Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing in Brisbane on Saturday comes from Doomben. The weather… well, it doesn’t look great with storms forecast Friday & Saturday, should they arrive we will be racing on a rain affected surface to some extent, the official BOM predicted rainfall is between 5 & 45mm, it’s crystal ball stuff. We open up the day with a 2yo race where (1) ITCHINTOGO has been well supported & fair enough too off a good trial in quick time. I’ll go with value instead & lean to (5) LEAVES OF LORIEN who attacked the line well at her second start & shapes as though 1200m will suit. (4) MAGRITTE is also good odds & another suited by the step up in trip.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: LEAVES OF LORIEN EACH-WAY.

RACE 2

(4) MR BUSTER won 2 races within the space of 4 days when successful here a fortnight back. He lumped 61 & 60kg in the process & although this is officially harder (not a lot) he drops to 53kg! Further cementing his claims, the second placed horse from the latest win bolted in last Saturday at Eagle Farm. (3) CONNECTICUT & (6) COUNTER both may struggle with the likely lack of tempo in this race however I wouldn’t rule either out.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet: MR BUSTER is short, take him to win with 3, 5 & 6 in exotics.

RACE 3

I was super keen on (2) DUSHENKA at Eagle Farm last start & to be brutally honest she went like a ‘busted’. Out the back & never in the race from the outset there was nothing to explain her failure in the stewards report. Her prior runs had been very honest, this is not hard, every chance of bouncing back & at good odds too.  (4) INQUISITOR is on an upward spiral, strong to the line running clear to win at Ballina. (1) WILY JACK another improver, ridden forward last start was the right move.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet: DUSHENKA EACH-WAY.

RACE 4

You’d struggle to find a better weighted/placed horse anywhere today than (3) EL MORZILLO. On official handicap ratings she’s just under 24 points higher than her nearest rival which should see around a 12kg weight differential against her however here she is carrying 3kg less! I don’t think she’s at her very best fresh however just cannot tip against her. (1) ALECTRONA deserves a chance of luck having run four consecutive seconds, versatile she can race either back or forward. (4) READY TO SCHIPP looks the likely leader & is racing well.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet: EL MORZILLO ($3 or better).

RACE 5

Having something each-way (16) CONTILDA’S LOVE who is eligible for easier races however has caught my eye his last couple once in Saturday grade the other in a midweeker which was last start when running home hard from an impossible position in the run (last). (4) NOBLE CONQUEROR closed well when just outgunned last start, plenty of weight however gets the in-form jockey & looks close to a win. Freshened up (14) EVELYN MAY isn’t without a chance, in very good form prior to the let-up.

Numbers: 16 – 4 – 14 – 7

Suggested Bet: CONTILDA’S LOVE EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

Tricky race. (3) EXPRESS PAYMENT pulled up with a slow recovery last start suggesting we put the pen through the run. Prior efforts were good & from the ideal draw Angela Jones will have options early. (4) EXCEED SPEED has been of the scene for almost 50 days, has trialled though & is a definite betting watch. Should (9) LARRIKIN ROGUE bring his barrier manners he’s well up to winning this. Have to pass on (1) FREE CARRY who has let me down one too many times.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

The Listed Keith Noud is an absolute raffle with Pereille & Ouroboros coming out to go around in the last race instead, surely one in each race would have been the right call… certainly would have made it easier for me! I’ve landed on (3) ROCKRIBBED however with little confidence & I will likely switch more than once before they leave the gates. He does have a very strong first up record though. (12) HATCHET is going well this prep, (19) SUNSET DREAMING will be flying home late.

Numbers: 3 – 12 – 19 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up as many as you can at this stage.

RACE 8

Sticking with (13) TEN GOOD REASONS who will be very well placed should the rain arrive. Closed off solidly first up over the 1000m he’s going to appreciate stepping it up to 1350m this afternoon. Interesting runner is (10) CENTENNIAL PARK who was very heavily backed first up recently when finishing last pulling up with cardiac arrythmia, he’s obviously shown his new stable plenty, keeping very safe. (4) HEMAN in the mix as are many others.

Numbers: 13 – 10 – 4 – 11

Suggested Bet: TEN GOOD REASONS EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

Can’t say I’m a fan of (3) SHOT OF WHISKEY who has had his chances to win in the past & on many occasions not quite got the job done. In his favour though he is consistent & likes to race on speed, in fact I’d suggest he needs to lead to win which may be a task here however on an each-way basis he should give a sight. (9) THANKYOU HENRY was good fresh, never in the hunt second up can improve here albeit dropping back in distance. (12) BUNDELLA is lightly raced & going well, certainly in the right yard.

Numbers: 3 – 9 – 12 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 10

Cracking Class 6 to wind up the day with the two scratchings from the Listed Keith Noud earlier in the day (3) PEREILLE & (8) OUROBOROS deciding to take on the easier race. In all honesty I’m keen on both & will end up backing the pair of them however I have to make a decision as to which one goes on top. (3) PEREILLE is likely to have the last shot & there may be a decent speed up front which (8) OUROBOROS will likely set as he is a speedy customer drawn the pole gate. If softened up early he’s vulnerable, if not he’ll take catching. Look for (9) SER JOH to be running home late, step up in distance key for him.

Numbers: 3 – 8 – 9 -12

Suggested Bet: PEREILLE/OUROBOROS TO WIN.

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