Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1  

SOARING SOLO won impressively on debut. She has to carry the extra 2.5kg penalty for winning the Crystal Slipper but she’s drawn to get a gun run either kicking through to lead or parked right behind the speed. Jordan Turner has ridden 3 of the 4 juvenile winners so far this season and see no reason why he won’t go close to making that 4 from 5. GENEROSITY comes from a powerful 2 year old yard and whilst only having one 400m jump out did look sharp. HOME JAMES was an enormous run in the same race as Soaring Solo, but from the draw it’s hard to see how he gets anything go his way? SUGARWOOD has a poor gate but she’s looked good at trials. 

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 2 – 10  

Suggested Bet – SOARING SOLO WIN

RACE 2  

STREET PARADE gains the services of the World’s Number 1 jockey in James McDonald and maps to either kick cross and lead, or park up outside of Hang Glider. Either way he’ll hold a tactical advantage over main rivals Aztec Ruler and Saloon Bar in the run and from there he looks hard to run down on paper. May have been a blessing in disguise that he missed the Placid Ark. Really winnable race this. AZTEC RULER went to the paddock undefeated as a 2 year old and showed huge promise and potential. After an interrupted preparation and a few minor set backs he resumes. Most recent trial left a bit to be desired. SALOON BAR has always had a big following and while 1000m is likely to be on the shorter side for him he’s got a big turn of foot. GODDESS OF GIVING has raw ability.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 6 – 8  

Suggested Bet – STREET PARADE WIN

RACE 3  

TRULY INSPIRED looks set to continue on his way towards a potential Perth Cup tilt. He looks like he is getting better and better with racing and he’s the kind of stayer who will plod along for the first 1500m and then work through his gears. Covered a very similar field in a matter of strides last start and he’ll be one of the most popular horses on the Northerly Stakes Day Program at Ascot. FEELS DANISH may not be able to go with Truly Inspired if he gets a clear passage to wind-up into the race, however, from a places perspective she looks attractive. Third-up into the campaign and has versatility which could see her roll forward to park up over the top of the speed. Underrated mare who can give this a shake at odds. QUEEN ALINA is a progressive mare making her way through the grades. CONSTANT DREAMING looks just about right.

Numbers: 5 – 9 – 10 – 6   

Suggested Bet – TRULY INSPIRED WIN

RACE 4

KNOT SECRET can sit handier with a clean get away and park just off obvious leader and rolling front runner Castillo Del Lago. As we’re seeing time and time again with races that Castillo Del Lago contests the winners are coming from just off him and Knot Secret looks that kind of horse. No luck at his return when caught in traffic for the majority. Eachway from the draw. CATEGORY THREE is bursting to win a race. Pulled late ground off Street Parade fresh and with another stride guns down Real Danger. 1400m looks very suitable and she’ll be hard to hold out with clear air. CASTILLO DEL LAGO rolls along and pinches one eventually. TRADE WAR seems to find bad luck if it’s there to be found. Deserves to win one.

Numbers: 3 – 9 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet – KNOT SECRET EACHWAY

RACE 5

REAL DANGER looks to have a great map in her favour. Main danger Karalee Rocks will be sitting at the rear of the field and Real Danger can lead this or park-up outside of Speedy Miss. She’ll hold a big advantage in the run and you’ll get eachway about an in form mare with W.Pike aboard. Plenty to like with her coming back to 1200m. KARALEE ROCKS is a little ripper. She’s got a massive turn of foot and provided she keeps Real Danger within 4-5L on straightening she’ll be very hard to hold out late. Always going to be vulnerable to conditions but she’s classy. NOBEL LAURENCE is a capable type. His best form is the best in this race. COLOSSAL was better than it reads on paper last start. 

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – REAL DANGER EACHWAY

RACE 6  

TRI FOR US looks the map horse in the race. She should only be a pair or two off what looks a moderate tempo on paper (Special View leading and then either Ground Braker or potentially Zephyra parking up in the breeze). Comes back from a 72+ into a 66+, excellent use of the claim and knocking on the door for another victory. Easy eachway investment. SPECIAL VIEW gets his best chance since joining Brian Kersley’s yard. Looks to get things cheap in front. ZEPHYRA is drawn awkwardly. She did win two races breezing at Belmont Park. Interesting to see whether they use her tactical speed from a sticky alley. GROUND BRAKER is going far better than it reads on paper.

Numbers: 2 – 9 – 13 – 12

Suggested Bet – TRI FOR US EACHWAY  

RACE 7 

SENTIMENTAL QUEEN looks another eachway bet to nothing. She’s drawn barrier 1 (3x winner from the inside), she runs for Lucy Warwick (4 time winner), she flies fresh (top two on 4 occasions from 5 attempts) and she’s going to enjoy a gun run tracking up behind Express Time and Pat’s Got Sass. Loved her trial behind Bitofmerit and River Beau and first-up last preparation in a 72+ 1400 finished second to Billy Ain’t Silly. Relatively well suited at SWP. Ticks a lot of boxes. VANE TEMPEST has raced without luck for almost her entire career. Finally draws a gate and similarly to Sentimental Queen can enjoy a stalking run. PAT’S GOT SASS can park over the speed and likely grinds down Express Time at 1400. GINGER FLYER is best suited at the weights but her trials (even without shades) were only fair.  

Numbers: 4 – 6 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – SENTIMENTAL QUEEN EACHWAY

RACE 8

AMELIA’S JEWEL vs CASCADIAN is a mouth-watering clash. At WFA she gets 9kg on him and from the inside gate she can enjoy a soft run close-handy without spending a penny in the run, however, quite simply, she still needs to elevate to his level. He’s the benchmark, a 2x Group 1 winner, a 4x WFA winner and an in form beast with the world’s best on his back. No mean feat but if she’s ever going to beat him it’s on Saturday with 50kg. Can’t wait to see how she measures up. CASCADIAN deserves to be favourite. He’s proven, he’s fool proof and he’ll be winding up into the race in clear air. If she doesn’t turn up or doesn’t get the rub of the green, he could put a gap on them. TREASURED STAR ran the fastest L200 of the Railway when stopped in her tracks on multiple occasions in the home straight. Great barrier for her. BUSTLER was only half a length off Amelia’s Jewel in the WA Guineas. He’s a trier and Stevie Parnham is gunning for his fifth Kingston Town/Northerly Stakes.

Numbers: 16 – 1 – 14 – 15

Suggested Bet – AMELIA’S JEWEL WIN

Same Race Multi – Cascadian (Top 2) + Amelia’s Jewel (Top 4)

RACE 9

BURNYA TO SURVIVE simply didn’t come up over winter at Belmont Park. Was the first time in his life that he had seen a wet track and he was spinning the wheels. His recent trials were much more like his old self and with W.Pike and blinkers added to his weaponry he looks hard to hold out late. Big book for the Wizard and this is another live hope in a winnable race. CASH AWAY takes on 1200m for the first time. Has plenty of upside. WEAPONSON didn’t have much room to move at his Danny Morton debut and looked to have plenty to offer late. FLYING MISSILE is as honest and consistent as they come.

Numbers: 10 – 8 – 12 – 2

Suggested Bet – BURNYA TO SURVIVE WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,3,4,8,9,12,13

1,3,4,6

1,14,15,16

8,10,12

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