Races

Scott Embry’s Wednesday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

NOBLE BORN looks like finding the front and getting it soft. From there Tash Faithfull controls the tempo and can dictate terms to suit herself. Huge effort in defeat behind a nice one most recently. Left alone in front she’ll take running down. BUZZOOM gets her chance to shake the ‘nonny’ tag after running back to back to back second placings to start the preparation. This is only a 4 horse field (and Green & Shady is accepted for Northam Thursday) so she won’t get a better chance to break through. Has a short sharp burst of speed which should be suited to small field racing. GREEN AND SHADY comes from a Kalgoorlie maiden but clearly has upside. Further they go the better for him. ENGLISH BAY chased hard on debut in an encouraging debut but this is harder.

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – NOBLE BORN WIN

RACE 2

MAHALEO is a wonderful opportunity for stable apprentice Beaux Edwards. Made his debut in a 3 year old 0MWLY with 58.5kg when finishing third behind Goldfrapp and He’s A Sizzler, finished fifth in the same grade at 1000m behind Bitofmerit, Buzzoom, Champagne Dame and Pale Rider and then finished fourth at 1200m to Probity, Buzzoom and War Gem. Any of those named horses would be even money chances in this and with the claim he gets in with only 53kg. Looks a great race for him. BELOVED STAR has gone under at twos on at two of her three outings to date. Being priced on her pedigree rather than her trials and race starts. GOLD FRIARS might be able to work to the top in a race without much tempo. From there Paul Harvey could be controlling things. REEL SAFE was a better run than it reads on paper last start.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet – MAHALEO WIN

RACE 3

TESTIFYING is clearly still a work in progress but this looks the easiest race she has seen so far in her short career. On debut finished a distant third behind Let’sdeal and subsequent maiden winner There’s a Thought and then at start number two ran into two even sharper ones in Devoted and Noble Born. This is a far, far weaker maiden and she could sneak under the guard in early markets. HEAR ME has been running them along and unable to be settled by riders. Enter Paul Harvey. If he can pinch a cheap section he’ll be rolling from the 600. AZTEC GOLD was doing her best work late at her return from a long spell. I’M A DREAMER gets a soft run along the fence.

Numbers: 12 – 3 – 10 – 9

Suggested Bet – TESTIFYING EACHWAY

RACE 4

SAVANIK resumed in a blaze of glory when weaving a remarkable passage late to score first-up and showing it was no fluke when winding up in style down the centre at Northam second-up to record back to back wins. Thrown in the deep end last start from a C1 into a C5 in the Ladies Day Cup at Northam and now comes back into a C3. From the draw can track up in behind the speed and if the gaps appear late she’ll be finishing powerfully. BEANIE was entitled to fade late last start but just kept coming and recorded a rare four deep the trip victory. Has come back to racing bigger and better this preparation. ZADAR ROCK takes the big step from a maiden into a C3, however, looks like getting things his own way out in front and looks progressive. If the leaders are skipping away then he’ll be popular with punters. JADAVI on the other hand is a backmarker and will need them to be running on.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – SAVANIK WIN

RACE 5

TIBETAN BLACK is flying at the minute. Won her maiden with a big effort when tramping deep early, pulling herself to the top and never slowing down. Went into a C1 and was never really in the race from an awkward gate. Last start was bolting at the back of the field and got home in impressive sections. Looks ready to win again. RECALLED is a maiden in a C1 but does look to have upside. Looks like he’ll get better and better the further they go. PRINCE GUELPH has quality 3 year old Saturday form to his name and was exceptionally well placed last start when scoring. BRING EURO is a definite chance of finding the front and giving a kick turning for home.

Numbers: 7 – 9 – 5 – 10

Suggested Bet – TIBETAN BLACK EACHWAY

RACE 6

STORM COMMANDER maps to get every chance tucked away in behind a spirited early tempo through the likes of Type Won, Pick Your Battles and Love Drunk Baby. From there he will have a significant map advantage over his main rival in Treasured Star. Given he is likely to be $5+ on opening and she is likely to be in the red it’s a betting opportunity for the brave. Loved his trial without blinkers and his 2 year old SWP form is strong enough to be testing the favourite. TREASURED STAR is the obvious danger. Her maiden win was nothing short of arrogant and she’s been given the “carnival” prep: debut effort then a let-up. If she can zap them from near last over 1100m then she’s the real deal. LOVE DRUNK BABY is going well. GO FORWARD brings intrigue at his WA debut.

Numbers: 4 – 13 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet – STORM COMMANDER WIN

RACE 7

GATES OF BABYLON is rarely seen in this grade and is well placed by Brett Pope. The once m80 rater is back into a special conditions 60+ and after the claim for Hannah Fitzgerald he carries only 1.5kg more than he did three starts ago in a 72+ behind Comfort Me and Hot Zed. If he can kick through to hold the front, he’ll be there for a long way. If you go through all of his wins they’ve been at breakneck tempo so if he cops pressure from the outside it’s not the worst thing in the world. STANDOUT ROSE had absolutely no luck first-up and second-up was attacking the line late. Gets back and will be coming home hard. MOET DE VEGA brings alternate form through the NW season at Broome. Trialled up nicely and is an excellent use of the Keshaw Dhurun claim. PROCONSENT is another who is a significant class dropper. Gets the right run and is suited in this grade.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – GATES OF BABYLON EACHWAY

RACE 8

CROSS STATEMENT, MERCANTO, MYSTERY MOMENT and REBELZONE all look capable of winning far better races than just a C1 on a Wednesday. This should be an incredibly strong form reference and a cracking race. Siding with CROSS STATEMENT who has the shades reinstated and the engagement of Holly Watson’s 3kg claim. She’s going to become very popular on Ascot front runners and Cross Statement has above average ability. MYSTERY MOMENT has a powerful turn of acceleration and once she hit top gear on debut, she was at a different level to her battling maiden opponents. REBELZONE comes from a family of winners and stamped herself as a talent on debut at Kalgoorlie. Tracks up in behind Cross Statement. MERCANTO has been hit and miss and does things wrong. Clearly a motor in there.

Numbers: 1 – 10 – 12 – 2

Suggested Bet – CROSS STATEMENT EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

1,2,5,6,7,9,10
4,13
1,2,3,5,8,9
1,2,10,12

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