Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

PLAY FAIR was heavily commissioned in betting last start at Pinjarra and once he got clear he was far too good for his C1 rivals. These 50+ handicaps are just as weak and being drawn wide suits him, because he’ll get back regardless of where he’s drawn. Looks to be finally figuring it all out. HIS EMINENCE has snuck back into a 50+ nicely and is finally out to his preferred distance range. DESERT EDGE was no match for Play Fair last start and doubt he is again. INTERVENTION improves with cover.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet – PLAY FAIR WIN

RACE 2

ESSENTRIC NATURE made a real impression at his WA debut. Don’t think he ran past much in terms of opposition that day but it was more about the way he worked through his gears under CJP and the fact he was only hitting top speed (under no riding) in the final 100. He’ll get back and that’s always a dangerous betting proposition at Ascot but he does look sharp. HIT THE JACKPOT was a win that few will forget. Exploded clear and rolled right back towards the inside fence down the straight. ZOUBOLTZ has returned in good order. SOSO LUCKY is better than she produced fresh.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 11 – 7

Suggested Bet – ESSENTRIC NATURE WIN

RACE 3

THIS’LL SHOW YA is no star, but boy does she try hard. She’s only a pint-sized mare so maybe the biggest concern for her is carrying 58kg (winning weights 54, 55 & 56) but it’s hard to ignore how well she went last weekend over 1100m and the fact her maiden win was on the back-up. Jump, run, desperately hold on late. FANZ is racing in career best form and has found a winnable race. SALT LAKE SHAKE was a touch disappointing fresh. SEEYOUATTHESESSION was right behind him on the line.

Numbers: 6 – 9 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – THIS’LL SHOW YA WIN

RACE 4

STORM AWAY was a super trial. It was only 600m and it was down the Pinjarra Straight so yes, it could be a little risky following that through to race day, however, he was only getting stronger the deeper they went into that trial and he is in the nominations for next weekend’s Pinjarra Magic Millions – so he needs to come out and earn a decent cheque if they’re even remotely considering that as an option. JUST WALTER JOHN ran well on debut and improves for the outing. MONTE TREMEZZO was a soft trial. RECONNAISSANCE looks capable.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 9 – 4

Suggested Bet – STORM AWAY WIN

RACE 5

MEMORY PARADE was simply looking for the 1400m and when she got out to that distance last start she got the job done. She ran fourth in a Challenge Stakes as a filly behind Russian To The Bar (now m87), Investment Strategy (now m85), A Lot Of Good Men (now m94) and ahead of Royal Toronado (now m78) and Buckets Ridge (now m93) which just gives you confidence she’ll continue to work through her grades. SOLDANELLE is flying now that they’ve figured her out. BRAZEN BID is racing like 1400m will suit. OUR MATE ARCHIE is progressive.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – MEMORY PARADE WIN

RACE 6

STYLISH LORD has found a nice race. Happy to follow the Memory Parade / Our Mate Archie form from the 60+ Graduation through to this Westspeed Platinum and think from the draw that Brayden Gaerth should be nearly somewhere near 1×2 and from there he takes beating. CRUISE TO VICTORY trialled super and pulled up with a genuine excuse first-up. RED TORI has had a frustrating preparation. She’s going well enough to win a Westspeed but she’s going to need everything to go her way from the tricky draw. SUCCESS PLAY was able to scare El Patron out of victory last start. This race has more depth.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 7 – 4

Suggested Bet – STYLISH LORD EACHWAY

RACE 7

ICE PICK NICK was a ‘be on me next start’ run fresh. He’s a really honest customer (finished in the money at 64% of his career outings), he’s a versatile horse, he’s a proven weight carrier and from the barrier Steve Parnham has options. He could lead, he could sit, regardless – pretty keen to be on him. MISS FLIRTACIOUS was career best last start. She burst through a narrowing gap and showed she’s not a one trick pony. SONOFTHEBOSS backs up and has a senior on. LONSDALEITE would prefer barrier 7 to barrier 1.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – ICE PICK NICK WIN

RACE 8

MAN CRUSH was sectionally enormous last start. He ran the fastest L1000, 800, 600, 400 & 200 after uncharacteristically missing away and given the natural 2kg weight swing he gets on Twain’s Angel he looks a big threat on paper. Small field, tactical affair, could definitely work in his favour. TWAIN’S ANGEL scored her first Black Type success in the Scenic Blast Stakes off the back of a highlights reel ride from Madi Derrick. She’s drawn barrier 1 in three consecutive features (1 in 1170 for those wondering) and with even luck she’ll be very hard to hold out. NORICH is a flying machine. SNOWDOME was much better last start.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – MAN CRUSH WIN

Same Race Multi – Man Crush (Top 3) + Twain’s Angel (Top 2) + Norich (Top 4)

Going to play three legs in the Cyril Flower Stakes Same Race Multi to try and squeeze a bit more out of the potential collect. Man Crush was enormous last start after making a mess of the jump. Twain’s Angel got a deserved Listed win on the board after Madi Derrick gave her a perfect steer. They’re the obvious two again. Norich should bounce straight on the top and lead for a long way.

RACE 9

SUNLIT FRESCO was held back to the field last start and think that made her vulnerable. From what we’ve seen in her career to date she’s best suited when allowed to stride and expecting that Brad Parnham will look to let the mare run. PLAYING GAMES was ducking and weaving a passage through traffic last week and flashed home into third behind Just Saint James. It was eye-catching and 7 days later she’s found another suitable assignment. COMIC HERO leaves himself a lot to do late in his races. RAPID ROCK deserves to win one.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet – SUNLIT FRESCO WIN

RACE 10

TOO SOON made an impression at his WA debut and looks the kind of horse that you can follow from now until WATC Derby Day. This is a nice test for him but think he’ll measure up. DEEL HER IN was a dominant winner on debut when backed from $12 into $4.40 and then ran a luckless fifth as beaten favourite second-up. The form from her maiden was well and truly franked by the winner (Rock ’N’ The Jam). Drawn much better and looks hard to beat. ALL GRUNT was super at his return and the form out of that race is elite. TIMELESS GEM is ready.

Numbers: 6 – 11 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet – TOO SOON EACHWAY

RACE 11 

ROCK ‘N’ THE JAM looks a nice horse and this is excellent placement by Rusty Stewart. The 3 year old 1400 (Race 10) is really deep, contains 6/7 legitimate winning chances and he would have carried 59.5kg. This 60+ Graduation is thin, contains few wining chances and he carries 56kg. Well played. GREAT DEMON is building towards another win. EL PATRON is going super but is undeniably camera shy. NO PEER is a mare in form.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet – ROCK ‘N’ THE JAM WIN

RACE 12

CITINO looks like he’s nearly ready to win one this prep. 4 weeks between runs, 1800m back to 1600m, has competitive form lines through most of the fancies and goes around eachway in a race where there’s probably only 1-1.5L between them. BRUCE ALMIGHTY is seriously tough but 60.5kg at the end of 1600m after absorbing a bit of pressure could be right on his limit. GINGER GREEN was given a 12/10 by Jarrad Noske last start. Took a very handy horse in Sensessional to grab him on the post after a tactically brilliant ride. THE SPRUIKER is going well, but barrier 1 could be tricky.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet – CITINO EACHWAY

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