Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Newcastle Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Hunter Day at Newcastle kicks off with the Max Lees Classic for the youngsters. I’ve liked both trials from the debutante GRAM who clocked in a soft third in the first before picking up nicely the final 200m running in to second the latest. I’m expecting another debutante MARKET MAGIC to also run well, strong to the line under some pressure his only trial we know he’ll be right up on speed from the outset. With so many first starters in the race market moves will prove all important.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: GRAM/MARKET MAGIC TO WIN (small bets)

RACE 2

Tricky looking Midway, wouldn’t be taking short odds about any runner. RESISTABLE may be the safe way out however on an each-way basis as a strong 1600m is not a box she’s ticked as yet. She is in form though, is down a little in the weights & maps very well suggesting she’ll get her chance. No luck for TOESONTHENOSE in the Four Pillars being posted deep without cover, winning chance however doesn’t deserve to be short odds. MODERN MILLIE in the mix.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet: RESISTABLE EACH-WAY (small bet)

RACE 3

This is one tough Highway! I’m going way out on a limb suggesting a couple of dollars each-way ROSSY’S TYPA GIRL who gets back & is likely not well suited from an inside draw however this track has a long straight & should she gain clear running don’t be surprised if she runs home well. SATAY CHICKEN has been racing consistently in Brisbane, the drop back to a mile is much more suitable & he can race on speed which is an advantage here as there doesn’t look to be a lot of it on paper. Chances don’t end there.

Numbers: 12 – 4 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet: ROSSY’S TYPA GIRL EACH-WAY (very small bet)

RACE 4

CHASE MY CROWN doesn’t win out of turn however he she is consistent to the point of finishing close up even when out of the placings. Well drawn here she should land a good run in the race with the light weight & has run well at this level in recent times. Wouldn’t be the least surprised to see FALL FOR CINDY run a race however she needs luck as from the wide draw I doubt she’ll roll forward. PORTRAY will have reached peak fitness now & should find this a little easier than last start, does have plenty of weight to carry though.

Numbers: 8 – 4 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 5

Drawn the inside gate PERVADE looks well placed to make it two on the trot here. He should score the right run & certainly won’t mind the step up in in distance as he has scored over this trip & in fact right up to 2100m. Likely favourite I’MINTOWIN isn’t proven beyond the 1500m of his last start win, he’s in great hands though & in no way am I saying he can’t get the job done again. CAMAGUEY can figure with a touch of luck off the wide gate.

Numbers: 6 – 12 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet: PERVADE TO WIN

RACE 6

Interesting race. NUMERIAN has lengths on these however gives away plenty of weight as a result, at least 9kg to half the field however even with that advantage I doubt many of those runners will end up beating him home. He hasn’t won for some time though which has to be of some concern, I’ll take him on! SKY LAB should be ready now, definitely finishes closer at Rosehill with clearer running early in the straight. STROKE OF LUCK & STOCKMAN come out of the same race & are definitely in the mix once again.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet: SKY LAB EACH-WAY

RACE 7

The Group 3 Spring Stakes looks a very competitive affair with all the big-name stables represented. He’s been up a while however if there’s a run left in KINTYRE he’s surely going to prove hard to beat here. Less than a length away two back this level officially (definitely stronger) before racing wide throughout in the Group 1 Spring Champion, this is a much easier assignment. INVINCIBLE SPY is unbeaten, proven at the trip & will race forward, must include. UNTIL VALHALLA is almost unbeaten, in the right hands must be included.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 9 – 12

Suggested Bet: KINTYRE EACH-WAY (small bet)

RACE 8

The Million-Dollar Hunter is the days feature. I’m with the super-consistent FAR TOO EASY who never runs a bad race & finally draws a gate although the extreme inside isn’t the most ideal as he will give a start. Anyway, should he see daylight look out as he’ll be motoring to the line with the light weight. KING OF SPARTA races best when freshened up & that’s the case here, he’s another who will be running home hard down this long straight. I AM ME best of the on-speed runners?

Numbers: 11 – 3 – 4 – 14

Suggested Bet: FAR TOO EASY EACH-WAY

RACE 9

No surprise to see TAVI TIME being well-supported in early markets as his first-up effort was very good making ground the majority of the straight under no pressure whatsoever. Lightly raced with a good record & plenty of upside he strips fitter & will be suited by the step up in distance. MANBEHINDTHEMONEY is yet to place at two fresh attempts, the first was overseas, the second was at Rosehill on heavy ground when not far away, monitor market moves closely. ROGUE BEAR better suited back out to the mile.

Numbers: 11 – 1 – 3 – 10

Suggested Bet: TAVI TIME TO WIN

RACE 10

MUCH MUCH BETTER narrowly beat home KA BLING when they last met (recently) with the tempo suiting the winner. KA BLING is better off at the weights this time around & although out of the placings at a run since that outing he did lump 59kg & is much better placed back down to 53kg today. Blinkers on did the trick with CAPO STRADA last start, no reason he can’t hold that form now.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet: KA BLING EACH-WAY

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