26

J Macrae 26

J Viney 25

J Dunkley 25

A Brayshaw 25

M Bontempelli 25

Multiple Goal Scorers

B Fritsch 6

A Treloar 3

B Brown 3

M Bontempelli 3

C Petracca 2

T McDonald 2

2020 Grand Final

Richmond 12.9 (81)

defeated

Geelong 7.8 (50)

Richmond by 31 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Dion Prestia

1^st Geel Goal Scorer : Cam Guthrie

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Dustin Martin – 15 votes (21 Disposals 4 Goals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

Dustin Martin – 15 votes (21 Disposals 4 Goals)

J Short 6 votes (25 Disposals)

S Edwards 4 votes (27 Disposals)

M Duncan 3 votes (25 Disposals 1 Goal)

N Broad 2 votes (8 Disposals)

Key Disposal Winners

S Edwards 27

J Short 25

M Duncan 25

J Selwood 21

D Martin 21

T Stewart 20

T Cotchin 19

J Graham 17

S Bolton 16

Multiple Goal Scorers

D Martin 4

J Riewoldt 2

D Prestia 2

S Menegola 2

2019 Grand Final

Richmond 17.12 (114)

defeated

GWS 3.7 (25)

Richmond by 89 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Jeremy Cameron

1^st Rich Goal Scorer : Dustin Martin

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Dustin Martin – 15 votes (22 Disposals 4 Goals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

Dustin Martin – 15 votes (22 Disposals 4 Goals)

B Houli 6 votes (26 Disposals)

M Pickett 4 votes (22 Disposals 1 Goal)

J Riewoldt 3 votes (13 Disposals 5 Goals)

D Prestia 2 votes (22 Disposals)

Key Disposal Winners

T Taranto 30

H Shaw 29

B Houli 26

N Haynes 24

T Greene 23

N Vlaustin 22

D Prestia 22

M Pickett 22

D Martin 22

Z Williams 21

H Perryman 21

S Edwards 21

Multiple Goal Scorers

J Riewoldt 5

D Martin 4

T Lynch 2

2018 Grand Final

West Coast 11.13 (79)

defeated

Collingwood 11.8 (74)

West Coast by 5 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Travis Varcoe

1^st WC Goal Scorer : Willie Rioli

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Luke Shuey – 11 votes (34 Disposals 1 Goal)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

Luke Shuey – 11 votes (34 Disposals 1 Goal)

T Adams 7 votes (31 Disposals 1 Goal)

D Sheed 4 votes (32 Disposals 1 Goal)

J McGovern 1 vote (14 Disposals)

T Langdon 1 vote (23 Disposals)

Key Disposal Winners

L Shuey 34

D Sheed 32

T Adams 31

A Treloar 26

J Crisp 25

T Langdon 23

B Sier 21

J Redden 21

T Phillips 21

S Hurn 21

S Pendlebury 20

Multiple Goal Scorers

J Kennedy 3

J De Goey 3

J Stephenson 2

M Cox 2

2017 Grand Final

Richmond 16.12 (108)

defeated

Adelaide 8.12 (60)

Richmond by 48 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Rory Sloane

1^st Rich Goal Scorer : Josh Caddy

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Dustin Martin – 13 votes (29 Disposals 2 Goals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

Dustin Martin – 13 votes (29 Disposals 2 Goals)

B Houli 10 votes (25 Disposals 1 Goal)

A Rance 2 votes (11 Disposals)

S Edwards 2 votes (25 Disposals)

D Prestia 2 votes (27 Disposals 1 Goal)

J Graham 1 vote (16 Disposals 3 Goals)

Key Disposal Winners

M Crouch 37

D Martin 29

B Crouch 29

D Prestia 27

R Laird 27

B Houli 25

S Edwards 25

K Lambert 22

R Sloane 21

T Cotchin 21

Multiple Goal Scorers

J Graham 3

T Walker 2

J Townsend 2

R Sloane 2

J Riewoldt 2

D Martin 2

2016 Grand Final

Western Bulldogs 13.11 (89)

defeated

Sydney 10.7 (67)

Western Bulldogs by 22 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Luke Parker

1^st WB Goal Scorer : Zaine Cordy

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Jason Johannisen – 10 votes (33 Disposals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

J Johannisen – 10 votes (33 Disposals)

J Kennedy 8 votes (34 Disposals 3 Goals)

T Boyd 7 votes (14 Disposals 3 Goals)

L Picken 5 votes (25 Disposals 3 Goals)

Key Disposal Winners

J Kennedy 34

J Macrae 33

J Johannisen 33

M Boyd 27

T Mitchell 26

L Picken 25

D Rampe 24

L Dalhaus 23

T Liberatore 22

K Jack 22

I Heeney 22

D Hanneberry 22

M Bontempelli 22

Multiple Goal Scorers

L Picken 3

J Kennedy 3

T Dickson 3

T Boyd 3

T Mitchell 2

2015 Grand Final

Hawthorn 16.11 (107)

defeated

West Coast 8.13 (61)

Hawthorn by 46 points

1^st Goal Scorer : Luke Shuey

1^st Hawthorn Goal Scorer : Cyril Rioli

Norm Smith Medal Winner : Cyril Rioli – 13 votes (18 Disposals 2 Goals)

Norm Smith Medal Votes

C Rioli – 13 votes (18 Disposals 2 Goals)

S Mitchell 9 votes (34 Disposals)

J Frawley 4 votes (22 Disposals)

I Smith 1 vote (23 Disposals 3 Goals)

S Burgoyne 1 vote (26 Disposals)

Key Disposal Winners

S Mitchell 34

A Gaff 34

L Hodge 30

J Gibson 29

L Shuey 26

J Roughead 26

J Lewis 26

T Duryea 26

S Burgoyne 26

M Priddis 25

S Butler 25

Multiple Goal Scorers

J Gunston 4

I Smith 3

C Rioli 2

J McGovern 2

VERDICT

Two high quality sides that have both had excellent seasons play off for Premiership honours.  I respect both teams enormously but after watching the Qualifying Final I was super impressed by the way Geelong were able to overwhelm Brisbane with their pressure and their ability to finish their quarters with gusto. Geelong have the luxury of three separate players that can lock down hard on their opponents with tags or strong run with roles and that may well prove a key asset. Gun Cat Patrick Dangerfield was at his brilliant best in Geelong’s Preliminary Final win over the Hawks with 31 disposals and 3 goals – if he reproduces that in the Grand Final he will take a power of stopping for the Norm Smith Medal.

Prediction : Geelong by 27 points

Norm Smith Medal : Patrick Dangerfield $8.50 (smaller plays on Max Holmes ($7.50) & Shaun Mannagh ($31))

First Goal Scorer : Jeremy Cameron $7.50

Same Game Multi : Geelong to win in to Jeremy Cameron to score 2 or more goals in to Max Holmes and Gryan Miers to have 20 or more disposals. Paying $4.10.

All care and due diligence has been taken in preparing the data and statistics in this article. TABtouch will not be held accountable for any errors within.