Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing at Rosehill on Saturday opens up with a Midway where I’m having something each-way CONRAD who looked all set to burst into the finish at Randwick a fortnight back, unfortunately he hit a brick wall & wasn’t tested from that point onwards. He does his best work on good ground which will suit today. LADY ICHIKAWA is only lightly raced with a consistent record, lines up for the hat trick today from a good draw. PUTT FOR DOUGH can improve second-up.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: CONRAD EACH-WAY.

RACE 2

Plenty will depend on whether PASSEGGIATA jumps on terms here, we know she’s a very speedy mare however missing the kick both starts this time in has basically given her no hope, the dynamics of this race all depend on how she jumps. Not a race I’m overly keen on, should we end up with 8 runners I’ll have something each-way MONTE KATE who should settle in the first four stalking the leader/s, definite excuses last start. CONFESS OUR DREAMS’ chances likely depend on PASSEGIATA, left alone will take running down, taken on will be vulnerable.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: MONTE KATE EACH-WAY (small bet/8 starters).

RACE 3

Hugely open Highway with a ton of acceptors. The last time we saw ATMOSPHERIC ROCK at this level he won fresh before having little luck next start, his past couple have been in stronger grade, massive class drop here & he is a proven weight carrier. ZELGARIA finished strongly to land the cash at Ipswich last time out & we know how successful the Matt Dunn stable are when it comes to these races. Poor gate for the resuming GENTILESCHI however she’s a promising type who can find the line strongly fresh.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 5 – 11

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

Last chance for me MISTERKIPCHOGE who looks well suited here coming back from perhaps stronger company, stepping up to a longer trip & scoring some weight relief. He’s been overrated not living up to the early promise he showed however this is certainly not a high-quality assignment. Victorian visitor ROARING ENGINE improved sharply placing at Caulfield last start, fitter third up can figure in the finish. Every chance for KADAVAR last start however he does look well placed here stepping up to a distance he’s one from one over.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 5 – 11

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

BIG watch here on the import GILDED WATER who is owned by King Charles & will be having his first local outing having placed in a recent Warwick Farm trial. Stablemate NAVAL COMMISSION does appear the runner to beat holding a very good overall record & just missing out first up, the rise in distance certainly won’t be a concern. UNIQUE AMBITION was far from disappointing in Group 3 company last start beaten just over a length, should run the trip out fine.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 10 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

Million-dollar Golden Gift for the 2yo’s, could pretty much make a case for all runners! I’m going with TUPAKARA who has only had the single start going around in the Gimcrack when held up in the straight before finishing off well, without doubt should have wound up closer than the 2.15L margin & I like the way she’s trialled leading into this. NORTH ENGLAND & O’OLE have the right race form whilst I also liked the trial from the debutante WEST OF SWINDON, in a good yard must be kept safe.

Numbers: 9 – 2 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet: Follow any market support for TUPAKARA.

RACE 7

Can’t see any reason BELCLARE won’t win again having bolted in the Group 2 Invitation last start at Randwick running slick time from the front. She’s an absolute gun at this 1400m trip having won 8 of her 12 starts over the distance & she should lead once again. Many are tipping MAGIC TIME to turn the tables from last start, there’s no obvious reason to me as to why, both runners are third up & there’s no weight turnaround. OLENTIA was good running on in the same race which wasn’t easy whilst her stablemate the ex-French mare ROSE BLOOM must be kept very safe.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet: BELCLARE TO WIN.

RACE 8

The 2 million dollar Five Diamonds is the day’s highlight according to prizemoney on offer. At the odds available I’m siding with last start winner LINDERMANN who goes into the race third-up off that narrow last start Group 3 victory. He’s been around the mark at Group 1 level in the past & has only been beaten once here on his home circuit. Hopefully he can slide across early & find a spot behind what should be a strong speed. TERRITORY EXPRESS the toughest to beat, tardy before dashing home behind IKNOWASTAR in super-fast time in the Prelude, additional distance ideal. Keeping RELENTLESS VOYAGER very safe.

Numbers: 3 – 11 – 13 – 12

Suggested Bet: LINDERMANN EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

I can find queries for many runners going around here, that’s certainly not the case for the in-form FIRE STAR who just keeps running good races. Yes, he takes a rise in grade today however is winning & should he go around $3 or better I’m happy to be in his corner. IRON MAN backs up from last week, he’s just starting to concern me not winning races he’s in the right spot to do so, I could be off the mark there, time will tell. STROMBOLI not without a chance, he’s another who is just not winning races though.

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: FIRE STAR TO WIN ($3 or better).

RACE 10

Suggest this final race ends up a battle between ROCK EMPIRE & CHICA MOJITO both in the betting ring & on the track. The former will be up front, the latter worse than midfield & that sways me to ROCK EMPIRE. He also likely has more upside having performed well at 4 of his 6 starts with the only unplaced runs coming in stronger company (G1 & G3). CHICA MOJITO well placed back in grade; can she get home over the top of them? FRENCH ENDEAVOUR looks the other chance.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet: ROCK EMPIRE TO WIN/SAVER CHICA MOJITO.

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