Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Saturday racing at Rosehill will be held on very heavy ground following a wet week, rating was a heavy (10) on Thursday morning, the only real light is that race day itself will be sunny. The day gets underway with a good looking 2yo affair however guessing a few may stay home. (1) TRON BOLT was very impressive winning on the Kenso track however I’m not wrapped in him coming back 100m in trip, he’s also yet to see any type of wet ground so a couple of concerns there. (3) CORMIER won well on debut sitting deep, looks a big strong type who can go on with it, I’ll lean his way. (13) PARISEST MAGIC was an interesting debut, sent out at $71 he was tailed off early before making good late ground to be beaten just over 2L, the additional 100m today suits based on that.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 13 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

1500m Highway with a capacity line up (at this stage). (15) BRUTAL BELLE will get back from the wide draw which suggests she’s not a big bet here however she does get through the wet ground well & she was very strong to the line winning at Scone. (1) AUTUMN KING will go around favourite or very close to it, tough effort to win at this level last start & drops a couple of kilos, only heavy track run had excuses (two back) & unbeaten on soft ground (soft 6). Big respect for (7) MOON SWEEPER from the Matt Dunn yard, record suggests he’d prefer it drier however far from out of it.

Numbers: 15 – 1 – 7 – 12

Suggested Bet: BRUTAL BELLE EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 3

(11) GORGEOUS does look extremely well placed coming back to Midway grade here. She’s only had the 3 career starts winning on debut (soft 5) before a couple of unlucky placings. First of those at Hawkesbury when not jumping well, second up she went around at Listed level during the Scone carnival & was beaten less than 2 lengths recording the third quickest final 200m yet she was never in the clear at any stage down the straight. Just needs to handle the ground, that’s the unknown. (1) COLD BREW has come up good odds in early markets for a horse who ticks the first up & wet track box, 3 lead-up trials should have him ready to go fresh. (2) ICE KOOL failed in a stronger race before spelling, that was his first defeat, market?

Numbers: 11 – 1 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet: GORGEOUS TO WIN.

RACE 4

Hard not to be impressed by the win of the imported mare (15) NASEBAH at her Australian debut on the Kensington track. She shot up along the inside once in the straight zooming away to score by almost 4 lengths with more to offer on the line. The ground is the query, she’s yet to race on anything bar synthetic or a good (4). (1) SIR DINADAN was a scratching last week (??), comes into this race now 3 weeks between starts, good two back, back in distance the latest running on well again, big market watch, will he need the run? (14) SHANGRI LA IMPACT the ‘swimmer’, (6) NOBLER flying & should lap up the rise in trip.

Numbers: 15 – 1 – 14 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

Decent ‘throw at the stumps’ here with (17) COSTABIT who caught my eye in a recent barrier trial. He then went around at Kembla in an easier race than this & although beaten was very unlucky being held up for clear running in the straight. Note his only win (or placing) in 6 starts was on a heavy (8) romping in by almost 5 lengths. Without doubt (15) ERTIJAAJ the toughest to beat should she handle the heavy ground; she looked very good to the eye at her Australian debut showing a sharp turn of foot before going to the line with plenty in reserve. (12) BELLA CORAZON hit the line well at Scone, wet track no concern for her.

Numbers: 17 – 15 – 12 – 7

Suggested Bet: COSTABIT EACH-WAY (small bet)/Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

The consistent (4) MAWJOOD doesn’t win out of turn however may have found the right race this afternoon. He’s on the 7-day back up having clocked in third at Randwick last Saturday on very wet (heavy 10) ground. His record on that surface is a good one & it’s highly likely what he’s going to get here. (3) FIDDLERS GREEN has the ability & consistency, just a concern is his record on this track (zero from 3). (2) MAN OF WORTH was out of luck at Scone racing wide from an awkward draw, can improve sharply as he’d previously put together a hat trick of wins.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

I’ve tipped (22) GORGEOUS to win earlier in the day (R3) however should she end up going around here as 6th emergency she’s the definite on top selection. Chances are she won’t & if that’s the case I’ll lean to the resuming (12) BIG PAPA who really caught my eye two starts back running on at Randwick. He was then sent north & didn’t fire a shot, he may have been looking for the paddock though & that’s exactly where he went. Two lead in trials bolting in the latest he looks set to go, very wet ground the major query. (20) ICE KOOL has also accepted in that earlier race (R3), he’d also be a chance here if runs.

Numbers: 12 – 22 – 20 – 6

Suggested Bet: BIG PAPA EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

I’m with the good wet track mare (6) SUPER NUI who wasn’t far away first up when racing on speed in a recent Kensington midweeker. She’s a second up winner, a two-time heavy track winner & she drops in weight for this tougher assignment. (2) CREPE MYRTLE hasn’t shown the same dash as last prep at her two starts this time in, should be right at her peak now & perhaps she’s looking for the rise in trip? No wet track form however can’t be sacked on that as she’s yet to see one. Down in grade (4) LA BASILIQUE in the mix should she start (wide gate).

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 4 – 11

Suggested Bet: GOD’S WINDOW EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 9

The Listed Lord Mayors Cup over 2000m sees many dual acceptors, some of these may pass here & head north to Eagle Farm. In no particular order I’m keen on the following: (10) BELVEDERE BOYS was a cracking run behind Middle Earth at Group 3 level at Doomben, held up he could have made it interesting if clear earlier & looks ready to win. (1) TAVI TIME was luckless at Scone when held up the entire straight, should be primed fourth up & with better luck (accepted Eagle Farm). (4) ZAMBARDO was an eye-catcher running on at Gosford, 3 weeks between runs however will appreciate the additional distance.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 4 – 9

Suggested Bet: Any of the above trio should they turn up.

RACE 10

Suggest (9) HAY STREET gets his chance to get back onto the winners list in this final race. Super consistent all campaign which is only his third there’s plenty of upside with him & he handles all types of ground which is important today. With Braith Knock’s claim he gets in ok at the weights as well. (13) APPLAUD resumes having won 2 from 4 fresh, his wet track form is very impressive, he’s a swimmer & clearly the best ‘wettie’ going around in this race, market? Freshened up (2) MIDNIGHT OPAL drops in grade & is aided by the claim, 3 from 9 on soft/heavy.

Numbers: 9 – 13 – 2 – 12

Suggested Bet: HAY STREET TO WIN/Saver APPLAUD if not a drifter.

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