Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1  

IT’S ALL A RUMOUR had been building with every run and was duly rewarded last start with a SWP 1300m victory. Rises 2kg in weight but don’t think he takes on a much stronger field and he should get a near identical run in transit. Can’t see why he won’t go close again. UNCLE GERARD is a work in progress, still very green and has a lot to learn. The step to 1400m should suit him and provided he isn’t posted three deep the trip he looms as a danger. REJUVA KING gives every indication he will only get better out to 1400m and beyond. BIRD’S THE WORD has been solid in every run this prep.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – IT’S ALL A RUMOUR WIN

RACE 2  

ASTRO WARRIOR was really well found in betting last start and won with ease. He is really well suited to racing in this grade and from the ideal draw Lucy Warwick can either lead or box seat. Thinking that he’ll cross Wild Front early and find the fence and from there he’s the one they all need to run down. KEEP ATTACKING was brave in defeat last start. Beaten by Arcadia Grace fair and square but did sit over the top of a strong tempo (first 700 run 7L faster than average) and he had 60kg. Race has already produced Enticing for victory. Draw is awkward but he’s progressive. REIGN OF FIRE is extremely well placed. This is technically the lowest grade race he has ever contested. KICK A GOAL SON may need further.  

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet – ASTRO WARRIOR WIN

RACE 3  

MOOD SWINGS looks to have found a great race on paper. If he steps cleanly he should nearly cross to the fence (Glasgow Girl the only other speed horse and she’s been hit and miss out of the machine). Regardless of whether he leads or breezes he’s the class runner of the field and his first-up run when sitting outside of Nowhiteflag was enormous. Things didn’t go his way last start and he probably didn’t overly appreciate the Heavy conditions. Drying surface, limited speed, looks a great set up for him. EEYORE WAYZ backs up off 7 days and drops out of a Listed Belmont Newmarket. With the right run he’s dangerous late. MERCANTO has been a model of consistency this preparation. Gets a cheap run along the fence. GLASGOW GIRL next best, if she jumps.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 6  

Suggested Bet – MOOD SWINGS WIN

RACE 4  

SUNNYSILK might be the forgotten horse in this field. Plenty of speed (Born To Rule, Ponyo, Agent Jay) should ensure they’re running along throughout and that’s the kind of 1000m dash that a get-back run on mare like Sunnysilk needs. Her run four starts ago beaten 2L in a 66+ behind Nowhiteflag, Sneaky Chance, State of Power and Beads was huge. Since then she’s had very little luck. BORN TO RULE is a wet track mare. She’ll look for the top and gets in with no weight after the Holly Watson claim. PONYO has won both of her races when finding the front and dictating terms. Interesting to see how she’s ridden early. UNIVERSAL PLEASURE is a classy mare. Should enjoy a lovely track into the race.

Numbers: 6 – 7 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet – SUNNYSILK EACHWAY

RACE 5

CRESCENT CITY, BOLD SUCCESS, OUR NORMAN and SUGAR CAIN met last start in a slowly run sit and sprint staying affair on a Heavy8 (first mile = 15L slower than average, L600 = 9.5L faster than average) where Our Norman was allowed to dictate terms out in front and hold them all off. Thought CRESCENT CITY chased hard considering he was 28 days between runs and at a staying trip for the first time since the 2021 Aquanita Stakes. Pat Carbery jumps aboard and he gets in with only 54.5kg. BOLD SUCCESS has failed multiple times off a freshen. Forgive, forget and expect him to bounce back from the breeze. OUR NORMAN will be there for a long way. OLDEN won well last start and drops 6kg.

Numbers: 4 – 6 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet – CRESCENT CITY WIN   

RACE 6

LET’S GALAHVANT has been a pleasant surprise packet for Team Pearce over the winter. Has had 8 starts and won 4 of them including a dominant last start win in a C5 on a Soft7 at Northam. Prior to that was three deep the trip outside the leaders with 58.5kg and went down in a three-way photo this track, this distance, this grade. Hard to fault and with a lack of speed engaged think he gets across without burning much petrol. VITAL BLAST was a late scratching after the track downgrade last Saturday and finds a far more suitable assignment. First-up last campaign resumed in a 78+ behind The Spruiker, Chantorque, Resortman, Kenyluck, Written Matter, Carocapo, Gemma’s Son and Flying Missile. This is winnable. ALSEPHINA is a lightly raced filly with upside. The draw hurts. HONEY DEW demolished them on a Heavy track last start. Drying conditions dent her chances.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 7 – 5  

Suggested Bet – LET’S GALAHVANT WIN

RACE 7

BLINDER trialled well leading into this return to racing and was thrown into the deep end first-up against some inform types in the Jockey Celebration Day Stakes. Finished fifth behind Ginger Flyer, Savage One, Nowhiteflag and Dig Deep beaten 4L. Drops from an 84+ back into a 66+, is a proven weight carrier (3x winner with 59+) and maps a treat from barrier 4. Even race with plenty of chances and he is one of them. ADVANCED demolished moderate opposition on a Soft7 at Northam in his Michael Grantham debut and then was immediately tipped out after his disappointing run at Ascot. Trialled super for his return. ALLEZ ALLEZ held his own behind Phanta and Multinational first-up. VANE TEMPEST is on trial at 1400m. Real X-Factor.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 5 – 2   

Suggested Bet – BLINDER EACHWAY

RACE 8 

GINGER FLYER has now produced three consecutive PB ratings in her last three outings. She’s clearly in a rich vein of form and while she rises to 58kg in this company she has form all around her main rivals in Phanta and Savage One. The money that came her way last start was phenomenal and it was proven to be astute. Given the way she’s stepping she’ll sit off Savage One, Phanta and No Apology in the run and be coming hard late. PHANTA has lead and won his three races this preparation. Not sure if he can cross Savage One early so he may have to do it from the breeze here. NO APOLOGY is drawn to get a lovely stalking run throughout. SAVAGE ONE hasn’t missed the top two since September 2021. In that period he has had 12 starts. Incredibly consistent.

Numbers: 4 – 7 – 11 – 8

Suggested Bet – GINGER FLYER WIN

RACE 9

CATALPA has returned to racing well this time in. Didn’t get any luck first-up when wide throughout behind Frigid (finishing 1.5L off Mr Mt Walker), won a 3yo 62+ beating subsequent winners Knot Secret, Success Play and Canny Jack) and then chased hard behind Mr Mt Walker last start. Think Keshaw Dhurun will be aggressive early looking for a forward position and if he gets across, he’s the one to beat. ABLOH looks like the kind of horse who will improve with each and every run. POSITIVE IMPACT is a raw talent who steps up in grade. MR MT WALKER runs to a very similar level every time he goes to the races and that level is good enough to win this.

Numbers: 1 – 13 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet – CATALPA EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,7

1,2,3,5,8

4,7,8,11

1,2,5,7,9,13

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