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The Scout: EPL Week 13 Preview

Posted on | Posted by The Scout

Manchester City v Liverpool – Saturday, November 25 (Kick-off 8.30pm, WA time) 

It seems odd to consider Liverpool as a surprise packet this season. But given their struggles of the 2022-23 campaign, when they finished fifth, their current position is, well, surprising. 

Second on the table and just a point behind Manchester City, Liverpool will be top of the pile if they win at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday. 

The tricky bit, of course, is being able to beat City, who have scored 13 goals in their last three league games with victories over Manchester United (3-0) and Bournemouth (6-1) before their recent 4-4 draw against Chelsea. 

City were matched by the Blues in every department in what might turn out to be a blueprint for Liverpool, who must improve on their last outing against Pep Guardiola’s side. The Reds conceded way too much possession and created just a single shot on target when Mo Salah scored in a 4-1 defeat in April. 

Two of the goal scorers that day won’t be involved for City this time with Kevin De Bruyne still on the injury list and Ilkay Gundogan now at Barcelona. 

Some things stay the same, though. After a very brief interlude – when he failed to score in the rout against Bournemouth – Erling Haaland has scored four goals in two games against Young Boys of Switzerland and Chelsea. He now has 13 Premier League goals from 12 appearances. 

Liverpool’s goals have also been coming from a familiar source with Mohamed Salah chipping in with 10 this campaign, six goals more than Liverpool’s next highest contributor, Darwin Nunez. 

Dominik Szoboszlai has only scored once for the Reds but he will be in a good mood ahead of this fixture after scoring twice – including a wondergoal – in Hungary’s weekend win over Montenegro. 

There is not a lot between the teams statistically with City edging it on average number of goals scored (2.67 to 2.25). But Liverpool have edged things defensively (0.83 goals conceded per game versus City’s 1.00) and chances created (2.75 to 2.58). 

It all points to a cracking match. 

Suggested Bet: Draw @ $4.30*

Newcastle United v Chelsea – Saturday, November 25 (Kick-off 11pm, WA time) 

The hospital ward in Newcastle town centre has fewer patients than the injury list at St James’ Park as manager Eddie Howe looks to send out a patched-up team against Chelsea. 

There were concerns that Newcastle’s march into the Champions League and their subsequent good form in the League Cup would eventually take its toll, and the signs are starting to appear. 

After a 3-0 League Cup win over Manchester United and controversial 1-0 win over Arsenal, Newcastle have lost to Borussia Dortmund in Europe and Bournemouth on England’s south coast. Making matters worse are injuries to Alexander Isak, Callum Wilson, Dan Burn, Sven Botman and a string of others. 

The timing is almost perfect for Chelsea, who are showing signs of improvement under Mauricio Pochettino. They have lost just one of their past eight games in all competitions and have scored eight goals in their past two outings. 

A 4-1 win over the nine-men of Tottenham came before a thrilling 4-4 draw against Manchester City. After scoring a hat-trick against Spurs, Nicolas Jackson also found the net against City. Cole Palmer was also on target in the Blues’ most recent games, although both were from the penalty spot. 

A win for 10th-placed Chelsea would take them within a point of Newcastle, who go into the weekend’s fixtures in seventh place. 

Newcastle looked flat in their defeat to Bournemouth. Even Anthony Gordon, whose energy has been a key feature this season, looked like he had run out of batteries. In the absence of Isak and Wilson, Gordon and Miguel Almiron are the Magpies most likely goal scorers. 

This could be backs-to-the-wall stuff for the home side, who face a Chelsea side with a spring in their step. 

Suggested Bet: Total goals under 2.5 + Both teams to score – NO (Same Game Multi) @ $2.55*

Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa – Sunday, November 26 (Kick-off 10pm, WA time)

After a trio of successive Manager of the Month awards, Ange Postecoglou is hoping to avoid three Premier League defeats in a row as he prepares his side to take on Aston Villa. 

The bad news for Aussie Ange is that Villa, the odd slip aside, have been flying. A surprise defeat to Nottingham Forest is their only loss in their most recent eight Premier League matches. 

Scoring goals has not been a problem under Unai Emery, who has transformed the team since taking over just over a year ago. 

Top performers like Ollie Watkins (6 goals and 5 assists), Moussa Diaby (3 goals, 3 assists), Leon Bailey (3 goals, 3 assists) John McGinn (three goals, two assists), and Douglas Luiz (5 goals and 1 assist) have taken Villa up to fifth place on the table. A 6-1 win over Brighton stands apart as their best performance. 

For all the great work Postecoglou has done with Spurs, a win for Villa will take them above the London side with just over a third of the season done. Spurs go into the weekend fixtures in fourth place, just two points behind leaders Manchester City and a point further adrift of Liverpool and Arsenal. Having been unbeaten in their first 10 games of the season, they are now just a point above Villa. 

Red cards to Cristian Romero and Destiny Udogie didn’t help Spurs’ cause in defeat to Chelsea. But it was their failure to create and take chances – despite having almost 60% of possession – that cost them against Wolves. 

Injuries have also robbed Postecoglou of James Maddison and Micky van de Ven, while Romero is still suspended, as is Yves Bissouma for an accumulation of yellow cards. Rodrigo Bentancur is Bissouma’s likely replacement in the starting line-up. 

If Postecoglou can conjure a result at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, expect a rush of experts to return to his bandwagon. 

Suggested Bet: Draw + Both teams to score – YES (Same Game Multi) @ $4.10*

*Odds correct as at 10am, 23rd November 2023.

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