Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

We’re off to Rosehill on Saturday with a wet track again certain. A heavy (9) on Thursday there’s no more rain forecast suggesting we could get back to a soft rated surface by the time we run this first race where champion trainer Chris Waller holds all the aces. His pair (1) HIDDEN ACHIVEMENT & (3) SARAPO ran the quinella at Gosford 3 weeks back with the latter closing in late. Rising 100m here he’s going to attract plenty of support to turn the tables however I’m sticking with (1) HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT who dropped back 50m to win that race & will also relish the increase. (4) ZOUTANIUM next best, brings winning form up from Victoria & is in very good hands.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet: HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT TO WIN.

RACE 2

To the Highway where I’m happy to suggest (2) BOYS NIGHT OUT & (10) WARRIOR FOR PEACE can fight the race out. The former comes up with a more favourable draw & will definitely have a head start on his rival who drops back in distance off an outstanding finishing effort at Scone to arrive on the line. Can he reproduce that over 100m less, won’t be easy. The consistent (1) CANADIAN RULER must also be included as can WARRIOR FOR PEACE’s stablemate (9) NEW PHAROAH.

Numbers: 2 – 10 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet: BOYS NIGHT OUT TO WIN/SAVER WARRIOR FOR PEACE.

RACE 3

This week’s Midway does look a competitive affair where I’m with the resuming (7) LADY EXTREME who was narrowly beaten first up last prep before going on to record a further three second placed finishes on or around this level. Has won fresh & can go close here. The widely drawn (14) I AM BRAVE got the job done well on debut at Scone when send around a short price, no weight here wouldn’t be overlooking. (8) HARRY’S BAR should be ready off a trial win, placed both fresh starts to date.

Numbers: 7 – 14 – 8 – 10

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

Good competitive looking race where I’m leaning to (8) HOPPER who impressed winning first up at Warwick Farm finishing off strongly at his first run as a gelding. Suspect he’ll take plenty of improvement fitness wise, should relish the longer trip & he’s in the right hands. (7) KADALL races on speed & will carry no more weight than his last start third, his form lines this prep are quite strong & he gets an in-form jockey to steer. No doubt (2) FEAR NO EVIL will roll forward once again & will take running down, note he’s a winner on all three surfaces.

Numbers: 8 – 7 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

(5) SUMMER FLAME has accepted for this race & also the last where she is the fourth emergency, she does fare better at the gates in that final race & will likely gain a start. Wherever she ends up I’ll tip her on top, hugely underestimated first up she got the job done at a big price which doesn’t happen often from this stable, should have plenty of improvement to come. (13) ELLIPSIS is only lightly raced & showing plenty of promise, she only just lasted at Canterbury however stays at the same trip, draws the pole & drops 5kg. (7) POWER BALLARD showed plenty of speed first up & stopped, fitter this time around.

Numbers: 5 – 13 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet: SUMMER FLAME EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

(4) ENTER THE DRAGON is rapidly building a ‘picket fence’ & a very impressive strike rate winning 5 of his 7 starts with 4 of those being this prep. He rises in class however not in weight, I’ll stick with him. (8) SCALEXTRICS was always up against it from a wide gate at Doomben, in good form prior he can bounce back from the rails gate. (3) FURIOUS wasn’t far away fresh, narrowly beaten second-up, should be ready to fire now & importantly handles all ground.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet: ENTER THE DRAGON EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

The resuming (3) FULLY LIT should be ready to run a race first up with the benefit of two trials under his belt. A winner of his first two starts he then beat all bar the winner in the Black Opal before 4.4L behind Lady Of Camelot in the Slipper. That’s handy form, to be honest I thought he’d be shorter in early markets. (10) KERGUELEN resumes, nothing wrong with his record to date & he did have big wraps on him early, the heavy ground certainly won’t worry him. (16) BRAVE ONE is only lightly raced showing good ability, in good hands also.

Numbers: 3 – 10 – 16 – 12

Suggested Bet: FULLY LIT (if not a noted market drifter).

RACE 8

(5) GLORY DAZE staged a decent form reversal winning at Randwick last Saturday however I think it’s fair to say that was all about the heavy (bottomless) track. His form will tell you once the rain comes, he improves out of sight & considering 4 of his 5 wins have been on soft ground, I’ll back him to repeat the dose. (7) KADAVAR generally comes to hand quite quickly, he can figure in the placings whilst (13) SHAZHAD showed good dash to score on the Gold Coast (heavy), only second up there he should have further improvement to come.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 13 – 10

Suggested Bet: GLORY DAZE TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 9

Victorian visitor (13) HALF YOURS shows plenty of promise & arrives here with a good career strike rate having only faced the starter 7 times to date. Strong at the end of his races he should enjoy stretching out to 1800m. (8) CORMAC T just held on to beat (14) GENTILESCHI at Scone in a photo which could have gone either way, the latter fares worse at the weight by a single kilo, doubt that makes much difference however she fares worse at the gates. (1) PROMITTO is generally thereabouts.

Numbers: 13 – 8 – 14 – 1

Suggested Bet: HALF YOURS EACH-WAY.

RACE 10

Should (22) SUMMER FLAME go around here she’s the top pick however should she not then (17) SO YOU PENCE gets the nod. She just keeps raising the bar at each win & will need to do so once again here making her metro debut, interestingly she’s only raced on dry ground to date so this surface will be new to her. (13) FIRST PERSON is a swimmer who is relishing the recent conditions, would prefer it heavier however can’t rule out as long as it’s at least soft. (15) TOTOKA looks way overs in the early markets, beaten just over a length by (22) SUMMER FLAME at Scone when on the worst part of the track.

Numbers: 22 – 17 – 13 – 15

Suggested Bet: Something TOTOKA each-way.

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