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Digby’s AFL Preview – Round 9

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Friday, 19 May

Geelong v Western Bulldogs, Simonds Stadium 5.50pm

Very little separates these two sides in the market and that is entirely understandable. Geelong have owned the Western Bulldogs for some time and despite their best endeavours last season, the premiers haven’t won down at Simonds Stadium for more than a decade. Combine that with Geelong seeking to snap a three-game losing streak on a night when their surgically enhanced venue is unveiled in all its glory for the first time, and it’s not hard to make a case for Chris Scott’s side.

But the Bulldogs are consistent, disciplined and trustworthy. Yes, they are 5-3 like the Cats, but their defeats have all been interstate by narrow margins — Fremantle, Greater Western Sydney and West Coast. Line those up against Geelong’s losses and the contrast is stark. The return of several proven performers, headlined by captain Bob Murphy, is an added bonus for the Bulldogs.

It would be foolish to think there won’t be energy early on from the Cats. Their home fans will demand that. But there is probably no better side than the Bulldogs at being able to handle an onslaught. It wouldn’t be a shock if Geelong bounce back, but I am happy to get it wrong tipping a side that is 100 per cent genuine 100 per cent of the time and should only get better from here on in.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 12 points.

Saturday, 20 May

St Kilda v Sydney, Etihad Stadium 11.45am

If St Kilda are to continue on their current path and set themselves up for a return to finals, they are going to overcome some hoodoos and bogy sides along the way. What better way to start than in this clash with a revitalised Sydney.

The Swans have pulverised the Saints in recent seasons, with the mauling in the corresponding match last season one that still haunts St Kilda fans. But there is no denying the current line-up is in a far better position now to attack Sydney, with the spread of contributors and unrelenting pressure holding Alan Richardson’s men in good stead.

It’s just as well. Sydney dominated North Melbourne from the outset last Sunday as captain Josh Kennedy led the way at the clearances. His influence was profound and sparked his fellow midfielders to follow suit. The battle at the coalface is always important, perhaps even more so at Etihad Stadium where the ball can be moved swiftly in the sterile environment. On what we have seen so far, St Kilda deserve their favouritism tag.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 17 points.

GWS v Richmond, Spotless Stadium 2.35pm

No side and its fans ride the AFL rollercoaster more than Richmond. The final 30 minutes of last Sunday’s match against Fremantle was a case in point. The Tigers went from gone to home to utter desolation in a frantic last term, that left Damien Hardwick’s side 5-3 and critics raising their eyebrows once again at the Tigers’ authenticity.

The current patch of games was always going to ask plenty of Richmond, with this contest seen as one that was always likely to be beyond them. Collingwood stretched the necks of GWS at this venue last weekend and would have won, had it not been for some Josh Kelly magic midfield, Jeremy Cameron’s influence in attack and Steve Johnson’s stunning crumbing goal in the dying stages.

The Giants have elite talent, that we know, but their depth has been questioned by some given the departure of so many solid performers seeking greater opportunity. Their extensive injury list is now placing enormous pressure on the second and third-tier players, not to mention those who are running out each week. This won’t be a cakewalk like the round-19 match between the two sides last season, but the hosts should get the job done.

VERDICT: GWS by 20 points.

Brisbane v Adelaide, Gabba 5.25pm

If we have learnt anything in the first two months of the season, it is there are few guarantees in the AFL in 2017. However, the closest thing to a certainty is Brisbane struggling to compete at a high standard week in and week out. Because of that, Adelaide should be returning to the winner’s circle this weekend.

That said, the Crows will need to play considerably better than they have against North Melbourne and Melbourne in the past fortnight. But the Lions’ slim chances of causing an upset were all but torpedoed earlier in the week when prolific ball winner Tom Rockliff (dislocated shoulder) was ruled out. His absence on top of Mitch Robinson (foot) leaves Brisbane seriously short-changed around the football.

Adelaide’s midfield has been bullied the past two weeks and if it is able to gain some belated traction, the Crows’ forward line will dine out on a Lions defence that is willing, but being exposed regularly.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 39 points.

Collingwood v Hawthorn, MCG 5.25pm

One side here has won three of its past four and the other has lost three of its past four. Yet it is the outfit that has been struggling to win — Collingwood — that is likely to carry the hopes of most tipsters. How so? Hawthorn enter this match without a swag of stars, including Cyril Rioli (knee), Ben Stratton (knee) and James Frawley (toe) after they were injured in a scrappy win over Brisbane.

Conversely, the Magpies did everything but win against Greater Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium, a formline that is surely stronger than that of Hawthorn’s. However, we must take into account that Collingwood and the favouritism tag go together as well as beer and ice cream. Added to that, they haven’t beaten the Hawks since the 2011 preliminary final.

The Hawks’ midfield has been more miss than hit this season, with the departures of Jordan Lewis, Bradley Hill and Sam Mitchell compounded by Jaeger O’Meara’s knee issues. If Collingwood are anywhere near their expected level through the midfield, led by Scott Pendlebury, Daniel Wells, Steele Sidebottom, Jack Crisp, Taylor Adams and possibly the returning Adam Treloar, they should be on the path to victory No.3 for the year.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 19 points.

Sunday, 21 May

Essendon v West Coast, Etihad Stadium 11.10am

In the gun following their round-five drubbing at the hands of Hawthorn — and justifiably so — West Coast have been the quiet achievers the past three weeks. Having rebounded against Fremantle, the Eagles took care of Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval and then held off the Western Bulldogs last round to improve to 6-2.

It is a perfect launch pad for Adam Simpson’s side, which returns to Melbourne, but importantly heads to Etihad Stadium, not the MCG. Regardless of the venue, Essendon are entitled to think they can handle the Eagles, especially after their impressive performance opposed to Geelong last weekend. The 17-point win featured a terrific display from the Bombers’ forward line.

How John Worsfold structures up his attack against West Coast will be intriguing. The Eagles have defended superbly in their three-game winning streak, with the intercept marking of Elliot Yeo and Jeremy McGovern helping stymie a wave of opposition attacks. The Bombers’ chances are likely to depend on how successful they can be in navigating a way to goal, while being mindful of halting West Coast’s quick counterattacks.

VERDICT: West Coast by 19 points.

Melbourne v North Melbourne, MCG 1.20pm

It took eight weeks, but Melbourne showed the football world why so many rated them so highly entering the season. The demolition of Adelaide last Saturday night without Jesse Hogan and Max Gawn — arguably their two most important players — smacked of a side capable of not only playing finals, but winning them.

The challenge for the Demons is to back up that performance against the Kangaroos, who will be strengthened by the return from suspension of Jarrad Waite as they look to continue their dominance against Melbourne. Todd Goldstein should own the aerial battle opposed to Cam Pedersen and Jack Watts, but how his on-ballers handle the grunt and class of Melbourne’s midfield will be crucial.

Melbourne manufactured a winning total against the Crows through a variety of options, with Tom McDonald’s contribution important. The presence of Waite alongside Ben Brown and Mason Wood might force McDonald to spend longer periods in defence than Melbourne would like. But the Demons’ efficiency inside the centre square should deprive the Kangaroos forwards of clean entries.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 21 points.

Fremantle v Carlton, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

Fremantle continue to find ways to win when all looks lost. So much so that the Dockers are now on the brink of the top eight and playing a brand of football that has served Ross Lyon-coached sides well for a long period of time.

Likewise, Brendon Bolton has instilled a sturdy, defence-first mindset into his young Carlton outfit and is clearly making progress. The Blues still have some gaps in their 22 each week, but the discipline, raw talent and upside is undeniable. Bryce Gibbs, Patrick Cripps and Marc Murphy lead a quality midfield, but they are going to need every bit of help imaginable to harness Lachie Neale, Nat Fyfe, Bradley Hill, Michael Walters and David Mundy.

Fremantle aren’t renowned as a great attacking side, but they have more weapons than the Blues do at this present stage. The forecast of inclement conditions increases the likelihood of a real arm-wrestle and that is a scenario which suits the Dockers better.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 23 points

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