Races

Michael Heaton’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

Michael Heaton’s Preview

Race 1

NO APOLOGY resumes off the back of two nice trials without blinkers and has the addition of the shades for the first time here. He maps to get a lovely run in transit and can run a big race first-up. BRAVE CONTENDER hasn’t been far away in his last two when hitting the line well two starts back and unexpectedly finding himself in front last time out. He’ll be finishing off strongly. MISS TYCOON is vying for a winning hattrick after leading from go-to-whoa at her past two outings. She was well-rated by Chris Parnham on those occasions and can slide across from her awkward draw to settle prominently again here. The well-related OBSTINATION is the half-sister to Gatting and makes her race debut here. Her trials suggest she has some of her older brother’s ability.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet – NO APOLOGY EACHWAY

Race 2

DOUBLE BUBBLE profiles exceptionally well in a cracking short-course sprinting field for the three-year-olds. She races almost two months between runs and broke the clock in her first-up win last preparation, has won all four of her starts on soft tracks previously and has the option to lead or box seat from her inside draw. The well-hyped SAMIZDAT makes his return and rates highly. He’s unbeaten in two attempts first-up, maps ideally, gets a slight weight pull on DOUBLE BUBBLE from their last encounter and has the addition of winkers for the first time. CATHERINE WHEEL always returns excellent figures and isn’t out of this if she can lead or breeze, while ESSENTIAL SPICE is only coming out of a Class One event but ran more than nine lengths above benchmark on that occasion and the drop back to 1000m here suits.

Numbers: 1 – 2– 8 – 11

Suggested Bet – DOUBLE BUBBLE WIN

Race 3

COME PLAY WITH ME looks set to bring up a winning hattrick en route to the Strickland Stakes in a fortnight’s time. He rises 2kg from his dominant last-start win and will have to carry 62kg but has a big class edge over his rivals and should still get the job done. SALON DU CHEVAL has promised the world and delivered an atlas for most of his recent career but his last-start performance was better than reads on paper. He missed the kick, rattled off easily the fastest closing sections of the race and will appreciate finding a soft track for the first time this prep here. BEG TO DIFFER backs up off seven days, loves the wet and Chris Parnham replaces apprentices who have ridden him at his past three. TOUCH OF SILVER has never stepped past 1800m and is a query at the trip but is better than the remainder.

Numbers: 1– 10 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – COME PLAY WITH ME WIN

Race 4

STOICISM followed up a nice win two starts back with an eye-catching second from near-last at his last outing and maps to get an ideal run midfield here. He steps up from midweek to Saturday level but is a 66+ winner previously and this isn’t a strong race by any means. DEIMOS also faces a rise in grade but he is no doubt Saturday class. He’s recorded outstanding figures throughout his career and won his last start after settling three-wide and without cover, however, he might have to do the same again from this draw. REBEL KNIGHT has been a very costly commodity over time but wasn’t suited last time out and can improve sharply from a much better alley here. ARNIE’S BOY will roll forward in a race without a huge amount of natural speed and should be thereabouts again.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – STOICISM WIN

Race 5

GALAXY STAR hasn’t had the winter feature races gifted to her as we expected, however, her closing sections have been outstanding. The step-up to 1600m here only helps her and she’s unbeaten in four attempts on soft tracks. GREAT SHOT nearly caused a boilover last start and will also benefit from the rise in distance. He can lead without pressure here and is more than capable of pinching it if they let him get away with murder. GATTING was only fair first-up but his final 100m was his best part and he can’t be discounted. CAPPO D’ORO can round out the first four at big odds.

Numbers: 5– 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – GALAXY STAR WIN

Race 6

DOUBLE DIGIT makes his return without the benefit of a trial, however, his last preparation was terrific and this is a drop in grade. He won consecutive 72+ events above benchmark time three and four starts back, drops to a 64+ here and can land in the box seat or three-back-the-fence. Represents each-way value. ROYAL STATUE also returns and didn’t set the world on fire in his two trials, however, he’s another who is suited in this company and can make his presence felt late. SENORITA BONITA has contested very hot 76+, 70+ and 70+ races at her past three outings and can run a big race at odds. She’ll appreciate the drop in class, soft track and an easier lead. Former stablemate MOSCHARD has won his last five and continues to progress form strength-to-strength but this is his toughest test to date.

Numbers: 3 – 6 –7 – 9

Suggested Bet – DOUBLE DIGIT EACHWAY

Race 7

Three-year-old CITY CIRCLE is coming out of very hot sectional races and faces the older horses for the first time at this level. Her figures have been outstanding and she has the tactical speed to be able to work across from his awkward draw and find a position. PEARLS AND PRAWNS resumes without a trial and is unbeaten in two attempts first-up. She was well-supported in Listed races last prep, drops to a 60+ here and can lob one-out and one back. BARON BOSTOCK rises sharply in grade from his last-start win but went an incredible 9.6 lengths above benchmark on that occasion and his previous two efforts were good. STATE ATTORNEY finally got the monkey off his back last start but maps awkwardly here.

Numbers: 15 – 3 – 10 – 11

Suggested Bet – CITY CIRCLE EACHWAY

Race 8

STAGEMAN simply can’t buy a barrier draw this preparation but can still prove hard to hold out if he’s within striking distance when they straighten up. The step up to 1200m here suits and Pike may have to save his best until last. The widely-travelled NIKATAS makes his WA debut and is the x-factor horse off the back of two impressive trials for his new stable. He’s seen a lot of the country and hasn’t won for 546 days but has the highest peak form of this race and should get all the favours in running from the draw. MERVYN has a surprisingly good 1200m record for a horse who stops like he’s been shot over shorter journeys. There is a fair bit of speed drawn under him here but if he can find the lead or breeze he can be in it for a long way again. THE NICCONIAN endured a torrid run first-up but his two trial performances prior to that were excellent. Put a line through his last outing and he can improve sharply here at odds.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 2 – 9

Suggested Bet – STAGEMAN WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

5

3,5,6,7,9

3,10,11,15

1,2,5,8,9

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