Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

DEVIL’S DUST comes from a lowly maiden handicap at York but drops 2.5kg on his most recent effort back into a set weights race and draws to box seat. Winkers go on and he will likely enjoy the run of the race leader’s back. This race is devoid of real speed and he should get his chance. Eachway in a weak race. I AM GROOT drops back from 1600 to 1200 and should land right on top of the speed. Hopefully can go close to giving Jarrad Noske his first winner as a trainer. WEDNESDAY was hitting the line strongly on debut and looks better suited at 1200. DARCELE put in a couple of impressive runs last preparation.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 11 – 8

Suggested Bet – DEVIL’S DUST EACHWAY

RACE 2

FRIDAY KNIGHT could not have done any more on debut when running the fastest 800, 600, 400 and 200 of the race and the fastest final 200 split of the meeting. He is new, he is green, he is raw but he is undeniably talented. With Brooklyn Pier and Gemma’s Son likely to lock horns in front he gets his chance to pounce late. Risky betting proposition because he does so much wrong but exciting none the less. OUR DANNI ran out of her skin first-up no trial and should enjoy the box seat run. GEMMA’S SON returns to the races and gets in with a winnable weight after the claim. BROOKLYN PIER can obviously win again but many need to absorb some pressure here.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – FRIDAY KNIGHT WIN

RACE 3

YOUDOYOU finished off well on debut behind a very impressive and talented type in Triple Missile. From the draw can sit much closer in running and this race has absolutely no speed at all. Could turn into a sit, sprint and she looks capable of running a race at an eachway price. CAPTAIN BURGLAR won like a horse who would make the grade. Could be an ugly race speed and map wise but if Chris Parnham can get him into the race he’ll finish off powerfully. OFF WEGO has won two races off the back of slow tempos so while he might find himself in an awkward position he can pick up and accelerate. TYPE WON looks like getting away with some very cheap sections out in front.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – YOUDOYOU EACHWAY

RACE 4

GUNNAGO is racing well, backs up off 7 days and gets some important weight relief. Pateman will need to time his run because he likely settles back at the tail with Leading Girl and while he probably doesn’t have the same turn of foot as her, he does have toughness on his side and racing under his belt at this trip. LEADING GIRL steps to 2000m for the first time in her career and is likely to settle last in the run. Could be a touch vulnerable, especially considering she jumps odds on. NOIR DE RUE doesn’t know how to run a bad race. He will use this as a platform for a 7 day back up into the Kalgoorlie Cup but expecting him to be right in the finish here. MACKENZIE BROOK may have been flattered first-up by the sit, sprint conditions of the race. First 1600m 52L slower than average (not a typo).

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – GUNNAGO EACHWAY

RACE 5

MONEY MATTERS will likely be double nominated for Saturday and for the Hannans Handicap at Kalgoorlie on Wednesday so not a guaranteed starter but he if does go round in this race then he should be mighty hard to beat. Stakes winning 3-year-old at 1600m and backing up off 7 days from a high-quality feature behind Celebrity Queen and Cliffs of Comfort. Maps to find the front and 57kg a luxury for a horse of his ability. UTGARD LOKI is the obvious danger on paper and the logical on top selection if Money Matters is withdrawn. Big effort at 1200m last start for a horse looking for further. LORDHELPMERUN looked all at sea at Kalgoorlie. He can bounce back. MRS BROWN’S BOY was sent to the top in an unfamiliar role last start and ran himself into the ground.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet – MONEY MATTERS WIN

RACE 6

ARNIE’S BOY is getting extremely close and looks to enjoy a soft run from gate 1. Ash Maley’s yard has really hit form (Why Choose Her, Bad Wolf, Jag The Joker) and once Arnie’s Boy finds form he can really hold it. Likely takes the box seat run from gate 1 and does no work in running. Always goes round an eachway quote and always an eachway chance. COME RIGHT BACK is green but once the penny drops he’s going to win his fair share of races. He seems to get lost in running and runs his races in patches but there is clearly a motor under the hood. MODERATOR was jumping out of the ground last start. Needs some luck from the draw but clearly flying. PLAYING MARIKA maps to get an identical run to last start.

Numbers: 9 – 4 – 8 – 3

Suggested Bet – ARNIE’S BOY EACHWAY

RACE 7

LONG BEACH vs CLIFFS OF COMFORT is a mouth-watering match race on paper. LONG BEACH could emerge as Bob Peter’s Winterbottom horse for 2020 and CLIFFS OF COMFORT was the run of the meeting last week when nailed on the post after punching into a hurricane and leading them for 1199m. LONG BEACH narrowly gets the nod because he is so progressive and reading between the lines he is held in higher regard than Celebrity Queen. Picked up Condor Heroes and This’ll Testya like they were C1 horses last start at 1000m and should only be better suited at 1200m. Provided he has Cliff’s of Comfort within 3L turning for home it’s game on. CLIFFS OF COMFORT is a different horse when he finds the fence and his effort last week was herculean. EEYORE WAYZ smashed the clock last week and the only reason he’s pushed down the order is due to the unfavourable map. PULI is not in the same class but he’s an emerging talent.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 6 – 10

Suggested Bet – LONG BEACH WIN

RACE 8

VITAL SILVER looks impeccably placed in this Set Weights and Penalties feature. He is a m111 rater who gets in with only 58.5kg, maps to enjoy the run of the race in the box seat and is dual Group 1 placed at 1200m. He was super first-up when over-racing and finding traffic in the middle stages before letting down powerfully in the final furlong. Brilliant race oozing with talent but in the weight conditions he is thrown in. RED CAN MAN is the real deal and while he likely has to breeze he’s incredibly hard to get past. Loves to win and is as tough as he is talented. STAGEMAN trialled well and should get the right run midfield. CUP NIGHT settles three back the fence and needs an ounce of luck.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 11 – 5

Suggested Bet – VITAL SILVER WIN

RACE 9

DON’S LEGACY is drawn gate 11 of 16 but in a capacity line-up there doesn’t look to be a mountain of speed drawn underneath him and there is a big chance that Beaux Edwards actually finds the front on him. If he can cross he’s a genuine eachway proposition and comes out of a strong form race behind Nerodio. POINT TAKEN has gone to a new level in the last 6 months and she is savaging the line. Stiff to run into a mare of Ration Aly’s ability in a Graduation at her most recent. REBEL KNIGHT went around favourite in two 72+ races last preparation. Astutely placed into a 60+ and trialled well. REBEL YELL is rarely seen in this grade. Keep safe.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet – DON’S LEGACY EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

3,4,6,8,9,10
3,4
1,5,6,11
1,2,4,5,7,9

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