Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

KHUTOS looks a nice 2 year old. His trials have been impressive, he jumps cleanly, he travels and he finishes off. From the outside gate CJP may have to use him up early but on a day where there’s a 20km Easterly Breeze forecast you simply must be up on the pace. If he gets across without getting caught deep he looks the one to beat on debut. THERE WAS A TIME went back on debut from a wide gate. Now she has an inside gate and blinkers. Be shocked if she wasn’t ridden for speed early. Keep safe. BONNY ROCK ran well on debut behind Odinaka and enjoys a very similar run. Takes big benefit from race experience. STATE OF FURY trialled well alongside Khutos.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 5 – 11

Suggested Bet – KHUTOS WIN

RACE 2

MOUNTAIN ASH attempted to buck in the early stages before rolling to the top and breaking the field open. Was found wanting late and was beaten 3L but it was a solid effort all things considered. Carries the same weight back into a Westspeed Platinum and strikes what could be a leader’s paradise. Given the Stewards Report comments we can expect him to lead and roll again and from there he takes running down with conditions to suit. BIRDIEAGLE hasn’t been seen for 28 days after being backed from $7 into $3 when unable to get a crack at them the entire home straight. A free rolling leader suits a horse like him. SATURN BLACK is racing well and finally draws a more favourable gate. AWESOME CHATTER returned to the winner’s circle at Geraldton. Didn’t beat much but gets a much needed confidence boost.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 9 – 2

Suggested Bet – MOUNTAIN ASH WIN

RACE 3

BURNYA TO SURVIVE has had 2 months away from the races as they worked through a persistent hoof abscess. He’s a get back sprinter, drawn barrier 1 in a race with a lot of speed on a day where it’s likely going to be hard to make ground. Given he’ll go around a popular favourite he’s a risky betting proposition but he’s an easy on top selection. Excited to see him back at the races, he’s got Black Type written all over him. TADWEER can park on the leaders and holds a tactical advantage over Burnya To Survive. Will need to hit the front at the perfect time to hold him out. WARM ‘N’ FUZZY went straight past them last start but was left a sitting duck for Creator. Going well. ACROMANTULA has proven in his last two starts he runs 6 furlongs.

Numbers: 5 – 8 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – BURNYA TO SURVIVE WIN

RACE 4

MACK MACK is a lightly raced 3 year old who looks to have some upside. Only the winner of a Kalgoorlie maiden and a Kalgoorlie C2 but it was hard to miss his trial behind talented on speed sprinter Trevern and drawn inside of Guard The Safe and Call Again he should be able to roll forward into a prominent position over the speed. Comes from one of the most under-rated stables in the State: last 180 days, 68 runners, 17 winners at 25% strike rate and 37% POT. Nice eachway bet. FLOWER IN THE WIND was the replay horse of the meeting (month) at her return. Stopped in her tracks on multiple occasions in a messy and ugly race with 59kg. She’s clearly come back well. GUARD THE SAFE broke through last start with a tough win. RULELEE is racing consistently and sneaks back into a 60+ Graduation.

Numbers: 12 – 6 – 7 – 8

Suggested Bet – MACK MACK EACHWAY

RACE 5

CASINO SEVENTEEN is a wonderful opportunity for Taj Dyson to punch home another Saturday winner. Last start the horse beat home rivals Reliable Star, Bold Success, Blazing Away, Piccola Signora and Olden. From the draw he can park midfield with cover and he travels into his races strongly. If he pops out three deep from the 800 it’ll take a big effort to hold him out the way he’s going. BOLD SUCCESS got caught up in an awkward spot last start. Imagine they’ll roll forward to the breeze here which is where he does his best work. BLAZING AWAY has been building and now Paul Harvey jumps on. Can settle closer from the draw. RELIABLE STAR got shuffled back behind tiring horses last start. Forgive.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – CASINO SEVENTEEN WIN

RACE 6

ALL THE KING’S MEN was disappointing in the Challenge Stakes when racing flat. It was turned into a sit and sprint affair by Feels Playful and Admiration Express who settled first and second in running and ran first and second respectively. The big thing that jumps off the page in this event is that there is simply zero speed. All The King’s Men was beaten a head in the Lee Steere from the breeze. No surprise to see him settle closer and take luck out of the equation. GAGE ROADS was not pretty viewing last start when crunched in betting. Taking him solely off his run in the Breeders Classic. PLANET CASH was horribly unlucky in the Breeders and won well against the older horses last start. FLY AWAY HOME put the writing on the wall in that same race.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet – ALL THE KING’S MEN WIN

RACE 7

ADMIRATION EXPRESS is looking to turn the tables on Feels Playful. With an extra half kilo, an extra 300m and a better barrier it looks a wonderful opportunity for her to notch her second Black Type victory after taking out the Group 3 Champion Fillies. Her trials were outstanding, her return to racing was excellent and she looks the one to beat. FEELS PLAYFUL can again work her way to the top and if Holly Watson can get a mid-race breather she’ll kick hard into the corner. Takes running down, tough as they come. MEGAMI brings real X-Factor. She’ll allow the race to unfold and then work through her gears from the 600. FINE TOUCH is progressive and looks like she’ll eat up the ground.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – ADMIRATION EXPRESS WIN

Same Race Multi – Admiration Express (Top 2) + Feels Playful (Top 3)

RACE 8 

MAROCCHINO is a lock at Set Weights and Penalties. The key form race is the AJ Scahill (26/11/2022) where he beat True Attraction, Utgard Loki, Black Shadow, Neufbosc, and Come Right Back. From that race he meets them at considerably better weights: True Attraction (2.5kg better), Utgard Loki (4kg better), Black Shadow (4kg better), Neufbosc (2kg better) and Come Right Back (3kg better). It’s hard to see any of those turning the tables on him from a weights and measures perspective so then logically the dangers may be the newcomers. CORN COB is one of those, he’s a little winning machine and seems to be thriving on racing. He’ll settle over the speed and gives a decent kick. NO APOLOGY is another, he has been building towards the 1800 with two sound efforts at 84+ grade. BRUCE ALMIGHTY ran his best race in a long time in the Ascot Mile.

Numbers: 1 – 10 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet – MAROCCHINO WIN

RACE 9

CAPITAL FLIGHT was a late scratching last Saturday at Pinjarra when hitting his head in the barriers pre-race. 7 days later Coreen Maynard finds an ideal race for him, a 66+ 1000 where he carries 57kg after the claim of Luke Campbell. He can hold a position from the favourable alley, he has a turn of acceleration and he runs for the apprentices. Great set up for him. MOI CHOUX is as honest and consistent as they come. Went down fighting last week behind Beads and is drawn to get a nice run midfield. GO FORWARD trialled super and can burst through late in the race. CLASSIC MAGNUS is in a purple patch of form and beat home subsequent winner Tadweer last start.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – CAPITAL FLIGHT WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,3,6

1,2,3

1,5,10

1,2,3

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