Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

Massive day of racing at Randwick on Saturday with 3 Group 1’s plus a cracking support card. Weather fine, track good with no rain forecast. We open up with an 1800m Midway where I seriously could go in many different directions. (9) AGITA doesn’t win out of turn however his recent form has been quite consistent & he draws a decent gate. (2) CLAIM THE CROWN, (4) KING RATEL & (6) SUNSET PARK all in the mix. Could probably make a case for & against every runner to be honest.

Numbers: 9 – 4 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

First sighting of the new season 2yo’s with the boys going around here, the girls in the next. The Waterhouse/Bott combination have 3 of the 9 acceptors & the trio all won their trials at the official Kensington track session. (2) EVICTION NOTICE & (4) I’M YA HUCKLEBERRY were clearly the best of the trio running almost identical time. Barriers are so often important in these speed driven 1000m early 2yo races & the former has fared better so we’ll lean his way. (7) PARADOXIUM draws the pole & matched I’M YA HUCKLEBERRY for a fair way in their heat, include.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 7 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 2 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

We’ve seen the boys in action now it’s the fillies turn in the Gimcrack. (5) HOME INVASION showed plenty of speed winning her trial & I did like the way she kicked away from the closers half-way down the straight, she looks a ready-made 2yo in the right yard & the rails draw is a big positive. (8) OH YES SHE DID finished well to win her heat, she’ll be strong at the end of this based on that effort. Liked (1) BETTER OFF ALONE’s trial however the gate makes it difficult.

Numbers: 5 – 8 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet: HOME INVASION EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 4

Found this race the hardest of the day & near on impossible predominantly as I’m keen to take on the favourite (1) WITHOUT PEER. What with though? That’s’ the hard part. Chris Waller doesn’t often send around last start maiden winners is Listed races however he’s doing just that here with (5) OFFICIATE who drove home strongly to score over 1550m on wet ground at Canterbury. My knock on a lot of these is running out a strong mile on what they’ve shown to date, which won’t be an issue for this Justify colt who is already likely looking for further.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 8 – 3

Suggested Bet: OFFICIATE EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 5

Found this race very difficult & went looking for something at hopefully good odds. Well, I ended up with (19) IDLE FLYER & then had a look at the odds only to discover she’s favourite! Hopefully she gets out a little from her early market quote however in all fairness she is the horse in the race with upside & her two wins this prep have been dominant. Failed only 1600m try to date however I’d suggest other factors were at play on that occasion. (20) POLYMNIA will improve with the run under her belt, (2) MATUSALEM was good to & through the line fresh, both may need one more run (betting)? (8) POCKETING & (13) PERFUMIST in the mix also.

Numbers: 19 – 20 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: IDLE FLYER TO WIN ($3 or better).

RACE 6

Super keen on the chances of (1) APOCALYPTIC who has been extremely impressive at both wins this prep & if not for being held up badly on debut would be going into the Group 1 today unbeaten. Strong to the line at both wins she really looked the goods her latest when trapped wide throughout before charging clear late, that was the win of a very good filly with a big future. (8) ENVIABLE comes out of the same last start race beaten 4.3L however if not for being held up for clear running until inside the 200m would have finished much closer than that. She’s a real knockout chance here at big odds! (5) QUEEN OF CLUBS will lap up the mile.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet: APOCALYPTIC TO WIN.

RACE 7

The Group 2 Premiere is an Everest lead up with the big one only a fortnight away. We get to see (6) PRIVATE HARRY again who blotted his copybook in The Shorts when defeated for the first time. I was with him on that day however am bailing out here as he didn’t do anywhere near enough in my opinion even allowing for the slightly average start. (1) JIMMYSTAR & (2) BRIASA can beat him home here however which one goes on top? At the better value I’m leaning to (1) JIMMYSTAR who yes will give away a start to his main rivals however he’s the one with the powerful finish & in this small field he might just be able to round them up. (2) BRIASA every chance in The Shorts behind a mare who is just impossible to beat on her day, he’ll take good benefit from that outing.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet: JIMMYSTAR TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 8

The Group 1 Epsom is all about the unbeaten mare (4) AUTUMN GLOW who really does face her acid test this afternoon. Whilst this is not the strongest Epsom of all time it’s still a quality line up & definitely tougher than anything she’s faced within her 5-start career to date. Add to that she’s drawn horribly & who really knows where she’ll end up in the run. I’ll stick though as class generally finds a way of coming to the top in these major races however wouldn’t be taking anything under say $2.60. (2) PERICLES won The Tramway in good fashion fresh & draws to gain land a good run, a couple who closed strongly behind him in that race (6) WILLYDOIT & (5) PIER can again finish in the top 4 whilst (14) LORD PENMAN isn’t the worst roughie going around, this is tough however both runs in the country have been good & he’ll carry no weight.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet: AUTUMN GLOW TO WIN ($2.60 or better).

RACE 9

The final Group 1 of the afternoon is the Metropolitan which looks a very open affair. I’m going with the third-up (10) ETNA ROSSO on an each-way basis at double-figure odds. He may not be the best horse in the race & yes, he doesn’t win out of turn however both runs this time in have been terrific really finding the line strongly. His closing sectionals have been the best in the race on each occasion. (1) VAUBAN gave up quickly last start which is out of character for him, he’s a topliner at his best & I’m expecting him bounce back today. Had my doubts about (7) BIRDMAN last prep however he’s a lot more genuine this time in & progressing well. (9) SOUL OF SPAIN can’t be left out, he’s flying in easier races, can’t knock winning form.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 7 – 9

Suggested Bet: ETNA ROSSO EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 10

This closing race is beyond tough, should be a wide-open market by the time they jump. Maybe a couple of dollars each-way on the resuming Waterhouse/Bott trained (7) SHANGRI LA SPRING who although a winner over further will be well primed to run well fresh having been sharpened up with a couple of lead-up trials, definite market watch though. (5) DISNECK is racing in very consistent form, did feel he had every possible last start though & this is no easier carrying the same weight. (8) RAIKKONEN is another who resumes, trials sound, lightly raced & well up to figuring in this finish. Plenty of other chances, could have easily missed the winner.

Numbers: 7 – 5 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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