Races

Runner by Runner: Northerly Stakes

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

1. Western Empire (59kg) 

Trainer: Grant & Alana Williams
Jockey: Billy Egan
Barrier: 6 

Had history completely against him in the Railway Stakes when looking to become the first horse in over a decade to win with more than 54kg and ultimately it was the weight pull that stablemate Watch Me Rock had over him that was the difference. He has 10 trophies already in the cabinet (Lex Piper Stakes, JC Roberts Stakes, Melvista Stakes, WATC Derby, Asian Beau Stakes, Railway Stakes, Northam Stakes, Belmont Sprint, Gold Rush & Hyperion Stakes and off that Railway run you’d be brave to suggest that he’s not a live chance of adding a Northerly Stakes (or even a Gold Rush next weekend) into the mix. He meets Watch Me Rock 4kg better going to WFA and on that along has to start the short of the Grant & Alana Williams pair in betting. He is flying and the gate is perfect.

2. Osipenko (59kg) 

Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Fred Kersley
Barrier: 17

Would be melting on Monday as a NSW horse who clearly prefers the wet conditions having won the Little Dance on a Soft7 as well as the January Cup on a Soft7 and the Packer Plate on a Heavy8, in fact his career record on Good tracks is 22:1-2-2 and his record on any type of Soft/Heavy is 13:4-1-1, so conditions wise – Perth in December is not his go. All things considered did a good job in the Railway Stakes when parking wide for the majority of the race and fighting on into a midfield position, in seventh beaten 3.2L, however, as is the case for many of them he’ll concede 3kg to Western Empire and only meets Watch Me Rock and Sentimental Hero 1kg better at the weights heading into WFA. Makes it difficult to suggest that he’s capable of turning the tables on them? 

3. Watch Me Rock (59kg)

Trainer: Grant & Alana Williams
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Barrier: 16

Profiled like the Railway Stakes winner and didn’t let his supporters down with a soft and emphatic win. After drawing barrier 4 he mapped to settle 1×1, he landed 1×1 and from the 1200m marker there was only one horse you wanted to be on in running. It was an easy ride, it was an easy win and it was an easy watch, but now he has to rise 5kg from 54 to 59 into his first WFA race and he loses William Pike who understandably sides up with the WA Guineas winner. Grant & Alana Williams’ Railway winners have historically always gone well in the Northerly: Inspirational Girl (2nd), Western Empire (2nd), Regal Power (6th), Galaxy Star (3rd) and Elite Belle (3rd) so fully expect Watch Me Rock to do the same, and that’s the reason they’ve pulled out the big guns and called on Nash Rawiller to come across. Barrier hurts.

4. Apulia (59kg) 

Trainer: Ben, Will, JD Hayes
Jockey: Michael Dee
Barrier: 14

Had a near 12 month spell after finishing third in the Cup Day Plate at Flemington in 2024 and resumed off the back of three trials in the Vobis Gold Star at The Valley on 24 October when winning the 94+ 1500m undercard on Moonee Valley Gold Cup night. Second-up he went to Flemington and took out the Listed Chester Manifold Stakes on Oaks Day beating Detonator Jack and Poison Chalice. He will attack the Northerly Stakes third-up off a 4.5 week freshen, with a 1000m Belmont trial in between, and has no troubles with the distance having won a Group Two Drummond Gold Vase at The Valley over 2040m and finishing second over 2500m in a Victoria Derby to Riff Rocket in 2023. Looks like a deliberate preparation targeted at the Northerly and this is a nice progression for him, especially as a horse who can settle close handy and be put into the race from the 600.

5. Hemlock Stone (59kg) 

Trainer: Grant & Alana Williams
Jockey: Austin Galati
Barrier: 7

Caused a massive boilover to win the 2025 Perth Cup on New Years Day, much to the delight of his massive Belhus Racing Ownership Group who have celebrated the win for the rest of the calendar year. He went into that race a m81 rater and came out a m103 which has forced the hand of Grant & Alana Williams to race him through the winter WFA Series and then the traditional Railway lead up races in the Eurythmic (SWP 1400) and Lee Steere (WFA 1400). He was a non-required Railway Stakes emergency and drew barrier 20/21 with 61kg in the A.J Scahill Cup (2100) on the same day so he missed the meeting altogether. Puts him in an awkward part of his preparation now. Just another fitness building run for him.

6. Diamond Scene (59kg) 

Trainer: Michael Grantham
Jockey: Brad Parnham
Barrier: 13

Was $18 into $7.50 between the Barrier Draw and 4:58pm on Railway Day in a spirited betting move which on the eachway wasn’t too far off the mark. He settled worse than midfield, peeled to the outside and loomed a top 3 chance before just peaking on the run over the last 100m and finishing fourth behind Watch Me Rock, Western Empire and Sentimental Hero. In 2024 he took out the Luckygray Stakes (1800) before finishing second in the Towton Cup (2200) and winning the ATA (2200) on his way to running second to Hemlock Stone in the 2025 Perth Cup (2400). He has come back even better in 2025 but very wary that the sprint may come out of his legs quickly deeper into the preparation. Went deliberately 5 weeks between runs into the Railway but now has to reproduce a fortnight later. 

7. Sentimental Hero (59kg)

Trainer: Peter Fernie
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Barrier: 4

The Railway Stakes Runner by Runner preview contained the following “M81 to m105 – Peter Fernie is a genius. 7 weeks between runs, 2300 back to 1600m, Listed company to Group One company – genius, not miracle worker”, well – he nearly served up a thick slice of humble pie as the 8 year old rattled home into third for Froggy Newitt. Fastest L1200, 1000, 800 & 600 of the race and will only be better heading out to the 1800m of the Northerly Stakes. In a race without much speed and pressure he could definitely return to his positive racing pattern and may even look to lead them up to give himself a fighting chance of offsetting the Handicap to WFA weight swing. Onwards and upwards to the Van Heemst and Perth Cup!

8. Zipaway (59kg)

Trainer: Neville Parnham
Jockey: Laqdar Ramoly
Barrier: 1

Won the 2023 WA Guineas and then ran a very narrow third in the Northerly Stakes behind Dom To Shoot and Zaaki in a thriller a fortnight later. After a 2 month freshen he headed to Victoria when running third in the Autumn Stakes (Group 2 1400) and third in the Alister Clark (Group 2 2040) to end his three year old preparation. Since that point however, he has had another nine runs and missed the money on each occasion, dropping points from a m103 to a m98 and this campaign he has looked really one paced and dour. Finished 4.5L behind Cosmic Crusader in the Carbine Club and a 3kg weight swing doesn’t look anywhere near enough to be of any threat to him, let alone the rest of the field. The way he’s racing he might be headed to the Cups? But even that is easier said than done with a horse who pulls so hard in the early and middle stages. 

9. Ginger Baker (59kg) 

Trainer: Daniel & Ben Pearce
Jockey: Joey Azzopardi
Barrier: 10

Has a Handicap Rating that exceeds his true ability level, because while a m103 he has only won a SW Autumn Cup (Heavy9, 2200m Handicap) and a Coolgardie Cup (1760m, Handicap). He only has Listed and Group Three third placings to his name in addition to those off Broadway features, in the Strickland (Group 3 2000), Farnley (Listed 1400) and Idyllic Prince (Listed 1300), it’s simply not the form of a horse who is going to be competitive in the Railway or the Northerly Stakes. He jumped $198.70 on the Tote in the Railway and going up 6kg to 59 he has to be even longer in the Northerly. He’ll jump the outsider of the field, but knowing the type of horse he is, he’ll probably beat a couple home. 

10. In Good Order (59kg)

Trainer: Daniel Morton
Jockey: Shaun O’Donnell
Barrier: 5

Just looked to put in the typical flat run of a stayer second-up after nearly causing an upset in the Lee Steere Stakes when looming large to the outside of far sharper stablemate Super Smink at WFA over 1400m. He was actually a noticeable market mover in the Railway Stakes as money came for all the horses drawn low / on speed but he never travelled a winning chance at any stage. Can’t see him having the turn of foot to go with the fancies, especially the 3 year old stablemate at 1800m, but when he heads out to the 2100m of the Van Heemst Stakes in a fortnight that’s where we’ll see his best, before his Grand Final which will be the 2026 Perth Cup. He’s a 70-1 pop even with the good draw.

11. Cosmic Crusader (59kg)

Trainer: Michael Grantham
Jockey: Clint Johnston-Porter
Barrier: 9

Alongside the pair of 3 year olds is the X-Factor addition to the race. The once All-In Favourite for the Railway Stakes had to win either the Asian Beau or the RJ Peters to gain a start and unfortunately circumstances conspired against him and CJP. In the Asian Beau he was left in the breeze in a muddlingly run race where Watch Me Rock and Rope Them In gunned him down late, in the RJ Peters he was held up at crucial stages and was unable to build any momentum and couldn’t sprint over them late. So instead, he had to go to the Carbine Club and quickly reminded us all of the raw ability and talent that he possesses with an effortless 2.6L win. He produced a WFA Adjusted Rating that exceeded Watch Me Rock’s Railway win and that makes him a genuine threat. If you’re team King Of Light then he’s the one you’re more scared of.

12. Depth Of Character (58.5kg)

Trainer: Annabel & Rob Archibald
Jockey: Chris Parnham 
Barrier: 2

Has had a searching preparation, now having his seventh run of the campaign but it’s worth remembering two things: 1) he finished fourth in the Golden Eagle beaten 2.5L by Autumn Glow, who is 8 from 8 and a star of Australian Racing; and 2) he had absolutely no luck whatsoever in the Railway. After drawing 20/20 he jumped from 16 and still was respected in betting, going around a $12 chance, and got caught no better than four deep the trip. He remarkably ran the Fastest L200 of the race and all of a sudden balloons out to 30/40-1 on Northerly Day and having drawn a barrier does look like the forgotten horse in the race, at least in the Top 4/Top 6 type discussions.

13. Vivy Air (57kg)

Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ethan Brown
Barrier: 12 

Is yet to really put a ‘big’ race away, coming into the Northerly Stakes as the winner of the Five Diamonds (Listed 1800m 5yo SWP as the only horse on the 54kg minimum), Big Dance Wild Card (1600m, Handicap) as well as a 3yo BM64 at Seymore and a 2 year old maiden at Geelong but arguably it’s the minor placings that have been more impressive: second in the Group Two Thousand Guineas Prelude at Caulfield in 2023, third in the Group Two Sandown Guineas at Caulfield in 2023, second in the Big Dance in 2024 and 2025 as well as Group Three placings at Newcastle and The Valley. Is a proven fresh horse having won the Big Dance Wild Card this year off a 29 day freshen and is an ultra consistent conveyance in career best form. Likely to hold up at the $8 – $12 marker throughout betting.

14. Admiration Express (57kg)

Trainer: Jason Miller
Jockey: Brad Rawiller 
Barrier: 3

Finished second in this race in 2024 coming out of the RJ Peters 21 days between runs at 1500 to 1800m and put in the best run of her preparation so far when finishing eighth in the Railway. Looking at her winter WFA preparation she finished 4.3L off The Boss Lady at 1400m 2.2L off Western Empire at 1600m and then took out the Strickland Stakes over 2000 by an extending 1.4L margin. It’s clear that as she’s got older she’s wanted further, and so the step to 1800m (and then 2100 of the Van Heemst) will be in her favour and you can read between the lines and see that trainer Jason Miller thinks she’s going good enough to run a cheeky race at odds because he’s been able to convince Brad Rawiller to return to the West and take the ride. Will still jump between 60-1 & 80-1 you’d think.

15. King Of Light (52kg)

Trainer: Daniel Morton 
Jockey: William Pike
Barrier: 8

Just profiles as a Northerly Stakes winner. Since Old Comrade in 2000 there have been a further seven 3 year olds win the race: Megatic (2007), Playing God (2010), Ihtsahymn (2013), Perfect Reflection (2015), Arcadia Queen (2018), Kay Cee (2019), Amelia’s Jewel (2022) and this undefeated star looks a massive chance of adding his name to that list. He had two starts as a 2 year old and was dominant in each of them and then as a 3 year old he has won the Belgravia Stakes (1200), Fairetha Stakes (1400) and WA Guines (1600). William Pike completed the WA Guineas – Railway Stakes double and understandably sided with history (and weight) and went with the 3 year old over Watch Me Rock and with a 7kg weight pull on his maiden rivals who are all 4yo+ geldings he looks the one to beat. 

16. Pure Excess (50kg)

Trainer: Daniel Morton 
Jockey: Steven Parnham
Barrier: 15

Lightly raced and talented filly who broke her maiden in the Group 3 WA Champion Fillies on Day 1 of the Pinnacles by gunning down short priced favourite Talkanco in the final stride. She clocked the fastest L800, 600, 400 & 200 of the race and her fastest furlong split was 200 – Post which is very encouraging heading out to the 1800m of the Northerly Stakes. She may have been a maiden going in but she wasn’t without her share of supporters off the back of a luckless run in the Burgess Queen and managed to overcome a 4kg turnaround on Talkanco in the process. Steven Parnham has won four Northerly Stakes (formerly Kingston Town Classic) and three of those four have been on 3yos (Playing God, Ihysahymn, Kay Cee) and he has undertaken the unenviable task of wasting to ride at 50kg. 

Selection: King of Light

Playing God, Ihtsahymn, Perfect Reflection, Arcadia Queen, Kay Cee, Amelia’s Jewel and now King of Light? That’s just the last 15 years, they’ve got a 42% strike rate in the Group One WFA 1800m feature and this undefeated gelding looks to belong amongst those top line names. He’s 5 from 5 undefeated, he’s got the 52kg, he’s got a barrier to blend in midfield with cover and he’s got the turn of foot to explode into the race from the top of the corner. He was $2.70 pre-draw, $2.60 post-draw and by the time they load Saturday he could be closer to even money.

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