Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

BELLA’S IDOL is on the quick back up from a career best performance in the Bull & Bush Tavern South West Cup. His run in the Bunbury Cup was massive when charging late off the back of a ridiculous tempo in the early and middle stages before backing it up in the SW Cup when box seating on Utgard Loki and letting down impressively to score. Proven weight carrier, drawn soft and in scintillating form. MAROCCHINO looks the obvious danger on paper, dropping 5.5kg and gaining the services of W.Pike. Can roll to the top or sit over the tempo and with the pull in the weights is hard to beat. UNRELIABLE is starting to prove himself as an emerging stayer. FREEZEMOFF is building into her preparation.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – BELLA’S IDOL WIN

RACE 2

CARABINIER was a first-up winner in this grade last preparation when beating home Pink N Gray. Scratched from a winnable race on Wednesday to save for this. Ryan Hill should be poking up in behind Lord Lonsdale and Pink N Gray and from there enjoys the run of the race and gets a crack at them in the straight. Well placed and flies fresh. PINK N GRAY has a rare senior rider engagement and is always hard to knock. Super honest and consistent. LORD LONSDALE will no doubt be ridden for speed and if he is allowed to cross without doing any work will naturally be hard to reel in. PRIZED NEMESIS sit back and runs on.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – CARABINIER WIN

RACE 3

QUEENS GIFT trialled well when getting over the top of subsequent stakes winners He’s Gold and Liwa. On debut sat three deep with cover and finished off well behind highly talented and promising filly Pat’s Got Sass. Drawn to sit on the tow ball of speedy filly Sockoff and that looks a nice map for her. SOCKOFF is no slouch and Brad Parnham should have no troubles finding the front. Looks a readymade professional and importantly a jump and run 1000m type. STORY BOOK won well on debut and then was no hope from the impossible draw in the Gimcrack last weekend. Drops in class, drops in weight and on the quick back-up. SHEZACLASSYCHIX was completely chopped out on debut. Forgive and follow.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet – QUEENS GIFT WIN

RACE 4

WESTERN EMPIRE is every chance of jumping shorter than $1.20. Looking to take out a clean sweep of the lead up Colts and Geldings features on his way to the WATC Derby and Willie Pike times his return to WA perfectly. Drawn gate 1, absolutely no speed in the race, where will he land? Who will lead? Things would get interesting if he is left in front….OUTBACK JACK brings alternate form and has been kept away from Western Empire until now. Exactly same kind of preparation as stablemate Holy Enchantment who ran second to Western Empire in the JC Roberts and Outback Jack looks a lock for the minor money. FLASH DUCATI and OFF WEGO fight out the placings.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – OUTBACK JACK PLACE

RACE 5

MELARAB can roll forward from the draw to sit outside or just tucked in behind Granrandell and Float Our Boat. From there Troy Turner can enjoy a soft run with a field advantage over most main rivals who are drawn awkwardly (Beret/Miss Marietta/Eurasia). Open 1800m race and he is rock hard fit, in form and goes round eachway. KIA ORA STAR should enjoy a soft run leader’s back from the inside draw and his last start victory was arguably career best. BERET will need luck but ran out the mile strongly last start. INTERSTATE backs up, drops in trip and gets some big weight pulls off rivals from recent competitive runs.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet – MELARAB EACHWAY

RACE 6

BRAGWELL was beaten 2L in a C2 at Mt Barker at $1.50. Reads woefully, but it is not an accurate reflection of his run. Carried 61.5kg, missed away, sat three deep the trip and simply had everything possibly go wrong. In this grade at the end of last preparation he was plunged in betting and was beaten a nose by talented front runner Mr Delegator after running fifth in the WA Guineas behind Watch Me Dance, Dom To Shoot and Western Empire. No real speed in this, if he gets out and across, he’s a great eachway chance. DOWNFORCE is 35 days between runs and drawn in the middle of the line but with even luck is very well placed and suited in this race. TINSNIP won well last start and has returned in good order. NOTORIOUS ONE does a lot wrong but huge has raw ability and potential.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – BRAGWELL EACHWAY

RACE 7

AMASENUS is low flying which is really characteristic of the entire Simon Miller yard at the minute. Backs up off 7 days from a 1000m demolition job and while she steps up in grade to face her toughest opposition to date she gets in on the minimum and is being letting down like a mare who will win better races. Speed will be on with Mood Swings and Some Sort out in front and if she is within striking distance turning for home will be charging late. MOOD SWINGS is a model of consistency. Was found out at 1200m earlier in the preparation but should get across to the breeze without doing too much work. Hard to knock the way he’s going. SOME SORT was an effortless trial victor and a talented front runner resuming. ABSOLUTE is worth forgiving from last start. Couldn’t make an inch that day.

Numbers: 10 – 5 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet – AMASENUS WIN

RACE 8

PURE DEVOTION has put the writing on the wall in the lead up features. Luckless in the Ascot 1000 Guineas when getting out late and flashing home in the quickest last 200. Wound up impressively off the back of a slow tempo in the Natasha Stakes when running the fastest last 1200, 1000, 800, 600, 400 & 200. Screaming out for 2400m and looks hard to beat. TEMPTACION has burst onto the scene with back to back dominant midweek performances. Left the older horses in her dust last start in a 60+ when letting down powerfully. She looks the big danger. BRAVE ANGEL gets weight on rivals under the race conditions and is drawn ideally. RELIABLE STAR stays all day.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – PURE DEVOTION WIN

RACE 9

RIVER BEAU should drift out to an eachway quote with the expected flood of money for Miss Conteki throughout betting. Where he gets to from the gate will be determined by his barrier manners but if he settles rearward, he is capable of running a sub 33 last 600 and if he comes out running, he can carve across with Kramden to sit over the speed. Going through the grades very impressively. MISS CONTEKI will be all the rage and you can understand why. Winner of 4 from 5 and jumps odds on more often than not. Coming from a much weaker form race but she won with arrogance. Just needs gaps. HIGHLAND BEAT was super consistent in his initial WA campaign in strong races. CAPTAIN KINK can bounce back.

Numbers: 6 – 11 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet – RIVER BEAU EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,3,4,5,10

1,5,9,10

3,4

1,4,5,6,7,11

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