Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on March 30, 2023March 30, 2023 | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

SUPERSESSION had absolutely no luck last start. He was caught up in a difficult position in running and never got a crack at them at any stage in the home straight. He gets 2kg weight swing on Leniency having finished only 1.5L off him without getting the chance to make a run at them. He went to the line completely untested and we forgive, forget and follow up. Expect him to be ridden cold and saved up for one last sprint at them. LENIENCY comes back to 1000m second-up. Not an ideal set up and with 59kg he may be vulnerable late. Still hard to knock a winning machine. Plenty more in store for him. RUMOUR SAYS was a quiet trial and her best is clearly good enough. Should have gone close in the 3 year old Classic behind Snowdome. POT SHOT next best.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – SUPERSESSION WIN

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RACE 2

MANTELLI is likely to sit on the third line of betting behind Senorita Dorotea and Marmooga. His form suggests he’s deserving of favouritism, his Days Since Last Win statistic however justifies his likely market positioning. Hard to bet with confidence on a horse who knows how to get beaten, but running second to Metallon, second to Tadweer, second to Thomas Magnum and third to Supersession is about as good as form gets for a 60+ Graduation. Would love to see him break through and pinch one. SENORITA DOROTEA has either settled rearwards or in the breeze this preparation. If they split the difference and she can end up one out and one back she’s a big threat. MARMOOGA jumps up considerably in grade but carries no weight. EX SPORT GIRL is a nice filly. Just not sure whether back to 1000 is in her favour.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet – MANTELLI WIN

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RACE 3

CALL AGAIN was run down in the shadows of the post last week by Rusty Spirit. 7 days later he drops 1.5kg in weight after the claim for noted front running apprentice Holly Watson. He looks like kicking through to lead and with the shades coming off Forever Dreaming he may get things his own way out in front. There’s an Easterly forecast for the entirety of the meeting so he should get every opportunity to lead and win. FOREVER DREAMING has run three honest races since returning. She’s giving 110% and she’ll be in the finish again. AWESOME RIVAL is continually running the best closing sections. She’s just leaving herself too much to do late in her races. BLAZING TYCOON has hit a purple patch of form.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet – CALL AGAIN WIN

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RACE 4

MOUNTAIN ASH has won two of his last three and is proving a difficult horse to get past. Luke Campbell rode him to perfection two starts ago when he was able to shake off Birdieagle on straightening and record a 2.2L victory this track and distance. He’ll bounce straight on the lead again here and see no reason why he won’t be rolling into the home straight and out grinding them over the concluding stages. BIRDIEAGLE parked to his outside in that meeting on 25 February and conceded Mountain Ash 6.5kg. This time around he concedes him 5kg. Should bring them closer together. GHOBELLA ran well without luck at her return to racing. Improves into her preparations quickly. CISCOJOE didn’t seem to run out the 1800 last start.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet – MOUNTAIN ASH WIN

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RACE 5 

TOP OF THE POPS looked uncomfortable throughout over 1000m at his return to racing. Willing to suggest that he was simply run off his legs and was unable to find his feet and balance at any stage in running. The extra 200m is very much in his favour, the more suitable barrier draw means Chris Parnham can have him positioned wherever he wants him and expect him to be a significant improver second-up. At his best he takes care of these. Learn a lot about him on Saturday. DREAM TO ME attacks this 6 weeks between runs after digging deep to run down Sockoff on a heavily leader bias track at Pinjarra on Magic Millions Day. Classy mare. THOMAS MAGNUM steps out to 1200m, rises in weight and has an awkward gate to contend with. FAMOUS JURNEY needs to prove himself at Ascot.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet – TOP OF THE POPS WIN

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RACE 6

SNOW PRINCE won well on debut from the breeze and then went to another level in the Pinjarra Magic Millions when matching motors with Super Smink down the home straight. Went down fighting and now 6 weeks later he attacks the Perth Stakes fresh. From the draw Jordan Turner can have him position right up over the speed and from there he should run a big race. RIPCORD is hard to line up. Brilliant 400m jump out in slick time. But that’s all we’ve seen of him publicly. Big market watch. ALOTOFBANTER is likely to kick through along the inside and take it up. Conditions should suit those on speed and Simon Miller’s smorgasbord of juveniles are flying. HOME JAMES is one tough cookie. Even if he gets planted deep he’s shown he’s capable of enduring a tough run and still finishing off.

Numbers: 1 – 10 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet – SNOW PRINCE WIN

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RACE 7

SUPER SMINK was highly impressive on debut from an impossible position when savaging the line behind talented colt A Lot Of Good Men. She then came out and won the Pinjarra Magic Millions with a barnstorming run and announced herself as a genuine Karrakatta Plate contender. She’s 6 weeks between runs but she should enjoy a more economical run than Live To Tell and will go around eachway in betting. LIVE TO TELL is clearly the one they all have to beat but the barrier draw makes things interesting. She’ll likely park three deep with cover and as she showed in the Supremacy Stakes she’s more than capable of sitting back and zapping them late. She’s the real deal. KRYSANOVA is very quick. Just a question on whether she’ll be tip toeing late at 1100m. AUGMENT looks professional. She can accelerate off a standing start and not many horses can do that.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 6 – 9

Suggested Bet – SUPER SMINK EACHWAY

Same Race Multi – Live To Tell (Top 2) + Super Smink (Top 3)

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RACE 8

AMELIA’S JEWEL is a star but if she’s going to be vulnerable it’s likely to be first-up at 1100m. If she comes out and wins the Roma Cup and then they apply blinkers in the Quokka it will be very exciting times for Tabtouch and the State of Western Australia. Loved her trial over 950m and the way this race profiles (Acromantula and Revitup rolling) it should suit a filly like her to park midfield and charge at them late. RED CAN MAN is suited at WFA, drawn to get the run he needs and doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Honest as they come. COMFORT ME looks like he’s tuned up for this. Quality horse on his day. RESORTMAN goes well fresh, gets a smother midfield and showed last campaign he’s a Carnival horse.

Numbers: 13 – 3 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – AMELIA’S JEWEL WIN

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RACE 9

ROMANCING THE ROCK is a work in progress but if he can get across underneath Mack Mack and work his way forward into a commanding position behind the speed this looks a winnable race for him. Over-raced badly last start and got into a bumping dual with subsequent winner Magnificent Andy in the early stages of the race before finishing sixth. Paul Harvey looks the ideal rider for a horse like him. MACK MACK found the front at Pinjarra last Sunday and held them off safely in the run to the line. He’s still getting better with racing. CATCH THESE HANDS is a nice 3 year old in the making. He can hold a spot in running from the draw and has a turn of foot. GREAT FORTUNE was a solid return to racing.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet – ROMANCING THE ROCK WIN

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Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,3,10

1,2,6,9

2,3,4,13

1,6,7

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