Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

We race at Doomben in Brisbane on Saturday, with 0-7mm rainfall forecast, we’ll be either on a good surface or very close to it. Tricky race to open the day, I’ll lean to the consistent (11) SLIPSAIN however I’m very aware he’s only won the single race from 14 attempts, he’s run 8 placings though & with a positive ride here can be close enough to strike. (18) PEPE an improver second up & with the rise in distance, I’ll include (12) FLAXLANDS however I’m very wary of her ability to handle the step up in distance, she doesn’t appear to be chasing it however am I seriously going to take on Chris Waller?

Number: 11 – 18 – 12 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

Very keen on the chances of (3) LIVALITTLE who has been crying out for the step up in distance. All 4 runs this prep have been very good, the last 3 have been over this the mile trip hitting the line strongly on each occasion, he’s going to relish 2020m. (9) DIAMOND SHOW is in cracking form, won or runner-up her past 5 starts, last couple both wins here over this trip & further, note it’s unlikely Courtney Bellamy takes any of her 3kg claim. Don’t overlook the very consistent (1) CAVALRY MAN, drop back in trip ideal.

Numbers: 3 – 9 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet:  LIVALITTLE TO WIN.

RACE 3

I’m with (10) MOONSHINE RUN on an each-way basis here. Very consistent of late he’s back to the suitable mile trip here having dropped back 1800 – 1400m last start running on late from last when totally unfancied. Bella Youngberry will steer & with her 3kg claim he’ll carry only 54kg. (11) BARBRAY beat home the top tip 2 starts back, worse at the weights however racing very well & looms as the logical danger. (2) LAST COMMAND a likely improver with tempo to suit (will go back) whilst (13) ARATIRI looms as the only leader & has no weight, may take some catching.

Numbers: 10 – 11 – 2 – 13

Suggested Bet: MOONSHINE RUN EACH-WAY.

RACE 4

Leaning to (5) CUNAMULLA FELLA however I couldn’t take the early market price. Good against the tempo two back he was never on the track his latest, drawn the pole dropping in weight today he looks well enough placed. (1) EXPRESS PAYMENT beat the top tip at his last start when dictating in a mad sprint home, meets him 2kg worse for the 0.4 length margin, still a danger. (7) NAILS MURPHY & (2) YET HE MOVES both going well enough to be rated as chances.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet:  Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

Going with (3) FACUNDO who should gain a nice smother from the favourable draw & that’s the way he races best. Claim for Emily Pozman who has hit the ground running in Queensland a big help. The obvious danger is the flying Tony Gollan trained (5) GRAM who is lining up for his sixth consecutive win, claim helps, no knock, just prefer the better price about (3) FACUNDO. At odds (14) PROVANCE is worth including, loomed & peaked last start, doesn’t look far away & I wouldn’t be the least surprise to see him run into a top 4 slot.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 14 – 1

Suggested Bet: FACUNDO TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 6

Suggest there’s three winning chances here being (2) CINDERSEA, (3) DOMINANT DARCY & (11) SPEITHTACULAR. So which one gets the nod? CINDERSEA is the best of the trio odds-wise, I’ll lean her way as she races well on the fresh side, gets Bella Youngberry & her 3kg claim plus she’s trialled well. (11) SPEITHTACULAR has been very well supported in early markets, fitter for the strong first up placing & will likely lead these, big threat. (3) DOMINANT DARCY has also shown up at the trials & has a turn of foot.

Numbers: 2 – 11 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 3 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

Emergency (18) HEADHUNTER gains a start in the race & he’s the way I’m leaning. All 3 runs back from a break have been solid efforts placing the first couple before out of the money his latest however that was excusable. Back down in the weights he draws ok & his record this track & trip suggests he’ll be right in the finish. (15) LISTEN JANI gets the right run on speed & 3kg off for the flying Bella Youngberry, (6) MELDUBIOUS has done me no favours however is consistent & will be thereabouts once again.

Numbers: 18 – 15 – 6 – 11

Suggested Bet: HEADHUNTER EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

(8) ZOUPER FUND looks well placed to break through here. He’s no star however just looks to have found the right race, game on speed at Eagle Farm he drops in weight, draws well & the combination of Ciaron Maher & Jai Williams has been a successful one with a very good strike rate. Freshened up with no weight (12) TORNADO EXPRESS can run well, from the ideal draw I’d suggest he’ll find himself in a winnable spot. (7) BLAZING HARRY is racing well, just needs to handle the rise in class & wide gate.

Numbers: 8 – 12 – 7 – 10

Suggested Bet: ZOUPER FUND TO WIN.

RACE 9

Very competitive looking 3yo race where I’ll lean to the second starter (13) HUGGIE who hit the front & looked likely to win on debut before being run over late by the very consistent Maria Clara. Fitter, wiser & with no more weight she looks a good chance to go one better. (8) VINCELY was ‘off the map’ when winning first up at the Gold Coast, straight to the front he just kept on going to space his rivals. Obviously harder here however just can’t knock a win of that nature. (3) UNLOADING a big watch fresh, failed when we last saw him however that was in a hot race won by St Gotthard who is very highly rated. Trialling well I wouldn’t be the least surprised to see him win fresh.

Numbers: 13 – 8 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 10

Many chances in this final race where I’ll lean to (2) EPIC PROPORTIONS who can be a little hard to follow however looks suited around here over this trip. Drawn well with the claim for Bella Youngberry he’s got plenty of speed & can use it around here. (6) POLYGLOT clocked in third at Eagle Farm over the 1000m, better placed over this 1100m trip of which he is a specialist, he certainly rates a winning chance. (4) FLEETWOOD looks ready now, should be peaking third run back whilst the Rocky trained (3) CHERRY ROSE resumes & note has only been defeated once from 5 previous first-up attempts.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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