Sports

Digby’s AFL Preview – Round 12

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Sydney v Western Bulldogs, SCG 5.20pm

With his side’s season on the line, the last thing John Longmire needs is a match-up against the Western Bulldogs. In four contests against the Luke Beveridge-coached Bulldogs, Longmire is 0-4, including last season’s grand final. Importantly, two of those losses have come at the SCG.

But that is the scenario Longmire and his Swans face, their finals cause all but torpedoed by a poor performance against Hawthorn last Friday week. Their inability to pressure the Hawks on that occasion cost them dearly and you’d be staggered if that was the case in this match against a Bulldogs side that sends a host of bodies to stoppages and then exits them with slick hands.

The Bulldogs’ balance in attack appeared far better at their most recent outing when mid-sized goal kickers Jake Stringer and Tory Dickson troubled St Kilda. Stringer has been a problem for the Swans on more than one occasion and if his midfield, headed up by Marcus Bontempelli, Luke Dahlhaus, Jack Macrae, Caleb Daniel, Lachie Hunter, Mitch Wallis and Lin Jong bring their intent, the premiers can remain in the top-two hunt.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 15 points

Adelaide v St Kilda, Adelaide Oval 5.50pm

Adelaide coach Don Pyke called for perspective this week as critics continued to whack the Crows for their lacklustre effort in the loss to Geelong last Friday night. Pyke is well within his rights to appeal for calm, but there is no denying the football world will be watching with interest to see how his side fares a week after being touched up.

If you think the Crows just win because they are at home, it might pay to remember that Melbourne got hold of them a week after North Melbourne inflicted their first defeat of the season. The query surrounding the Saints’ chances however is whether their form is good enough. Having moved into the top eight and being talked about as a genuine finals side, St Kilda took two steps back heading into their bye with losses to Sydney and the Western Bulldogs.

With doubt surrounding the state of Nick Riewoldt’s problematic knees, the Saints must get more from key forwards Paddy McCartin and Tim Membrey, and Josh Bruce if he earns a recall. Adelaide’s forward line was poor opposed to the Cats, but their midfield was also eclipsed. Though heavily reliant on Rory Sloane, Adelaide do bat deeper in the following division than the Saints, which will create a swag of chances for a potent forward line.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 28 points

Hawthorn v Gold Coast, MCG 11.45am

In years gone by, a Hawthorn match against Gold Coast was virtually a lock. But we now know that the current Hawks outfit is a far different version to the all-conquering sides that served Alastair Clarkson so well for so long. A case in point was the dreadful first half dished up by Hawthorn last Thursday night opposed to Port Adelaide.

The Suns have had an eventful week following their win over West Coast, with headlines surrounding Jarrod Harbrow and Jack Martin. The loss of Harbrow for his drink-driving indiscretion robs the Suns of rebound from half-back and a cool head. Gold Coast waltzed past Hawthorn when they met in round three this year, with the third quarter illustrating how deep a hole the Hawks were in.

Gary Ablett led the way against the Eagles, but the bruise-free nature of that game is unlikely to be repeated here. The Hawks have been solid enough at the MCG this season and still have a senior core of players capable of lifting their teammates against mediocre opposition.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 18 points

Brisbane v Fremantle, Gabba 2.35pm

There is no denying that Fremantle have been hindered in the past fortnight by the absence of giant ruckman Aaron Sandilands. Though he will miss for a third straight week here with a hamstring issue, it shouldn’t prevent the Dockers from heading into their mid-season bye at a respectable 7-5.

Brisbane are struggling in all areas on the ground and have battled to maintain their competitiveness for a duration of a game. The Dockers have also been guilty of that by virtue of their poor first terms. But any team that boasts the quality of Nat Fyfe, Lachie Neale, David Mundy, Bradley Hill, Stephen Hill, Connor Blakely and Michael Walters through the midfield shouldn’t lose to a developing Lions side.

The forecast of wet weather looms as an obstacle given how poorly Fremantle fared against Adelaide at Adelaide Oval a fortnight ago, but Chris Fagan’s charges aren’t anywhere near the level of the Crows.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 23 points

Essendon v Port Adelaide, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

Understandably buoyant after toppling Geelong late last month, Essendon now find themselves battling to remain in the finals conversation. Back-to-back losses to Richmond and Greater Western Sydney have seen to that. And the task doesn’t get any easier.

Port Adelaide might not have the same appeal of the 2014 Power side that surged to a preliminary final, but this is a mighty effective team nonetheless. The form of high-leaping ruckman Paddy Ryder services a quality midfield led by Ollie Wines, Brad Ebert and Travis Boak and in Charlie Dixon and Robbie Gray, Port have two excellent forwards. The expected return of Chad Wingard from a calf strain is an added bonus.

But where this Port side really excels at present is with its defensive mindset. The Power are miserly and launch wave after wave of attacking raids from half-back. Essendon do have forward firepower through Joe Daniher, Josh Green, Orazio Fantasia and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, but how they fare when they are not in possession, will be crucial.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 19 points

Carlton v GWS, Etihad Stadium 1.20pm

While a host of contenders fumbled and bumbled their way through the first half of the season, Greater Western Sydney have performed at a level many expected. That it has come despite facing serious adversity through a mounting injury toll and during games when losses loomed, only speaks volumes of their fortitude and undeniable talent.

Carlton coach Brendon Bolton knows only too well that his side cannot compete on a talent basis with the Giants. What are his options? Imploring his players to bring maximum effort will be on the table, as will the Blues’ defensive mindset. Patrick Cripps, Bryce Gibbs, Marc Murphy and Matthew Kreuzer will have to set the example in the centre square.

GWS can be devastating with ball in hand bursting from the centre square. That can occur with key stoppage wins or from the back of the square through Nathan Wilson or Zac Williams. Then there is the small matter of Josh Kelly, who has rocketed into Brownlow Medal contention with a string of performances that have oozed silk and worthy of a player reportedly offered $9 million over nine years from North Melbourne.

VERDICT: GWS by 39 points

Melbourne v Collingwood, MCG 1.20pm

The challenges keep coming for Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley. His side’s stirring win over Fremantle last Sunday revived its finals aspirations, but came at a high price. Daniel Wells (calf), Jamie Elliott (ankle) and Tyson Goldsack (shoulder) will miss this traditional encounter after being wounded in Perth.

The loss of Elliott is huge. It is no coincidence that since his return, Collingwood have looked a far more potent outfit, with Darcy Moore in particular flourishing. The Magpies will now need to find a way to kick a total that stretches Melbourne, who have scored freely for the most part this season, despite missing Jesse Hogan for several weeks.

Melbourne’s midfield is their pulse, with Nathan Jones, Jack Viney, Christian Petracca, Jordan Lewis and Dom Tyson effective in tight and in space. But the entire football community is well aware that the Magpies are powered by a high-quality running division — Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar, Taylor Adams, Jack Crisp and Steele Sidebottom. The Magpies used a lot of petrol tickets against the Dockers, while the Demons rested up at home. It could be the difference late here.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 11 points

TIPS

Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, GWS, Melbourne

MULTI

Adelaide, Hawthorn, Fremantle and GWS at $3.06*

NOVELTY

Adelaide (-7.5) and Melbourne (-2.5) to cover their first-quarter handicaps at $3.38*

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*Prices correct as at 5am Thursday 8 June.




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