Races

Scott Embry’s Monday York Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1 

STORMY TAWNY was scratched from a 1000m maiden down the straight at Pinjarra on Thursday to save for this maiden handicap on Monday. She’s the full sister to Misty Metal and Metallon and she’s trailed up well on multiple occasions. Doubt Jason Brown has ever punched “York” into the GPS in his Merc before and expect he’s heading out to the Avon for a winner not a scenic drive. TAHITIAN PEARL went around 100-1 first-up and finished second to Supersession after tramping wide throughout and doing it tough. Supersession has now won a 60+ Graduation against the older horses and races Saturday at Ascot. If she can reproduce, she’ll go very close. FIRST CONTACT can show speed which is important at York. BEEN WITH GOD next best.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet – STORMY TAWNY WIN

RACE 2

TINY SANTINI is the kind of galloper these maiden handicaps were designed for. 5 year old maiden who gets down in the weights in a bigger spread. Runs behind Cerrdwyn, Spirit Man, Divine Inanna, La Dette, Too Dardy, Sizzle Me Patrick all read up well. Handled racing well enough at Narrogin and finds a weak maiden at York. Keep safe. DARK LOOKS comes back to 1200m but draws soft and has a level of ability. TALKING HEADS chased hard at Mt Barker when only beaten narrowly. SORAIS showed speed on debut on a Soft7 and faded out late. Didn’t mind the first trial behind Amber Glide this preparation.

Numbers: 11 – 7 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet – TINY SANTINI EACHWAY

RACE 3

JUAN WON ONE was $61 into $26 at stages in his return to racing in a 3 year old 0MWLY behind One Cool Gal. This is a lot weaker and while he hasn’t shown anything spectacular at his two runs to date, he has been well supported in betting at both. No stars in this, going to speculate on the weight of support he’s had. LIVESTREAM raced like she was looking for further at her debut and gets exactly that here. Carries the same weight in a maiden handicap after the claim of Brayden Gaerth. TANTA BELLEZZA comes through the same race behind Diamond Rocks. CHANGING GUARD has shown glimpses here and there.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 12 – 7

Suggested Bet – JUAN WON ONE WIN

RACE 4

MISSALFIE looks the one to beat in the 2023 Rose Of York. She trialled super at Lark Hill over 1100m and she’s a track specialist with three wins at this unique surface. 1500m is on the shorter side for her but she’s only 77 days between runs and coming back from the 1900s. Looks a great race for her on paper. MIETTE STAR similarly is two from two at York, and both of those wins were over the 1500m. New trainer Aaron Pateman has found a nice race for her and you’d think she’ll be a handy Broome mare. SEA WAIF would be able to give cheek if she can hold up. CELEBRITY WITNESS is racing below her best.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet – MISSALFIE WIN

RACE 5

BOLD STREET won on debut at York over 1200m. He resumes here first-up, no trial and shouled in his narrow defeat to Edmond in a C2 at Geraldton that he’ll be pinching races here and there if placed right. This is an excellent choice of first-up assignment for him and the fact Luke Campbell claims 2kg is a luxury. TO RISE AGAIN hasn’t won a race in 1395 days and lumps 62.5kg here but he finds himself in a c46+. Unbelievable drop in grade for a horse who has raced in m54+, m58+ and m60+ for years. Would love to see him break through and win another one. SOOTIE BOY can put in a run from time to time. DARK CITY next best.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – BOLD STREET WIN

RACE 6

RUSSIAN SNIPER was popular at Geraldton but most of them never got into the race behind a free rolling leader in Pop The Moet. His trial behind Pompey was solid and his first-up win at Geraldton in a maiden was soft. He looks the horse in the race with the most upside as a lightly raced 3 year old. ROGUES POINT has had two starts for Anthony Barton. Second to Rocapozzene (winner of another race since and goes round favourite in the last at Albany on Friday) and a C1 win at Belmont (Justamiddy went close out of that race since). ELITE TIME had run two good races in the Great Southern before tramping deep last start at Ascot. HEARTLY goes lengths better at York/Narrogin than anywhere else.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet – RUSSIAN SNIPER WIN

RACE 7

TRUEVINSKY was enormous last start. Was over a month between runs at 1800m, sat three deep throughout and the race was run 10.5L faster than average. Given the early money that came for Tizzle Top on Wednesday at Ascot out of that event he looks like a shop early kind of galloper. Hard to run down. IMA SLY FOX has put in three solid enough runs this preparation. Only 4.5L off Queen Of Jerusalem first-up, only 4L off Ciscojoe and subsequent winner Mountain Ash second-up and then only 4.5L off winning machine Starchienne. This is very winnable for him. PASARAN is going better than numerical form suggests. Troy Turner can put him into the race from his wide draw down the back straight. O’SO TEMPTING next best.

Numbers: 3 – 7 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet – TRUEVINSKY WIN

RACE 8

KING’S WENCH hasn’t quite been able to go on with it after her impressive maiden win over Renato. Since then she’s gone under at Belmont behind Solid Gold, at Geraldton behind Jeanella and then went to Pinjarra where she was only 5.5L off Supersession and Prawns Eleven. Going to follow up with her here. She’s got ability and this is pretty weak. THE ANVIL is a track specialist with 3 wins at York. That’s worth lengths in itself. HIGHFRIAR won a C5 at Northam and a 52+ at Narrogin in October and December. Measures up for this. ANNA’S BOY may be looking for further but can sprint well fresh.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – KING’S WENCH WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

2,6

2,3,5

3,7,8

1,2,6

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