Sports

David Shortte’s AFL Preview: Round 24

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

St Kilda v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium, 5.30pm

Despite missing their Ace in the deck Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Saint Kilda were still far too strong for Richmond last week winning by 49 points. Other results meant their hopes of sneaking in to the Wild Card spot were dashed and they will likely finish in 11th spot

The Sun’s horror second half of the season continued last week with a 42 point loss to Brisbane in the Q Clash. They have gone from winning their first ever final last season to the reality that they will be finishing 13th or 14th this season.

This is the 300th game for veteran Brad Hill who has carved out a quality career and his last two months have been elite managing 30 or more disposals in 6 of his last 8, 35 or more in 4 of his last 8 and last week he had 41 disposals.

Liam Ryan and Dougal Howard come in for the Saints at the expense of Jack Higgins and Alix Tauru while for the Suns Christian Petracca, Sam Collins and Will Powell come out for Nick Holman, Jarrod Witts and Ben Jepson.

The Saints have home ground advantage and have won 5 of their last 9 matches while the Suns have won just 1 of their last 11. I think the Saints can finish their season on a winning note.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 17 points.

Same Game Multi:  Saint Kilda to win, Liam Stocker and Darcy Wilson to both get 15 or more disposals, Max Hall and Bodhi Uwland to both get 20 or more disposals and Matt Rowell to get 25 or more disposals @ $3.55*

FRIDAY

Collingwood v Brisbane, MCG, 5.40pm

For the second time this season Collingwood played out a draw against Hawthorn last week with the two sides locked together on 92 points. It was a very positive result for a team who have finished the season off well with 7 wins, 1 loss and a draw from their last 9 matches. The Pies will be playing in Wild Card weekend regardless of the results of this final round and will finish in 8th or 9th position. There is a prospect of the Pies looking towards Wild Card Weekend here so keep a very close eye on the ins and outs.

Their opponents Brisbane loom large with the finals on our doorstep. Chasing their third straight Premiership, the Lions have warmed in to their work as the season has progressed with wins at 9 of their last 10 matches including victories over fellow finals contenders Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn. They sit in third spot on the ladder on the same number of premiership points as Hawthorn and Melbourne.

A victory will lock up 3rd or 4th spot for Brisbane and given the happenings of this week with Sydney, third spot is going to be a popular finishing position so I expect the Lions to look to win and win well.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 33 points.

Same Game Multi:  Brisbane to win, Jaspa Fletcher and Darcy Wilmot to both get 15 or more disposals and Logan Morris and Kai Lohmann to both kick 2 or more goals @ $2.90*

SATURDAY

Carlton v Fremantle, Marvel Stadium, 11.15am

Carlton announced the appointment of Josh Fraser as their Head Coach for the next 3 years and on pure performance since he has taken over who could argue? When he took on the job the Blues were 1 win, 8 losses and an absolute rabble. Enter Fraser and in their next 13 matches they have managed 10 wins, a draw and 2 losses to force their way in to a Wild Card spot. It has been a remarkable transformation.

Fremantle were back in the Winner’s List last week proving too strong for Adelaide when recording a 24 point victory. They are locked in at the top of the table regardless of the result here so it is another match where it will pay to keep a very close watch on the ins and outs.

Fremantle will need to keep a close watch on Sam Walsh. The Blues Midfielder has had an excellent season managing 25 or more disposals in 18 of his 22 matches and 30 or more disposals in 10 of his 22 games. He has excelled against Fremantle in recent seasons with disposal counts of 36, 40, 32 and 32 at his last 4 matches against the Dockers.

Another player to keep on side when playing same game multis is Isiah Dudley. Has been a quiet achiever for Freo this season kicking 1 or more goals in 18 of his 22 matches and his last 9 straight interstate games.  Two weeks ago he kicked 2 Goals against Melbourne and then last week he slotted 3 majors against Adelaide.

I am always a little weary of games like this where you could forgive either side for going in to self-preservation mode and glancing towards the finals.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 11 points

Same Game Multi : Jordan Clark and Luke Jackson to both get 15 or more disposals, George Hewett and Jagga Smith to both get 20 or more disposals, Sam Walsh to get 25 or more disposals and Isiah Dudley to kick 1 or more goals @ $3.10*

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, MCG, 2.15pm

Melbourne have had an excellent season and they have won 6 of their last 7 including wins against Fremantle and Hawthorn. They sit in 5th spot and they will be looking to zoom in to the top four if either Brisbane or Hawthorn slip up in the final round.

The Western Bulldogs drew with Carlton last week and will finish in the Wild Card slot anywhere between 8th and 10th depending upon results.

Melbourne come in to this game with a stronger recent form reference and I am happy to tip them on top.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 11 points.

Same Game Multi: Melbourne to win, Max Gawn, Kysaiah Pickett and Jake Bowey to all get 20 or more disposals and Ed Richards to get 25 or more disposals @ $3.30.*

Geelong v Richmond, GMHBA Stadium, 5.45pm

Geelong head in to this match on a 5 game winning streak and last week they overcame a slow start against the Kangaroos to eventually record a 15 point win. They sit in 6th spot and will be hoping for last round slip-ups from either Brisbane, Hawthorn or Melbourne to improve their position.

Richmond sit 17th on the ladder with just 3 wins for the season and this looks a really tough way to finish their 2026 campaign

The Cats tend to have their way with opponents like this on their home deck. Geelong by lots,

VERDICT: Geelong by 65 points.

Same Game Multi: Geelong to win by 60 points or more, Bailey Smith to get 30 or more disposals and Ollie Dempsey to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.70*

Adelaide v GWS, Adelaide Oval, 6.10pm

The Crows were in the contest for most of the match last week against the league leaders Fremantle, eventually going down by 24 points. They sit in 7th spot and cannot drop any lower but they need a blunder from either Geelong, Melbourne, Brisbane or Hawthorn to get up out of the Wild Card position.

The Giants have had a very frustrating season with injuries to a number of their top liners. It has resulted in some impressive upset victories and some shocking losses to bottom tier opponents. They will likely finish in 12th spot.

I am always weary of any fixture the Giants are in given their history this season but the Crows at home really should be winning,

VERDICT: Adelaide by 23 points.

Same Game Multi: Adelaide to win, Izak Rankine to get 30 or more disposals and Darcy Fogarty to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.55*

SUNDAY

Essendon v Port Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 10.20am

Essendon sit on the bottom of the AFL ladder with just 2 wins for the season and only 1 win from their last 17 games.

Port Adelaide have tried hard all season despite injuries to key players and many of their losses have been by narrow margins. That said they would be disappointed to be finishing in 15th position.

In complete honesty this game has zero punting appeal. A dead rubber between two of the lesser lights of season 2026. Port for the sake of a tip.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 11 points.

Same Game Multi: Ollie Wines, Joe Richards and Darcy Byrne-Jones to all get 20 or more disposals and Mitch Georgiades and Nate Caddy to both kick 2 or more goals @ $2.95*

Sydney v North Melbourne, SCG, 1.20pm

Sydney defeated Essendon by 36 points last weekend and they have locked up second spot on the table but how do they possibly put the happenings of last Monday morning to one side and focus on football again? Given the unique circumstances it is very hard to make too many predictions other than to say it would be no surprise to see the players perform well below their best. The club imposed bans on Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Riley Bice, Nick Blakey and James Jordon will leave the Swans badly exposed at a time of the season where you need your best players out on the park.

North Melbourne can’t make finals and they will be minus their ball magnet Harry Sheezel but the door is wide open for them to have an impact in this contest.

In fairness I think it is a complete guess here to know what effect all of this is going to have on the players come game day.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 3 points

Same Game Multi: Jy Simpkin to have 20 or more disposals, Luke Parker to have 25 or more disposals, Errol Gulden to have 30 or more disposals, and Paul Curtis to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.15*

West Coast v Hawthorn, Optus Stadium, 5.20pm

West Coast have definitely shown signs of improvement throughout the course of the season and got themselves to 4 wins and 16th spot but they are certainly looking for the finish line now having lost their last 10 matches in a row.

They take on a Hawthorn outfit who will know exactly what they will need to do to try and boost themselves in to third spot on the table.

The Hawks look likely to win this well.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 37 points.

Same Game Multi: Tom McCarthy and Jarman Impey to both get 20 or more disposals, Harley Reid and Jai Newcombe to both get 25 or more disposals and Nick Watson to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.30*

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