Races

Scott Embry’s Wednesday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

ENTICING will likely open on the third line of betting behind Schuhplatter and Playing Red and is definitely a live chance. Jury was out heading into his maiden two starts ago but in an astute move Jim Taylor elected to settle him rearward and it paid dividends. Last start went from a maiden into a hot C3 and was far from disgraced. Matched motors with Material Witness late and has seemingly turned a corner. SCHUHPLATTER won soft down the straight and only looks better suited round the corner. PLAYING RED is proving a frustrating mare to follow. Clearly has ability but finds traffic. LORD AUGUSTUS had no luck first-up no trial.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet – ENTICING WIN

RACE 2

COLD SHIZZLE has been building and building at two runs to date. On debut ran into sharp filly Ponyo (Buzzoom third) in a hot midweek race. Second start went straight into a Saturday and was far from disgraced when finishing within 2L of subsequent Saturday winner Ain’t No Other Man. Looks to get his chance here. TWICE LUCKY was gifted the race when allowed to walk them in the middle stages. Looked a different animal finding the fence. GUARD THE SAFE trialled up well and was thrown into the deep end on debut against some genuinely speedy 1000m types. BANDALERA BEAU did it tough on debut and kept coming.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – COLD SHIZZLE WIN

RACE 3

CELEBRITY MAN has been a wallet burner for punters so far in his career and goes around again deep in the red. Last start was finishing off well over 1200m and the way he attacked the line suggested that 1400 would be right up his alley. Pike can have him a pair closer from the draw and this looks the race for him to break maiden status. SUNSPHERE goes round big odds having shown little in two race starts. Recent trial however was encouraging when hitting the line under a hold. FREE SOLO didn’t flatter at trials but was also never asked for an effort. Knocked on the door last preparation. TENA KOUTOU will likely need further but can sprint well fresh.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – CELEBRITY MAN WIN

RACE 4

JEDI MIND rises 3kg coming off a set weight maiden win into a 3yo 0MWLY which isn’t an easy thing to do but he also strikes a weak class of opponent. Drawn a gate, Brett Pope’s stable ticking over well, Chris Parnham riding winners left right and centre and a progressive looking horse with a turn of foot. Looks hard to beat but also looks like going round very short. JUSTHANDY hit the line well last week and can settle much closer (could even lead) from the better draw. MIYAGI hasn’t fired a shot since her first-up win but can bounce back. CONVALESCE is racing very greenly and hasn’t quite returned the same horse.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet – JEDI MIND WIN

RACE 5

THE VERDICT makes her own luck and takes running down. Won three in a line (maiden, C1, 2&3yo 0MWLY) before taking on the older horses last start in a Saturday 60+ Graduation. Lead them into the corner, gave a kick and only faded late. The Tri For Us form has proven strong over the last few months and she comes back in trip and back in grade. Compressed weight scale offsets the 60kg impost and she should give a sight. BLOW ME OUT was chasing a long way out in a race where Wiener Waltz ran them ragged. Should only improve here. SMILE FOR ME an improver from the draw. TRASURED PRIZE balanced up well and hit the line hard to break her maiden but this is definitely tougher.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet – THE VERDICT WIN

RACE 6

ADORE ME got the blows in betting first-up but defied the drift to score an impressive win. It was only a lowly 46+ at York (rarely hold up as form references) but she did it first-up at 1300 with 59.5kg from the rear. Really let down powerfully and had to sustain the effort from a fair way out. Can box seat here and measure up in town. SHOOTING SHIROCCO was set a task last week and was entitled to fade late. Backing up off 7 days and W.Pike replaces a 4kg claimer. CORNFLOWER is well suited in C3 grade and trialled up well enough. PRECAUTIONARY has always flashed potential (beat Off Wego, Captain Burglar and Chiclett in her maiden win) but is hard to catch.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – ADORE ME WIN

RACE 7

SAN CRISPINO doesn’t win out of turn and is yet to salute the judge at Belmont after 13 outings but looks to be going in career best form and grows a leg when she is drawn in soft to track the tempo. Looks a strong and genuine speed on paper and in these apprentices races they usually go even harder than expected. Beaux Edwards can track them up leader’s back or three back the fence and save every inch of ground in the process. Coming out of the right form races and looks a live chance at double figures. UNCLE LINO doesn’t run bad races, honest as they come and a tough on-speed type. CHASING CHAOS ran into a highly progressive staying type last start. Comes out running. CUBAN TWIST is drawn in the middle of the line and will need to get across early. If she does, she’s hard to toss.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 8 – 3

Suggested Bet – SAN CRISPINO EACHWAY

RACE 8

SECRET STATUE put the writing on the wall first-up. Settled last in a fast run 1200 at Pinjarra when finishing off hard to get within a length of talented filly Vane Tempest late running all the standout sections (fastest last 1000, 800, 600, 400 & 200). Steps straight up to 1400m and finds a very winnable race. If he balances within 3-4L of the leaders at the top of the straight he should be going very close. AVA EXPRESS looked to have something in the tank crossing the line last start. Always wary of a horse like him who is proven in this grade (and higher) in the past. BROTHER PADDY can settle much closer in the run from the inside draw. NEW AMSTERDAM had to do some work in the early stages last start.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – SECRET STATUE WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

1,4,5,8

1,2,3,5

1,2,3,4,5,8,10

1,3,5,7

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