Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

FOREVER DREAMING and RULING DAME come through the same race last start. There’s a 1.5kg weight swing in favour of FOREVER DREAMING and this time around she draws inside of her main rival. They’re both yet to prove themselves at a mile but they’re capable and honest mares. Not much between them. MISS INTENTION is proven at the mile (and beyond), proven on the back-up and has really found form. FULL OF MERIT is still a maiden but will be given a soft time of it out in front.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – FOREVER DREAMING WIN

RACE 2

PACIFIC BOXER and MADAM KISSES both come through the same race behind Paddy’s Flyin’ and while there’s a big weight swing in favour of MADAM KISSES it’s hard to ignore the fact that she loses William Pike and is drawn a little sticky in barrier 5 of 7. Thinking that PACIFIC BOXER is ready to win after working hard first-up and then flashing home late second-up. Should enjoy a nice run tucked away behind the speed and should be peaking third-up. MADAM KISSES rarely runs a bad race and if she can get a spot in running she’s the obvious danger. BOLTA has speed and tries hard. AUTO SPARK has Pike and draws inside the stablemate.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet – PACIFIC BOXER WIN

RACE 3

MASAMUNE finally gets to the races after missing with an abandoned meeting and then a scratching on Wednesday to attack this 3 year old 1200 on a Saturday. His trial form has been a real money-making machine with the second horse Insyde Success and the third horse All Play both winning impressively on debut. He’s got plenty of raw ability and plenty of upside. AUSPICIOUS is the only winner in an otherwise field of maidens. She has to carry 57kg at SWP and has to see out a strong 1200m but she’s the proven commodity. ZIPAWAY has always shown ability and trialled well for his return without wearing blinkers. IDYLLIC RULER looked a nice strong type from trials.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – MASAMUNE WIN

RACE 4

CALIFORNICATION came down from the Goldfields with a big expectation on him and even though he only finished fourth thought he did enough to suggest that he would be hard to beat in this small field. His 3 year old 1400 behind Planet Cash and Sunny Honey showed he’s more than capable and in this race he should land right up over the speed and get every favour. STYLAX was luckless in the same race and it looked like he had plenty to offer if the gaps had opened earlier in the home straight. MYSTERY MOMENT can track up along the fence and does have some class about her. COSTA DEL SANTO almost caused the upset last start.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet – CALIFORNICATION WIN

RACE 5

COLOSSAL has raced in higher grade at his last five outings including winning a 66+ 1000 and finishing a narrow second in a re-handicapped 72+. This is excellent placement by Team Williams into a 60+ Graduation and their team is proven off the short let-up. Will get back but has a big turn of acceleration in his weaponry. MACK MACK looks like he has the opportunity to either lead or breeze depending on how well he jumps. He is more than capable of continuing his way through the grades and is one tough nut when allowed to roll in front. DESERT NYMPH tried hard behind Valency. Honest mare. SCENIC ECLIPSE either leads or breezes outside Mack Mack.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet – COLOSSAL WIN

RACE 6

SPLIT JETE was held up on straightening last start and then caught flat footed when the sprint went on. In this much weaker line-up he can hold up closer in the run and is given a wonderful opportunity to pinch some low hanging fruit on a Saturday. Has been a different horse since Steven Burton put the blinkers on. AMBER GLIDE comes through the same race. She just seemed to blow out late and the race certainly wasn’t run to suit her. Just needs a back to follow into the race. SKETTA won well last start at a mile and Miss Intention (already a winner) could again frank the form in Race 1. ABBOU is racing well for Mack Hall and could well amble his way to the top.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – SPLIT JETE WIN

RACE 7

VALENCY is in a rich vein of form and provided she sees a gap at some stage in the home straight she looks awfully hard to hold out. Stepping out to 1400m but drawn to get a soft run leader’s back and from there it’s up to Brayden Gaerth to push his way into the clear in the home straight and allow her to go through her gears. Progressive mare. CHANGING GUARD is drawn really awkwardly and may have to drag back considering he’s drawn outside Feuding/Success Play/Seminole Brave who all have as much tactical speed as him. Going well but the map hurts. SUCCESS PLAY gives 110%. He’s rock hard fit and on the 7 day back-up. FEUDING was only fair last start but finally draws a gate.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – VALENCY WIN

RACE 8

AZTEC RULER looks very hard to beat with 55kg in the $100,000 Tabtouch Stakes. His last two runs have been electric, including his most recent last to first win with 60kg in a race run 5L faster than 72+ average. He steps out to a mile and he steps up in grade but he’s drawn perfectly and looks like a Listed/Group horse in the making. GINGER BAKER has been a revelation this winter/early spring. This race lacks a leader and if Brad Parnham kicks through to hold the top and pinches a cheap section or two he could get away from them on straightening. JADAVI concedes 5kg and a head start to Aztec Ruler. No easy task but she’s a remarkable little mare. NEUFBOSC is going really well.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – AZTEC RULER WIN

Same Race Multi – Aztec Ruler (Top 2) + Ginger Baker (Top 3) + Jadavi (Top 4)

There looks to be three main players in the Tabtouch Stakes: Aztec Ruler, Ginger Baker and Jadavi. Aztec Ruler is making his way impressively through the grades and drops 5kg on a career best performance last start when smashing the clock to produce a figure of a future Listed/Group horse. Ginger Baker is drawn and mapped to get it cheap in front. Jadavi is a Benjamin Button style marvel of a race mare.

RACE 9

RED FIFTY THREE is back to his very best and has won three from five this time in, including beating subsequent 72+ winner and Hannans Handicap bound Magnificent Andy as well as bursting the bubble of the previously undefeated Costazita. He carries weight, he’s versatile and he’s a winner. Can’t ask for much more in a race horse. PADDY’S FLYIN’ gets out to 1200m after building an imposing sprinting record over 1000. Up in grade but down in weight and has a senior who knows him back aboard. Home in a L600 of 32.63 last start – respect. SENTIMENTAL HERO may find 1200m too sharp but he’s classy. MULTIVERSE has turned back the clock.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 9 – 7

Suggested Bet – RED FIFTY THREE WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,3,4

1

1,2,7

2,8

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