Races

Scott Embry’s Sunday Carnarvon Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

NOBEL STAR comes back to 1000m and that looks key to her winning chances. Last start was beaten 6.6L but did travel well and lead them into the corner. Victoria Corver is riding Carnarvon well and if she jumps she can find the front on this filly and from there she can be hard to run down. SUPER BON went around at 50-1 at her WA debut and lead them up for 1111m at Geraldton until nailed on the post by La Chaive. Interesting runner first-up no trial. PRINCESS LILYTESS never got warm last start. Looking for an improved effort. NERO CHIN CHIN is a massive query back in trip and yet will almost certainly jump favourite. 

Numbers: 8 – 3 – 7 – 1  

Suggested Bet – NOBEL STAR EACHWAY    

RACE 2 

CASUAL TRADE won three in a line before going around $1.65 at his most recent when being slow away and being shuffled back in the field into the kickback which he clearly resented. Got going once the race was all over in front of him and was a clear forgive effort. Great opportunity for Tyla Becker and he can settle right over the speed here. VOLPE brings alternate form. Keep safe at his Carnarvon debut, especially if Hopwood can find the front. NOBEL IMAGE is ultra consistent and never far from the winner in this grade. JUPITERS SUN is doing a bit wrong but clearly going well. 

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 3 – 5  

Suggested Bet – CASUAL TRADE WIN

RACE 3

JENABEL is in white hot form and is pulling her way into races which is the impressive part of her recent victories. Won a 64+, won a 56+ and ow returns to 64+ grade and strikes a fairly open, even and winnable race. From the barrier Kate Southam can have her right over them turning for home and she’s an in form mare who is loving Carnarvon life. MARXIAN brings X-Factor to the race. First start on the dirt but a staying type who can sprint well fresh. MADRID CENTRO went round at 1000 last start as a glorified barrier trial. This is a different kettle of fish. Don’t leave out. HONORFIC put the writing on the wall first-up. Always forgiving of one poor run. 

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 5 – 7 

Suggested Bet – JENABEL WIN  

RACE 4 

MYSTICAL MAN is coming out of a maiden where he won officially by 6L but if you watch the replay closely it looks like Natasha Faithful had a lap full of horse a long way from home and was simply keeping him underneath her to make sure he didn’t hit the front too early. Could have won by 16 not just 6. Always going to be a risky betting proposition because he settles so far off them but he has some real raw talent. LIKE HIM A BIT is a 47 start C1 but should find the front for Beaux Edwards and if the favourite doesn’t show up can lead throughout to victory. ILLMATIC’S EFFORT in a 56+ three starts ago was great. SHIVERS OF JOY is always there abouts. 

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 7 – 9  

Suggested Bet – MYSTICAL MAN WIN

RACE 5

MOVENZA broker her maiden over 1000m when going round at 20-1 three starts ago and won impressively by over 2L from the breeze. Backed it up and showed it was no fluke when sitting outside and just off Verdigras in a sizzling 1200m C1 which was run 6L faster than class average. Verdigras went around a well supported $1.30 favourite at his next outing and made the form look good. Movenza stepped into 56+ grade and was doing it tough throughout when far from disgraced only beaten 3.5L. Back to a C3 and should get across from the gate. ALL THE JULZ was a hard mare to catch at Geraldton this season but her form is definitely stronger than what the majority of these bring. FROSTY BAY is getting better and better under Ray Malpass. DASH FOR KNICKERS gets the right run from the inside draw. 

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 4 – 1      

Suggested Bet – MOVENZA WIN

RACE 6 

MORDOR was a big effort in defeat last start behind Klondike Kenny. Went around under $3, worked hard when wide the trip form an awkward draw and went down fighting. Now gets 1kg on Klondike Kenny and a set of blinkers for the first time. Another tough draw for Tash Faithfull to contend with but if he gets across he’s the one to beat. KLONDIKE KENNY has hit form and there looks to be no reason on paper why he wont’ get an identical run to what he enjoyed last start wen winning. CORPORATE TRADER finds a new home and is untested on the dirt. Best is good enough. MYTHICAL TRUST is getting on as a rising 11 year old but this looks a great race for him. 

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 6 – 4  

Suggested Bet – MORDOR WIN

RACE 7

CATIA has been a revelation for Jon Jachmann. Weight is quickly catching up with her but hard not to like the way she’s been accelerating and charging late in her races. MOMENTS OF MAGIC didn’t jump last start. Prior to that was able to find the front and never looked like being run down. SEA LAKE had her first start on the Carnarvon surface when finishing second to Verdigas and looked to handle it brilliantly when travelling up nicely mid race. Keep safe. WOODBUG was going super earlier in the season. Wide gate might not be the worst thing for him.  

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 9 – 10 

Suggested Bet – CATIA WIN 

Quaddie (Race 4 – 7)

2,6
1,2,3,4
3,5
1,2,5,9,10

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