Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

KOSTA’S CROWN gives the Peter Knuckey/Sean & Jake Casey combination a great sighter into winning back to back Initial Plates after saluting with Fatale Femme in 2020. KOSTA’S CROWN like Bronte’s Dream and Pot Shot is undefeated at trials and has shown professionalism and most importantly gate speed in each outing. From the inside gate she should have sufficient toe to push through and hold the front or box seat if being crossed and from there the fence is a huge bonus to these unraced juveniles. Should be right there in the finish. BRONTE’S DREAM and POT SHOT come from a well noted and highly regarded 2 year old camp. Dion Luciani produced Bumper Humper to victory in the Initial Plate in 2019 and brings a three prong attack into this. They’re all jump and run types. DOES HE KNOW missed away in his first 400m jump out which is a concern. Dominated his 850.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet – KOSTA’S CROWN WIN

RACE 2

GINGER FLYER and CALL AGAIN can control the speed and the race from the front. Holly Watson’s 3kg claim for Ginger Flyer is a luxury and expecting the young apprentice to thrive at Ascot this season. She loves taking horses to the front, rates them well and allows them to stride into the corner and kick clear. Looks the perfect horse for her to open her Ascot card and provided she doesn’t have to absorb too much mid-race pressure she’ll be hard to run down late. Highly consistent little mare who tries her best. CALL AGAIN is in a rich vein of form. 60.5kg and possible breezing outside of Ginger Flyer is an ask but provided they don’t cut at each other mid-race they should be sneaking away together on the corner. Really allowed to run by Lisa Staples last start (first 1000m run 12L faster than average) and was entitled to fade late. BROTHER PADDY sits close handy and whacks away. ROCKNRULER can get the tow ball run.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet – GINGER FLYER WIN

RACE 3

SECRET PEARL rates particularly well for this and is well placed by trainer Ricky Moss. Her last 9 outings have been in 66+, 72+ and most recently Listed company when tramping wide throughout and only beaten 4.5L in the Boulder Cup behind Friar Fox, Living The Dream, Media Baron and Stafford’s Lad. This is a big drop in grade, she flies off 21 days, she runs for Keshaw Dhurun and if they throw the anchor middle stages can sneak into it three deep and sustain a run. Looks a nice race for her on paper. ROMAN FLIRT hasn’t shown up her last two. Her win three starts back with 59kg was highly impressive and she maps to get a perfect run in transit. Time for her to rebound. AXEL ‘R’ EIGHT has had well documented feet troubles of late and is in an awkward part of the preparation. ALIMENTARIA should enjoy an ideal run close handy to the speed.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet – SECRET PEARL EACHWAY

RACE 4

MR DELEGATOR demolished some handy rivals in a 72+ last start and now drops back into a 66+ for Opening Day at Ascot. Ideal horse for Head Quarters as he rides the speed and has a turn of foot to go with it. Perfectly suited to the short, sharp style of Ascot racing and Shaun McGruddy is the ideal rider for this sort of horse. He took a sit last start in a race with a stack of speed, this race has barely any so he probably lands in front and from there he’s the one they need to run down. AVALON BAY was a dominant first-up winner when well found in betting and last start was eye catching from an impossible position in running. Todd Harvey looks to hold a mortgage over this race. REBEL KNIGHT will appreciate not running into Kaptain Kaos or Karijini Aurora here. TEMPTACION looks ready to recapture her best fourth run in.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – MR DELEGATOR WIN

RACE 5

KAPTAIN KAOS has strung together three in a line and has won 6 of his 7 outings for Michael Grantham. His only defeat in his care has been at 1400m at Ascot on a red-hot leaders program and naturally that’s the biggest concern here. Last start at Belmont he settled last in a race where they absolutely walked (first 800m 13L slower than average) and he had to really rev the motor to get over them. Reeled off some blistering sectionals and stamped himself as a Carnival proposition. Toughest test to date but he continues to improve every time he goes to the races. KISSONALLFORCHEEKS is the winner of 6 from 12 including the Listed Sir Ernst Lee Steere and Listed Breeders Classic. Went down in the final stride with 59kg at her return and looks a massive danger here. KARIJINI AURORA is back to her best and with the 54kg is dangerous in a race without much tempo. EXCELLENT DREAM is versatile and may roll forward out to 1400m with the apprentice on.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 9 – 2

Suggested Bet – KAPTAIN KAOS WIN

RACE 6

BIG SCREEN looks a horse on the rise and the kind of animal who you can follow until he shows signs of training off. Free rolling front runner who looks the quintessential Ascot Opening Day horse. Shouldn’t have any trouble at all crossing them and finding the fence and from there if Shaun O’Donnell can pinch a cheap sectional midrace he’ll be off and gone before they know it. Looks hard to run down again. PROBITY gets weight relief as a 3 year old taking on the older horses and has shown great ability in only a handful of starts. DOWNFORCE isn’t a wet tracker and back in grade on top of the ground should be a sharp improver. BRAGWELL put the writing on the wall at trials and first-up. Ready to win and maps to get the right run.

Numbers: 8 – 14 – 2 – 9

Suggested Bet – BIG SCREEN EACHWAY

RACE 7

GRACEFUL GIRL is always going to be somewhat of a risky investment at Ascot as a get back sprinter but her ceiling is enormous and don’t think we’ve seen anywhere near the best of her yet. Her recent trial was arrogant, her victory in the Raconteur was breathtaking and she looks capable of going right through the grades. Stakes winning mare resuming in a 66+ and while she has to carry 59kg she should prove too slick and too classy for them. CHARLETON EDDIE is exceptionally well placed by the Casey team. 78+ races back into a 66+ and in with a winnable weight after the claim for Laqdar Ramoly. If he can get himself across to the breeze it’s game on. MYSTICAL VIEW will be sitting three back the fence and hoping the miracle gaps appear. If they do her turn of foot is brilliant. GLASGOW GIRL ran well fresh. Keep safe at odds.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet – GRACEFUL GIRL WIN

RACE 8

MOOD SWINGS is finding it hard to pinch one of these short course sprinting events, but he is going round at an eachway quote every single outing so he’s easy to follow up with. Thinking he can nearly cross them here with Puli more of a mustering 1200m type and This’ll Testya drawn outside of him. If he can find the fence, he’ll be giving a big kick turning for home and if he has to breeze, he’s still a fighting chance of being there at the end. Gets weight off his back and is racing well. MISS CONTEKI is 5 from 5 undefeated at the Ascot 1000 and 3 from 3 undefeated first-up. Has the runs on the board and trialled up nicely without blinkers. With clear galloping room she’ll be flashing at them late. BATTLE STORM has had his fair share of issues throughout his life in an injury plagued career. His best is super and his trial suggested he’s not too far from it. HOT ZED is a wining machine and always underrated by the market.

Numbers: 9 – 2 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – MOOD SWINGS EACHWAY

RACE 9

SPIN THE KNIFE has done nothing wrong this preparation, is drawn gate 1 to lead or box seat and only carries 3.5kg more than Arcadia Grace. With punters likely to be savagely launching the Cerise and White Luke Fernie and Paul Harvey get the chance to stay out of trouble and see just how good the untapped filly is. Beat the older horses first-up, won soft in a 3 year old Plate last start. ARCADIA GRACE opened up $3.70 with Tabtouch and at time of writing (11:30pm Wednesday) is already into $3. Undeniably talented, massive debut winner when held up until the 100m and exploding late, yet the horses she beat are all still maidens 44 days later except Tiny’n’Tuff who won at Toodyay. She’ll be heart in mouth stuff back in traffic. FLYING MISSILE won three in a line last campaign and has looked sharp at jump outs. RUTHLESS TYCOON was lucky to stay on his feet last start. Draw hurts.

Numbers: 3 – 13 – 7 – 4

Suggested Bet – SPIN THE KNIFE WIN

RACE 10

CAPTAIN KINK looks well suited in this. Last preparation won a 72+ 1000m first-up and then only two starts later ran third in a 72+ with 60kg behind Miss Conteki and River Beau. Monday’s trial was excellent, very well placed into a 66+ and with Secret Plan in the race his price should remain attractive throughout betting. Drawn inside both Cliff’s of Comfort and Sassy Trader so thinking he can nearly lead this with a clean start and from there he’s a live chance. SECRET PLAN has huge ability but has struggled to win races because he has no gate speed. Likely to be conceding them a big head start and may have some serious traffic issues to navigate. BOOMTASTIC ran well at her Pat Keating debut. SPEED DREAM is capable of going through the grades this campaign.

Numbers: 2 – 10 – 7 – 16

Suggested Bet – CAPTAIN KINK EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 7 – 10)

1,4,5
2,4,9
3,4,7,9,10,13
1,2,7,10,16

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