Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing at Randwick on Saturday will be on a surface near enough to good, guessing maybe a soft (5)? There’s certainly no rain forecast & race day itself will be sunny with a low 20’s max. The 2yo’s get things underway & we have a decent number of debutantes all of which have done enough at the trials to suggest they are a winning chance, monitor betting leads closely. I’m leaning to the race experience & putting (3) LADY CATALINA on top, she gave a good sight at Scone when taken on & was still in front 50m from the line. (1) SEEIAYE didn’t fire on a heavy track at Eagle Farm however has returned home & romped in a recent trial, expect sharp improvement. (3) LORD HORATIO won well on debut, back to the trials since for another win, (4) KLOCKE & (7) WHY SO HARD may be the best of the newcomers.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 13 – 6

Suggested Bet: Keep an eye on the betting moves…

RACE 2

1500m Midway with likely genuine/average pace up front. I’m going with the winning form suggesting (14) WHOA NELLIE can successfully take the step up in class from provincial company & bring up the hat trick. She’s only had the 4 career starts winning both outings this prep & the way she dashed clear of the opposition last start the 150m is only going to suit. (9) PERFECT JUSTICE hit the line strongly first up in what should be a good form race, needs the additional 100m today. (12) CALLISTEMON may be able to make some use of the good draw; include should the track remain in the soft range only.

Numbers: 14 – 9 – 12 – 4

Suggested Bet: WHOA NELLIE EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 3

(4) EXIT FEE & (8) WAYBURN fought out the finish here a fortnight back with the former doing a shade too well on the line. With a 2kg weight turnaround for the very narrow (0.1L) defeat (8) WAYBURN gets his chance to turn the tables & I’m banking on him doing just that. (12) WEAR THE CROWN certainly not the roughest is worth including in wide exotics. On paper this doesn’t look a race with a long tail.

Numbers: 8 – 4 – 12 – 5

Suggested Bet: WAYBURN TO WIN.

RACE 4

Hard not to be impressed by the win of the imported mare (10) NASEBAH at her Australian debut on the Kensington track. She shot up along the inside once in the straight zooming away to score by almost 4 lengths with more to offer on the line. The drop back in distance here isn’t ideal however she is 3-4 weeks between runs & no doubt the Waller team will have kept her fresh. (5) AMREEKIYAH did a terrific job at Scone when rising in trip off a 7-week break, she didn’t have a lot of luck there & enjoys the drier ground which she gets once again here. (3) BRAVISSIMA highly likely ready to improve third-up.

Numbers: 10 – 5 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet: NASEBAH TO WIN.

RACE 5

(11) SUNSPRITE is 4th emergency for the Queensland Oaks suggesting she’s going to be very lucky to gain a start. That should see her turn up here in what looks a very suitable race. Dominant winning at Muswellbrook two back she then went around here over 1800m at this level hitting the line strongly. She’s bred to appreciate 2000m & gets to that trip today, clearly the top pick. (3) DECALOGUE shook the maiden tag last start & in emphatic style bolting in at Newcastle by over 4 lengths, he did run 4th in a Tulloch Stakes over this trip three starts back. (1) AGENT ZERO next best, he’s shown promise & winning at his past 2 stars suggests he’s now realising it.

Numbers: 11 – 3 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet: SUNSPRITE TO WIN.

RACE 6

Keen on the chances of the resuming (6) ICE KOOL who impressed winning his first two starts before tackling the 3-million-dollar Sunlight where he wasn’t disgraced, he just ended up way too far back & was never a chance of figuring in the finish. He’s had a couple of lead-up trials to ready him for this & he looks all set to go, market? (1) AMAZING EAGLE loomed to win first up however he just peaked on his finish, fitter now he rises a kilo, the 61 is no picnic however he’s a Listed winner & Group 3 placegetter so he deserves to be topweight I guess. (3) BIG RED TEQUILA another who resumes with a good strike & positive lead-up trial form. Confident the winner comes from that trio.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

There does look to be good speed in this race which will suit the strong closer (3) POINT AND SHOOT who just missed out at Scone last start. He’s a horse who needs a big, long run home to wind up which he’ll get here, if there is a concern it’s definitely the 60.5kg. (11) LUGH the big watch, very lightly raced with an impressive strike rate he’s in the right yard & has the benefit of a recent trial where he wasn’t pushed out. (6) MIDNIGHT DYNAMITE is flying however draws out & may have to use too much petrol early on, probably too short in early markets having gone up favourite.

Numbers: 3 – 11 – 6 – 12

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

Listed race which looks a very open one & the early markets certainly back that up. Should we be able to get each-way odds about the resuming (3) GENERAL SALUTE I’ll lean his way. Yes, he does find it a little hard to win however his form is in better races than most if not all of his rivals today & he raced super consistently last prep albeit without winning. (4) ACCREDITED is in a similar boat having run so well last campaign without winning, he races very well here & his fresh record is a good one. No knock (7) CHIDIAC who will again have to raise the bar, she’s been quite good at doing that so far this prep!

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 7 – 16

Suggested Bet: GENERAL SALUTE EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

Tough race to sort as many are dual acceptors at Eagle Farm & may prefer to head north? (5) FORMAL DISPLAY was a cracking run at Scone sitting wide throughout, won all three prior starts this prep & draws well, with the claim for Braith Nock I’d be shocked if he didn’t run well. (6) GOD’S WINDOW in the mix as are many others, should they turn up!

Numbers: 5 – 6 – 10 – 4

Suggested Bet: FORMAL DISPLAY TO WIN.

RACE 10

With a half decent start (16) NITRO would have won first up at Scone however he bungled it & had to play catch up. Zooming to the line late he ran out of ground & time running down all bar the winner. It’s not the first time he’s been slow to jump; it’s a habit & not a good one, the blinkers come off today & the visors go on, hopefully those changes help. (4) GLORIOUS MOMENTS didn’t fire in his 2yo days however as an older horse he’s unbeaten, wide gate to contend with here however with luck is right in the hunt to make it four straight. (15) INVADER ZIM has returned in good order, include in exotics.

Numbers: 16 – 4 – 15 – 11

Suggested Bet: NITRO TO WIN.

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