Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

BOSNIPP was a tough follow for punters in her first preparation. Went into hundreds of trial Blackbooks when running Cliffs of Comfort into the ground over 950 at Lark Hill in Feb. Was scratched a few times before finally making it to the races when going under at $2.50 before again being run down comfortably at $2.70 at her second outing. Went to Kalgoorlie and nothing went right at all. Returns first-up, no trial and the way Justin Warwick is going she’ll take beating. AT WAR is in a similar boat having jumped short at every start since his impressive debut second to Massimo. Gelded and drawn to get every chance from the inside alley. NORTHWOOD scratched from a winnable race Thursday to save for this. HARIASA has trialled up well for a new stable.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – BOSNIPP WIN

RACE 2

SURVEILLANCE finally gets a chance to break his maiden. Looks to have come back far more one-paced and dour and won’t get a better opportunity to win a 3 year old Saturday race than in this weak 1600. Jason Brown returns to the saddle and from the draw he should land one out and one back. If he can’t break through here then he hasn’t quite returned the same horse. FLYING AVA will go round at cricket score odds but actually ran a really nice race on debut. REGAL DIVIDEND has no weight on her back and leads them up. UNDER THE ARCHES is chasing hard and box seats from the draw.

Numbers: 1 – 9 – 6 – 8

Suggested Bet – SURVEILLANCE WIN

RACE 3

LEADING GIRL has gone under at $1.55 and $1.75 at her last two but this is simply her race to lose. She gets 5.5kg on main (only?) danger in Mrs Brown’s Boy and on the 7 day back up she should finally break through. Peaked on her run last two starts but gets into this on the minimum and in the small field she can settle last and round them up. MRS BROWN’S BOY is exceptionally well placed into a 72+ as a 78+ winner only two starts ago. He is flying and Annie King’s entire yard are on fire. Clearly the danger but likely settles second last and tows Leading Girl into the race. RED PUBLISHER is still racing at the top of his game at 9 years old. JUICING CARROTS grows a leg off 7 days.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – LEADING GIRL WIN

RACE 4

MASSIMO looks incredibly well suited in this Listed feature. Drops 4kg on his last start win, gets back to 7 furlongs and is drawn to lead. There are other speed horses in the event but most likely scenario is that Johnston-Porter takes luck out of the equation and rides him like the best horse in the race. Going from strength to strength and looks like jumping $1.50 or shorter on paper. PYM’S ROYALE will chase hard as he always does but he’ll concede a fair head-start to a highly talented front runner. HARRY THOMAS doesn’t know how to run a bad race and should box seat in behind Massimo. YEAH DARDY should enjoy a soft run and returned well without luck at 1000m.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet – MASSIMO WIN

RACE 5

BROOKLYN PIER vs FRIDAY KNIGHT vs MADAM TORIO is a very intriguing contest which is going to divide opinions. FRIDAY KNIGHT looks like a beast, BROOKLYN PIER left them for dead in second gear at the trials and MADAM TORIO is a high speed 1000m specialist. Found it nearly impossible to split them but sided with FRIDAY KNIGHT who does a lot wrong but looks to have a serious motor under the hood. If he can settle at the rear and round them up at 1000m then he’s the real deal. BROOKLYN PIER will be looking to hold the inside and on face value has come back bigger and better than last prep. MADAM TORIO will look to cross Brooklyn Pier and if she does it’s game on. JUST A PINCH next best but all focus will be on the top 3 in betting.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – FRIDAY KNIGHT WIN

RACE 6

NERODIO is charging through the grades at the rate of knots and this looks another perfect assignment for him to continue his way through. Three starts ago split Long Beach and Indian Pacific in an extremely high rating 66+. Took that form to his next outing when heavily supported and duly saluting. Dropped back to 1000m last start and they still couldn’t hold him out. Back to 1200m, maps ideally and finds another race that is his to lose. MIA DOLCE has improved tenfold when being ridden for speed again. She should get things her own way out in front and take running down. FLOWER OF SCOTLAND is a remarkable mare who continues to do everything wrong and still win. SPILLINOVA caught the eye fresh but maps awfully.

Numbers: 5 – 9 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet – NERODIO WIN

RACE 7

LACEVINSKY was deep the trip first-up when chasing This’ll Testya before being run into Optus Stadium by Excellent Dream on the corner. Did a really good job to still finish off the race and with regular rider Pat Carbery jumping back on and a map to suit he a nice little eachway investment. Very consistent type and can give a strong kick on his day. TYCOON STORM and RATION ALY are both more talented horses than him but they don’t look like getting any favours in running. TYCOON STORM was given a 12/10 last start when waltzing in and RATION ALY enjoy the run of the race when narrowly gunning down Super Teroitoa. They’ll both need luck from sticky draws in this. POINT TAKEN has gone to a new level since being ridden with cover.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 8 – 7

Suggested Bet – LACEVINSKY EACHWAY

RACE 8

CONDOR HEROES vs THIS’LL TESTYA vs LONG BEACH is equally as intriguing and exciting as the 3-year-old 1000m in race 5. CONDOR HEROES only knows one way. THIS’LL TESTYA will have to stalk him in a new racing pattern for her. LONG BEACH could be conceding them a huge head start midrace. Again opinions will be divided. THIS’LL TESTYA looked a far more relaxed and mature race horse first-up and all the post-race commentary surrounded the fact that there was a lot left in the tank. She faces another acid test here. CONDOR HEROES will jump and run and make her chase a long way out. Brilliant placement chasing a third straight 66+ win. LONG BEACH could be back in traffic while the two speed demons are in a race of their own at the 400 but he’ll flash late. SILKINIZE seems to be a seniors horse but is next best ability wise.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – THIS’LL TESTYA WIN

RACE 9

STREET FAIR races outside the handicap and has only won 1 race from 17 outings but like all good final quaddie legs this should be eachway the field. On the 7 day back-up, dropping from the staying trip back to a mile and drawn to get a soft run three back the fence. He’s the kind of horse who always needs luck in his races but Jade McNaught has a knack of getting the runs on these luckless types. INFLATION will lead them up again and in hindsight went too slow for his own good last time out. Couple that with the fact the fence was the inferior going and he’s worth forgiving. BIG SHOT PADDY ran well first-up no trial at 1400 and should only improve out to 1600. ARTIE’S JEWELS is in career best form.

Numbers: 13 – 3 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet – STREET FAIR EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,5,9
2,6,7,8
1,2,5
1,2,3,4,7,9,10,13

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