Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

The Sydney autumn carnival rolls on as we hit Rosehill for the next 3 weeks with the Golden Slipper only a week away. Track should be rated good come Saturday or if not then very close to it. The day kicks off with a 1200m Midway where I’m going wider than most putting (6) EVERYONE’S A STAR on top. She’s a consistent mare who is never far away, concern today is clearly the wide gate, she’s going to need luck however should she find a back to follow or slot in she’s a chance at odds. (13) AUDREY’S LANE has trialled well for her return, monitor market moves whilst (14) JAMBALAYA maps on pace for J. Mac, should gain every possible just doesn’t win out of turn.

Numbers: 6 – 13 – 14 – 12

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

(3) UNLEESHING took on Group 3 company at Randwick last Saturday which was her first outing for a month. She will benefit greatly from the run & note she was racing in terrific form prior with a Saturday win at this BM78 level. The trip is new to her however I’d suggest she can see it out & doesn’t have to deal with the likes of Pinito this week. There are a few in the race who should be ready to improve with a couple of runs under their belts & appreciating the rise in trip being (7) SAINT EMILION, (4) TAZIMA & (8) O’SHEAMUS however nose he’s only had the one run this time in.

Numbers: 3 – 7 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

First of the final two Golden Slipper lead-ups today is the Magic Night for the fillies & wow is this a tough race. We get to see (3) PEMBREY once again, was she unlucky at Randwick? Did she have plenty to offer in the straight? Only J. Mac knows that & importantly he sticks with her today however I’m wary, as much as I’d love to see her win I’m just not convinced, in fact the whole race has me confused. When in doubt, look elsewhere & that’s what I’m doing putting the debutante (10) HELLENIC BELLE on top, she’s had a couple of recent trials & has looked very versatile, she’s in the market & any further support will be encouraging. (1) BY CHOICE & (11) CIARON’S STAR in the mix.

Numbers: 10 – 3 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet: HELLENIC BELLE each-way (small bet).

RACE 4

The Pago Pago is for the males & creates plenty of interest. On first thoughts I was against (5) CENTRAL EUROPE as the slow late sectional on debut suited him running on. However, there’s no doubt he was unlucky being held up & if clear earlier would he been on the scene at the right time & likely won. His trials had been good prior & he likely stands up here pressing his Slipper credentials. (2) WARWOVEN comes out of the same race, will take good benefit fitness wise, the gate isn’t great though, he’ll need a touch of luck. Ditto (1) STAR OF JAMAICA who does plenty of work in his races yet he’s always there fighting hard at the end.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet: CENTRAL EUROPE TO WIN ($2.50 or better).

RACE 5

Race dominated by 2 stables, Chris Waller & Waterhouse/Bott who between them send around the entire field! It’s Waller all the way for me with either (2) BIRDMAN or (5) WOOTTON VERNI, interestingly the former has done me no favours whilst the latter has, however my train of thought is WOOTTON may need one more whilst BIRDMAN is fully fit coming off a strong finishing last start Flemington win. (1) VAUBAN is a class act who placed in a Chelmsford first up last prep, he’s more than capable of figuring at least in the placings once again.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet: BIRDMAN TO WIN/Saving WOOTTON VERNI.

RACE 6

Very competitive race, could go in several different directions. (9) TONKIN was narrowly defeated by his ‘Blue Army’ colleague first up when overhauled right on the line. Parked third he faced the breeze throughout & the tempo was strong, his effort to almost hold on was a good one. Fitter, ridden with cover today he’s a big chance of going one better. (4) KING’S SECRET resumes, has won fresh, very lightly raced & plenty of upside, market? No knock on the flying (8) MAL COUPE who just keeps on winning whilst (1) ENRICHED has solid form lines however the drop back 200m in trip is a concern.

Numbers: 9 – 4 – 8 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

The Group 2 Phar Lap will see (1) SIXTIES go around a very well fancied favourite. Absolutely no disagreement from me as he looks head & shoulders above his opposition. Cracking win here first up he then sat 3 deep winning at Group 3 level over 1400m at Flemington. Solid in the Group 1 last start he finished under a length from the star 3yo Observer. We’ll need a little J. Mac magic from a wide gate however that’s almost a given these days! (3) WEST OF SWINDON comes through the same last couple as (1) SIXTIES & draws well, can place as can the lightly raced & promising (6) TOP REWARD. (10) PANOVA was ok first up, likely to again give a decent start though.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 6 – 10

Suggested Bet: SIXTIES TO WIN.

RACE 8

Today’s feature is the Group 1 Coolmore where I’m with the Victorian mare (4) VERONA ROSE who has come back to racing this prep in terrific form. She made good ground first up in the Group 3 before going home over the top of the leaders second-up in Group 2 company last start against the tempo of the race. She gets on very well with Craig Williams who will once again do the steering tomorrow from a good draw. I’ve always been a big (1) LAZZURA fan, beaten first up she’ll strip fitter & will have been aimed at this race, big danger. (5) ARCTIC GLAMOUR hit the line very strongly in the same race (4) VERONA ROSE won last start, 2 of her 3 wins have been at this venue, don’t underestimate.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet: VERONA ROSE EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

Long time between drinks for (2) MILITARIZE however I’m hoping tomorrow is going to be his day to break back into the winner’s circle. Well fancied in the Group 3 first up he found the 1300m too short however found the line well. Tomorrow he steps up to 1500m which is going to suit ideally, from gate 1 with J. Mac to steer he should land plenty of favours. (1) GLOBE resumes, trials have been good, market will be the best guide. I’m a big (6) LORD PENMAN fan however I did expect him to win more dominantly first up, he was all out getting there by less than half a length. Guess he’ll take good improvement though & I’m certainly not overlooking him.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 6 – 9

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 10

Going with (14) MODELLA in this closing race who made good ground from the back of the field first up in the Group 2 here last month. Only a lightly raced mare she has some very strong form lines last prep finishing within throwing distance of Manaal & the star mare Autumn Glow. Trip suits, she strips fitter & is well drawn for gun jockey Zac Lloyd. No knock (11) CAPTAIN FURAI who will carry the hopes of many punters, solid second-up winner who will be further improved. Judging by her trials (2) PERFUMIST has been set for a first up go however as a speedster the wide draw is of concern.

Numbers: 14 – 11 – 2 – 12

Suggested Bet: MODELLA EACH-WAY.

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