Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

WEST STAR worked across to the breeze from barrier 11 of 11 first-up and was far too good form them, stopping the clock 4L faster than 2 year old average. That should ensure he remains deep in the red here and in a small field of only 7 runners he should safely make his way across to the same position in running, hopefully for the same result. BRAZEN BID can push through along the fence to hold a nice spot behind the leading pair. Soft trial. SOUTHERN SCANDAL covered the ground nicely in his recent 950m trial before being run down late. SALSA SMASH scratched from Wednesday to save for this.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet – WEST STAR WIN

RACE 2

GODDESS OF GIVING suffered her first defeat at the Belmont Park 1000 last start when beaten up the inside by key rival Cash Away. Meets him 1.5kg better at the weights for a short head margin and Lou Luciani takes the blinkers off (all three wins are without shades). Looks a messy race without any discernible speed whatsoever so hopefully she’s not cluttered away on the fence back in traffic. CASH AWAY could well park three deep in this small field of 7 and stay out of trouble. Has the firepower to win again. TOP OF THE POPS let rip in his recent trial and wasn’t wearing blinkers either. RUSSIAN TO THE BAR races fresh over 1000m but could nearly work his way to the top?

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 7 – 4

Suggested Bet – GODDESS OF GIVING WIN

RACE 3

BERBERE won first-up over 1000m last campaign and beat Too Dardy in the process. Quite simply if he reproduces that performance fresh here then he’s the one to hold out. Has had 2x soft trials to prepare him for his first-up assignment and maps to get a gun run tracking the speed. BAYEZID is a jump and run 1000m specialist who will be in front for a long way here. He’s proven in the wet (heavy8 winner) and will skip along at his own leisure out in front. CAPRE OMNIA covered them impressively last start. They’ve figured him out and he swims. LITTLE STRAWBERRY was a tough watch down the straight at Pinjarra last start.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – BERBERE WIN

RACE 4 

CAPRICORN MAN looks to have found a perfect race. He is a 2x Westspeed Platinum winner under Madi Derrick and he returns to this grade after a strong first-up display in a 72+ 1000 when beaten a long neck by Cash Away / Goddess Of Giving who could well frank the form in Race 2 earlier in the program. That was his first career run over the short course, he got crossed early (against his usual pattern) and he was still there in the finish. Really like this race for him. CAPO VELOCE hasn’t won a race in 765 days but he gets weight relief and a soft map. FAMOUS JURNEY gives 110% but it’s hard to see him sitting outside Capricorn Man with more weight and beating him? RUSSIAN SNIPER can sit back and have last crack.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – CAPRICORN MAN WIN

RACE 5

FLURO NEURO ran some monster races when last in work, especially on rain affected surfaces, and his recent trial win suggested he’s come back in good order. He’ll need to be at his top to be toppling undefeated filly Twain’s Angel but if she has to do a little bit of work to get across drawn outside Double Spice / Bigdayonit / He’s Gold then she could be vulnerable late to a swooper. TWAIN’S ANGEL is looking to make it 6 from 6. She’s been a money making machine for loyal followers but this looks tougher than recent assignments, especially carrying a career high 58kg. MY DILEMMA was stiff last start but tends to find bad luck. BEST MOOD has really elevated this campaign.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet – FLURO NEURO WIN

RACE 6

FAT ROY SLIM just keeps getting the job done. He’s looking to win a fifth straight race and his last three wins have been near identical from William Pike. Four or five back the fence and then just back yourself in to outride rivals and the horse to out sprint rivals. He’s showing a ridiculously impressive turn of foot for a ratings grade stayer and the way he’s going the 61kg won’t stop him. Winner off 7 days previously and again rides for luck. Still can’t believe he won last week. CITINO had that race wrapped up and punters/connections were in the line to collect. He gets 1.5kg on Fat Roy Slim and is 1/1 off 7 days (was later DQ’d but proven on the quick spin). HERE FOR CHEQUES is racing consistently well. STYLAX is going far better than it looks.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – FAT ROY SLIM WIN

RACE 7

ROPE THEM IN is on the 7 day back-up after beating the older horses in a 72+ 1200 last weekend. He rises up 3kg and 200m and draws a bit sticky in barrier 10 of 11, but if new rider Paul Harvey can find a spot then his class should take him a long way in this field. Would have been popular in the Listed Raconteur Stakes if they had elected to go that way – instead looks to win another ratings race on his way through the grades. STORMY TAWNY is drawn out there with him. She got to the line well fresh behind Twain’s Angel and proved herself a 7 furlong type in the Mandurah Cup last year. BENJI’S goes well fresh and in the wet. CLASSIC ROGUE battled on okay last start.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – ROPE THEM IN WIN

RACE 8

RICHANCO was 4 weeks between runs going into his last start when finishing third behind Brave Spirit and Chollima. He was forced into the role of pacemaker in that event and in hindsight probably went too slow for his own good (first 800m was 15L slower than average) and by the time he accelerated they were on top of him. Pike goes on and he can get cover this time around. Eachway looks a good bet. GENEROSITY beat home THE BOSS LADY last start in a slowly run 1200. They came home in almost identical L600s and THE BOSS LADY gets a 3.5kg weight swing at SWP, however, the barrier draw makes you lean towards GENEROSITY again. BRAVE SPIRIT has an awkward drawn to overcome but seems the colder you ride him the better he goes.

Numbers: 8 – 10 – 9 – 3

Suggested Bet – RICHANCO EACHWAY

Same Race Multi – Richanco (Top 4) + Generosity (Top 4)

Wide open Raconteur Stakes where up to seven runners will jump in single figures. Clashing form lines left right and centre and a race full of in form gallopers and last start winners. Opportunity to go wide in the Same Race Multi with Richanco and Generosity both to finish Top 4. Both map to get soft runs and have the two form hoops in the State, William Pike and Bradley Parnham.

RACE 9

WONDER WEAPON is bursting to win a race. Got to the line powerfully fresh at 1200, got out late and flew home for third behind My Jimmy second-up at 1400 and now should be peaking at her third run of the preparation. Gets a soft run midfield with cover and with even luck she’s one of the main players in a wide open race. CALIFORNICATION was arguably a good thing beat in the Sky Provincial Final. Held up badly on multiple occasions before bursting through to snatch third on the line. He’s a raw talent. LUVNWAR made her WA when splitting Generosity and The Boss Lady. Great form for a 60+ Graduation. PLAYING GAMES is another 3 year old with upside and versatility.

Numbers: 14 – 1 – 6 – 9

Suggested Bet – WONDER WEAPON EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,5

2,8

1,3,4,5,8,9,10

1,4,6,9,14

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