Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

We race at Randwick on Saturday where the going should be rated good & the weather fine. The meeting gets underway with a very important 2yo affair which will have a strong bearing on the Magic Millions market with the current second favourite for that race making her return to the track. I speak of (3) SHIKI who is the only runner in the field with race experience & that was a very narrow win in the Gimcrack here back in October. Latest trial very impressive winning dominantly from barrier to box in slick time. I should be going with her on top however at the very cramped odds there’s no value & did also like the trial of the debutante (2) WARWOVEN from the Bjorn Baker yard, finished strongly running clear of his rivals to score. (6) NORMAN’S CAY improved plenty between her first & second trials, she should also run well.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet: WARWOVEN TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 2

Mile Midway this week where I’m leaning to the well-drawn & very consistent (6) PERFECT JUSTICE who comes back 400m from his last start aided by a 3-week break. Placed at Newcastle two back over this trip he certainly wasn’t disgraced up to 2000m last start however in my opinion is definitely better placed back to this shorter trip. (5) OAKFIELD SATURN is only lightly raced & progressing nicely, deserves a crack at this level & I’d be surprised if he didn’t measure up. Expect an improved performance from (11) CALLISTEMON.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 11 – 9

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

Big numbers in this week’s Highway. The two with the best form (1) SANTATIME & (2) MOUNT BONA draw very poorly, can’t rule either out however luck will need to be on their side. Amazingly most of the better chances in the race are in the same boat, drawn wide. (10) ROSES IMMIMENTE doesn’t fit that category having landed the pole, fitter for the first up outing she won’t spend a penny in the run just needs gaps in the straight as she will drift back, fingers crossed! (8) SNOWY in the mix also. Very tough race.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet:  Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

Here’s a good, competitive race with plenty of winning form, 10 of the 13 acceptors come into the race off a last start win! I’m going with one who doesn’t & that’s (1) RIPLEY who arguably should be having placed at Flemington on Cup Day from gate 14 of 15 at a starting point not favourable to widely drawn runners. He finished just over 2 lengths behind the very smart Tentyris the start prior & draws perfectly this time around. (6) LANCELOT DU LAC reeled in the leader to score on debut, fitter & wiser however may now be chasing further? (3) PLAINTIFF has done zero wrong, just takes on tougher opposition today.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 3 – 10

Suggested Bet: RIPLEY TO WIN.

RACE 5

Last start winner (6) MORTAL HALO takes a rise in the weights today from 53 to 56.5kg however he’s going to land a soft run from the inside draw & in my opinion is the most progressive horse going around in the race, no reason he can’t get the job done once again. Expect improvement from the Waller trained (10) WILLIE OPPA third-up who was solid to the line late in the same race last start, additional 100m definitely suits however his overall form isn’t up to MORTAL HALO’s. (2) COVERT THINKING can figure with a little luck off the wide gate.

Numbers: 6 – 10 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: MORTAL HALO TO WIN.

RACE 6

Ex-Kiwi galloper (3) KING PEDRO looks perfectly primed to win here rising to 2400m. Bolting in a Class 1 at Gosford (2100m) two starts back he then dropped back to 2000m at Rosehill doing his best work late running into second spot. (2) BRAVE CALL comes into this off a break of 4 weeks, appreciated getting to 2000m last time when winning, fitness? Betting? (11) SHADASHI bolted in a very weak race at Newcastle, only reason I’ll include here is the rise in trip which appears very suitable.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 11 – 4

Suggested Bet: KING PERDO TO WIN.

RACE 7

I’m with the two down the bottom (10) KING’S SECRET & (11) DOLLAR MAGIC who both rise in class however take a decent fall in the weights. At the far better odds on offer I’ll lean to the latter who resumed with a solid placing over this 1100m trip at Rosehill, she places more than she wins which is why she’s double-figures in the market & should be supported on an each-way basis. (10) KING’S SECRET also second up tumbles 8kg & will appreciate a likely solid tempo. (2) ZEALOUSLY has been a little hard to catch of late however from gate one should get plenty of favours.

Numbers: 11 – 10 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: DOLLAR MAGIC EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

(14) JUST PARTY has only registered the single victory from his 15 attempts however he’s been in the placings on a further 6 occasions & beat all bar the winner in a Hawkesbury Guineas & far from disgraced in another couple of Group 3’s in Brisbane last prep. He’ll be peaking third up & carries no weight. (1) SANDPAPER has lost form however will find this a great deal easier; a sharp improvement would not surprise one bit. Ditto (2) KONASANA whilst (9) GALLANT STAR draws a lot better this time around.

Numbers: 14 – 1 – 9 – 2

Suggested Bet: JUST PARTY TO WIN.

RACE 9

I’m with (1) ISLAND DREAM here who drew wide first up & was a victim of the gate being taken back to settle near the tail. She ended up racing deep yet her sectionals home were sound. She’s yet to be beaten second-up, drops in weight & draws a lot more favourably which will see her position up closer to the lead. No knock on the promising Waterhouse/Bott filly (12) VIRGIL’S GIFT who holds an almost perfect record, no weight, can measure up to this stronger grade. (10) BELLA CORAZON draws out however is racing too well to overlook.

Numbers: 1 – 12 – 10 – 2

Suggested Bet: ISLAND DREAM EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 10

He doesn’t win too often (2) PLUNDERING however just may have found the right race here. Not far away when resuming in a tougher race at Rosehill he’s going to strip a lot fitter & holds a strong second-up record having won 2 of 4, interestingly 3 of his 4 career wins have come either first or second-up. Suggest (4) CATOGGIO can improve back to this level, by the same token he needs to though. (6) BARTOLF continues to race well, just needs to overcome the wide draw.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 6 – 3

Suggested Bet: PLUNDERING EACH-WAY.

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