Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

Racing at Eagle Farm on Saturday, weather fine/track good. First 2yo race of the season gets the meeting underway. Obviously not a lot of confidence here where I’ve put the Kelly Schweida trained (2) VENUS INVICTA on top however I’m not diving in at the even money quote. Trial win was sound albeit in slow time, on the positive side did appear to have more in the tank. (1) HIGHWIRE QUEEN has been well supported which is a very good sign from this stable, won a heavy track Sunshine Coast trial. Big gap in the market to the rest & I’m inclined to agree.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 3 – 9

Suggested Bet: Monitor betting leads closer to race time.

Race 2

Sticking with the in form (1) METAPHORICALLY however I’m not wrapped in the 3.5kg weight rise. Dominant at Ipswich he proved too strong late at the Gold Coast & does come into this race over the same 1400m trip with a 3-week freshen up under his belt which won’t harm. He’s the in-form horse in the race & until he shows otherwise I’ll stick big weight or not! (6) SUPERALLOY was a much better run last start, pretty obvious I suppose as he won! In all fairness he hadn’t been far away his prior two starts also. (5) BAT OUT OF HELL, (4) CHIEF IN CHARGE & (8) KINGDOM UNDERSEIGE chances.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 3

Going a little wide here putting the Gollan stable runner (14) EXUBERANCE on top. Although out of the placings 3 of her 4 starts since coming up from Victoria all bar one of those runs have been sound & she looks suited here by the drop in weight & good gate. Stablemate (4) DARK ARTS is on the back up & is likely better suited here than last week with more tempo in the race. (5) DR FARTHING generally runs his best races fresh however is third up today having finished close up both runs this time in, well drawn & Ben Thompson a positive lead. (10) VANESSI in the mix at good odds.

Numbers: 14 – 4 – 5 – 10

Suggested Bet: EXUBERANCE EACH-WAY (small bet).

Race 4 (Best Bet)

Lack of tempo on paper in this race has to be a concern for the likely favourite (1) ASHKIRK who is in cracking form having won all 3 starts this prep, 3 of 4 overall. His pattern is to get back & should the leaders slacken off he might be in trouble. I’m with (6) GRAFFITUDE who had one run down south when stiff being held up before coming north to join the Gollan yard, heavily backed at his local debut he won well & from the good draw he’s going to park a lot closer to the lead than (1) ASHKIRK. (11) I’M NOT HERE settles on speed; effort was good at the Gold Coast.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 11 – 2

Suggested Bet: GRAFFITUDE TO WIN.

Race 5 (Best Bet)

Keen on the chances of (8) SAMARELLE who comes up from Sydney to tackle just an average local bunch. She resumed with a tidy effort at Warwick Farm running on well after giving away too much start before winning at the same track second-up, note the horse she beat there won dominantly on Monday. The consistent (3) BARBRAY looks the danger should there be one off the good gate, I’d be surprised if one of the pair did not win the race.

Numbers: 8 – 3 – 4 – 11

Suggested Bet: SAMARELLE TO WIN.

Race 6

Thought the resuming (13) IMPERVIOUS looked well placed here. The key to getting the best out of her definitely appears to be dry ground, she had 3 starts last campaign when never in the hunt & note all were on rain affected going. She’s trialled well & should be ready to go over the short 1000m dash. Stablemate (3) KING OF POP is a newcomer to Queensland who has trialled nicely also, out of form for some time however we know the stable have a habit or turning these castoffs around. (8) GET READY LASS was a tough win last start sitting deep, drawn out may have to do the same once again.

Numbers: 13 – 3 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet: IMPERVIOUS EACH-WAY.

Race 7 (Best Value)

Looking forward to this race where I’m keen to back a couple of runners. Firstly (12) PIERANTES on an each-way basis, so impressive winning her maiden on debut showing a decent turn of foot to run past & clear of her rivals. Yes, this is harder however she may well be up to the task. (1) LUCKY PAT has the right form lines & that’s a given, 4 starts for 2 wins with to the others being placings behind the very smart The Next Episode. (3) BOOMELLI is unbeaten fresh & resumes with a recent trial placing.

Numbers: 12 – 1 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet: PIERANTES EACH-WAY/LUCKY PAT WIN.

Race 8 (Best Value)

Thought (3) NAVAL SEAL looked a decent each-way bet coming off a last start narrow second behind the flying Precise Star who made it 5 straight wins on that occasion. Back 100m however freshened up 3-weeks between runs he’ll carry no more weight & draws favourably. (1) GOLDEN CROSS is back to something more suitable after tackling Group company last start, expect to improve. (9) SIR WINNIE was good first up, rises 300m, gut feel is he may need the run however the market is generally a better guide than my stomach!

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 9 – 4

Suggested Bet: NAVAL SEAL EACH-WAY.

Race 9

The 2400m Listed Queensland Cup is the days feature over the 2400m. I’m likely the only person tipping the roughie (7) SUPER FAIR however I’ll stick to my guns & have something small on an each-way basis. Every run she has she steps up in distance & finds the line strongly, yes she’s up plenty in class today however she’s going to be strong at the end whereas a few of her rivals may be looking for an Uber. (6) CHILLAXING & (10) DIAMOND SHOW are both racing in good form & won’t have any problem with the mile & a half whilst (3) AMPLIFY brings strong Sydney form, does rise plenty in weight though.

Numbers: 7 – 6 – 10 – 3

Suggested Bet: SUPER FAIR EACH-WAY.

Race 10

Final race of the day I’m going with the consistent (2) FUKUBANA who was a strong finish winner here two back before just leaving his finish too late at Lismore last time out. This track is more suited to his pattern & from the good draw doesn’t need to give away such a start. (1) ESJAY missed out in the Weetwood however the run was a good one from an impossible position making late ground. (9) FABULANTES has the form to win the race & had this been across the road at Doomben I’d be with him however his record here on his home track is the concern.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 9 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.




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